Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 15-03-2018.

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes edged down one point to a level of 70 in March from a downwardly revised February reading on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) but remains in strong territory.

"Builders' optimism continues to be fueled by growing consumer demand for housing and confidence in the market," said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel, a custom home builder from LaPlace, La. "However, builders are reporting challenges in finding buildable lots, which could limit their ability to meet this demand."

We do have a Trade Deficit with Canada, as we do with almost all countries (some of them massive). P.M. Justin Trudeau of Canada, a very good guy, doesn't like saying that Canada has a Surplus vs. the U.S.(negotiating), but they do...they almost all do...and that's how I know!

Results from the March Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued growth for the region's manufacturing sector. Although the survey's index for general activity moderated, the indexes for new orders and shipments improved. The survey's future indexes, measuring expectations for the next six months, reflected continued optimism.

The diffusion index for current general activity remained positive but declined, from 25.8 in February to 22.3 this month. Nearly 37 percent of the manufacturers reported increases in overall activity this month, while 14 percent reported decreases.

The price index for U.S. imports rose 0.4 percent in February, the seventh consecutive monthly increase, after advancing 0.8 percent in January. The last time the index declined on a monthly basis was a 0.2-percent drop in July 2017. Import prices advanced 3.5 percent for the 12-month period ended in February, matching the 12-month rise in November. Those were the largest annual increases since the index rose 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ended April 2017.

Export prices increased 0.2 percent in February after rising 0.8 percent in January. The last time the index declined on a monthly basis was a 0.1-percent decrease in June 2017. In February, higher prices for both nonagricultural and agricultural exports contributed to the increase in overall export prices.
The price index for U.S. exports increased 3.3 percent over the past 12 months.

In the week ending March 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 226,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 231,000 to 230,000. The 4-week moving average was 221,500, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 222,500 to 222,250.

• Says British PM's accusation of Russian aggression is extraordinarily dangerous

The Producer and Import Price Index rose in February 2018 by 0.3% compared with the previous month, reaching 102.6 points (December 2015=100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for chemical and pharmaceutical products. Compared with February 2017, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 2.3%. These are some of the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

• 2018 inflation at 0.6 pct (previous forecast was for 0.7 pct)

• 2019 inflation at 0.9 pct (previous forecast was for 1.1 pct)

• Says will remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration

• Negative interest rate and the SNB's willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary remain essential

• Will regularly reassess the need for an adjustment of the countercyclical capital buffer

In February 2018, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) was unchanged, following a -0.1% downturn in January. Food prices barely edged down (−0.1%), in the wake of fresh product prices. Those of "manufactured product" decreased again, but less markedly than in January (−0.3% after −2.2%). Services prices slowed down for the second consecutive month (+0.1% after +0.2%). Lastly, energy prices were stable, the decrease in petroleum product prices being offset by a rise in gas and electricity prices.

Seasonally adjusted, consumer prices dropped by 0.3%, after an acceleration to +0.7% in January.

Year on year, consumer prices hardly fell in February 2018: +1.2% after +1.3%. This slight decrease in the year-on-year inflation resulted from a lesser rise in prices of services, food and tobacco. The "manufactured product" prices slightly rose and those of energy were up at the same pace as in the previous month.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2517 (2722)

$1.2490 (1975)

$1.2469 (1334)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2368

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2316 (3873)

$1.2277 (3779)

$1.2234 (3653)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date April, 6 is 94767 contracts (according to data from March, 14) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2150 (4656);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4128 (2546)

$1.4091 (1732)

$1.4047 (307)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3984

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3906 (1295)

$1.3843 (3299)

$1.3807 (1229)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date April, 6 is 31734 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4300 (2737);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date April, 6 is 28678 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3800 (3502);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.90 versus 0.89 from the previous trading day according to data from March,14

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Has no reason to believe Trump doesn't believe in keeping the world's international reserve currency steady

• Says if tax rates, regulations and government spending are kept low and dollar kept strong and steady you will have terrific economy

• Thinks China has earned a tough response on trade

• He was relieved by planned exclusions to announced steel and aluminum tariffs

• Does not think announced tariffs will hurt the U.S. economy

• BoJ's powerful monetary easing has had significant impact on financial institutions' profits

• Don't see serious problem emerging in Japan's financial intermediation now

Economic activity, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), was up 0.6 percent in the December 2017 quarter, the second quarter in a row it rose 0.6 percent.

Higher activity in the service industries was offset by a fall in the primary industries. Goods-producing industries also rose.

Activity in the service industries rose 1.1 percent, with 10 of the 11 service industries recording increases in the December 2017 quarter. Overall growth in the service industries was led by a 2.3 percent increase in business services, particularly computer system design and related services, and advertising, market research, and management services.