Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 16-02-2015.

Germany's Bundesbank released its monthly report on Monday. The central bank said that German economic growth in 2015 could be stronger than forecasts made in the autumn of last year.

Bundesbank urged Greek banks receiving emergency funding to improve their liquidity positions.

Statistics New Zealand released the retail sales data on Monday. Retail sales in New Zealand rose 1.7% in the fourth quarter, up from a 1.6% increase in the previous quarter. That was the highest pace since the June 2012 quarter.

The Q3 figure was revised up from a 1.5% increase.

The rise was driven by sales in vehicles and parts. Spending on vehicles and parts jumped 3.4% in the fourth quarter.

Sales excluding automobiles climbed 1.5% in the fourth quarter, after a 1.4% gain in the previous quarter. The Q3 figure was revised up from a 1.4% rise.

USDJPY 117.00 (USD 2.2bln) 118.85 (USD 500m) 120.00 (USD 2.2bln)

EURUSD 1.1300-10 (EUR 781m) 1.1450 (EUR 490m)

GBPUSD 1.5400 (GBP 263m)

USDCHF 0.9000 (USD 887m) 0.9225 (USD 220m)

AUDUSD 0.7675-85 (AUD 1.7bln)

NZDUSD 0.7400 (NZD 360m)

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) February +1.4% +2.1%

00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) February +8.2% +6.6%

00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) January +3.0% -1.5%

00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) January -1.0% +0.2%

02:00 China New Loans January 697 1355 1470

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) December +1.0% +1.0% +0.8%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally) December +0.3% +0.3% +1.0%

10:00 Eurozone Trade balance unadjusted December 21.2 Revised From 20.0 21.3 24.3

10:00 Eurozone Eurogroup Meetings

11:00 Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report

13:00 U.S. Bank holiday

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies in the absence of any major economic reports from the U.S. Markets in the U.S. are closed for the Presidents' Day Holiday.

The greenback remained under pressure after Friday's the weaker-than-expected Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index. The index declined to 93.6 in February from a final reading of 98.1 in January, missing expectations for an increase to 98.2.

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the better-than-expected trade data from the Eurozone. Eurozone's trade surplus increased to €24.3 billion in December from €21.2 billion in November, exceeding expectations for a rise to €21.3 billion. November's figure was revised up from a surplus of €20.0 billion.

The increase was driven by lower imports.

Exports climbed by 1.0% in December, while imports fell 2.0%.

Exports were boosted by a weaker euro and lower oil prices.

Investors remained cautious due to new debt deal talks between the European Union and Greece.

The British pound traded lower against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from the U.K.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair decreased to $1.5370

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

EUR/USD

Offers 1.1450-55 1.1485 1.1500 1.1530 1.1550

Bids 1.1380 1.1350 1.1320 1.1300 1.1270-75 1.1240-50 1.1200

GBP/USD

Offers 1.5450 1.5465 1.5480 1.5500

Bids 1.5350 1.5325-30 1.5300 1.5280 1.5250 1.5200-10 1.5185

EUR/JPY

Offers 136.00-10 136.50 136.80 137.00

Bids 135.00 134.80 134.50 134.00

USD/JPY

Offers 119.00 119.20 119.50 119.80 120.00 120.20-30 120.50

Bids 118.20 118.00 117.80 117.50

EUR/GBP

Offers 0.7445-50 0.7470 0.7490-7500 0.7510-20

Bids 0.7370-75 0.7350 0.7325 0.7300

AUD/USD

Offers 0.7820 0.7840 0.7860 0.7880-85 0.7900 0.7920 0.7950

Bids 0.7730 0.7700 0.7650 0.7625 0.7600

Eurostat released trade data for the Eurozone on Monday. Eurozone's trade surplus increased to €24.3 billion in December from €21.2 billion in November, exceeding expectations for a rise to €21.3 billion. November's figure was revised up from a surplus of €20.0 billion.

The increase was driven by lower imports.

Exports climbed by 1.0% in December, while imports fell 2.0%.

Exports were boosted by a weaker euro and lower oil prices.

For 2014 as whole, the trade surplus widened to €194.8 billion.

