Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
01:30 | Australia | Leading Index | March | 0% | |
02:00 | China | Retail Sales y/y | March | 8.2% | 8.4% |
02:00 | China | Industrial Production y/y | March | 5.3% | 5.9% |
02:00 | China | Fixed