USDJPY 117.00 (USD 2.2bln) 118.85 (USD 500m) 120.00 (USD 2.2bln)

EURUSD 1.1300-10 (EUR 781m) 1.1450 (EUR 490m)

GBPUSD 1.5400 (GBP 263m)

USDCHF 0.9000 (USD 887m) 0.9225 (USD 220m)

AUDUSD 0.7675-85 (AUD 1.7bln)

NZDUSD 0.7400 (NZD 360m)

Asia's second largest economy exited recession in the final quarter of last year although growth was weaker than expected as household and corporate spending were disappointing. The country slid into recession last year. Sunday's data on Japan's GDP for the fourth quarter came in at +0.6% from -0.6% (revised from +1.5%) in the previous quarter, following two quarters of contraction. Year on year GDP rose by +2.2% compared to -2.3% (revised from +2.0%).

Economic Minister Akira Amari said that the economy was on track for a recovery with signs consumer sentiment picking up.

Month on month Industrial Production rose less than expected +0.8% in December compared to +1.0% in November. Analysts expected an increase of +1.0%.

Last week the yen rose as insiders said the BoJ sees further monetary easing as counterproductive for now as more stimulus would further hurt the currency. Now all eyes are on BoJ Governor Kuroda's speech scheduled for Wednesday ending BoJ two-day policy meeting.

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual

00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) February +1.4% +2.1%

00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) February +8.2% +6.6%

00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) January +3.0% -1.5%

00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) January -1.0% +0.2%

02:00 China New Loans January 697 1355 1470

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) December +1.0% +1.0% +0.8%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally) December +0.3% +0.3% +1.0%

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies after data on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly worsened in February. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index declined to 93.6 in February from a final reading of 98.1 in January, missing expectations for an increase to 98.2. That was the highest level since January 2004. The harsh weather may have been a key factor of the drop.

The U.S. import price index dropped by 2.8 percent in January, beating expectations for a 3.1% fall, after a 1.9% decline in December. That was the biggest drop since December 2008.

Today U.S. markets are closed for a public holiday.

The euro strengthened against the greenback as data from Germany, the Eurozone's biggest economy, showed that the economy grew at +0.7%, more than twice as fast as the forecasted +0.3%. Today further negotiations between Greece and E.U.-officials will take place. Last week's talks ended without an agreement. Over the weekend Alexis Tsirpas, Greece's Prime Minister, said in an interview he wants to create a "win-win" situation for both sides.

The Australian dollar traded stronger on Monday. New Motor Vehicle Sales declined by -1.5% in January after they rose +3.0% in December. Year on year they rose +0.2% compared to -1.0%.

Data from China, Australia's biggest trade partner, showed that New Loans rose to 1470, above estimates of 1355.

New Zealand's dollar advanced for a third day against the greenback in Asian trade as Retail Sales rose. Retail Sales rose by +1.7% from +1.6% (revised from +1.5%), year on year Retail Sales in the fourth quarter rose +1.5% compared to +1.5% (revised from +1.4%).

The Japanese yen traded stronger against the greenback on Monday Asia's second largest economy exited recession in the final quarter of last year although growth was weaker than expected. Sunday's data on Japan's GDP for the fourth quarter came in at +0.6% from -0.6% (revised from +1.5%) in the previous quarter. Year on year GDP rose by +2.2% compared to -2.3% (revised from +2.0%). Month on moth Industrial Production rose less than expected +0.8% in December compared to +1.0% in November. Analysts expected an increase by +1.0%. Last week the yen rose as insiders said the BoJ sees further monetary easing as counterproductive for now as more stimulus would further hurt the currency. Now all eyes are on BoJ Governor Kuroda's speech scheduled for Wednesday.

EUR/USD: the euro traded stronger against the greenback

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

10:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. December 20.0 21.3

10:00 Eurozone Eurogroup Meetings

11:00 Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report

13:00 U.S. Bank holiday

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1574 (5738)

$1.1520 (2859)

$1.1479 (1793)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1417

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1321 (3685)

$1.1275 (3945)

$1.1216 (3994)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 6 is 102527 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (5738);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 6 is 105158 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (5456);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.03 versus 1.03 from the previous trading day according to data from February, 13

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.5702 (960)

$1.5604 (1992)

$1.5507 (2698)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.5433

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.5292 (1763)

$1.5195 (2087)

$1.5097 (1765)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 6 is 27121 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5500 (2698);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 6 is 32976 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5200 (2087);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.22 versus 1.21 from the previous trading day according to data from February, 13

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.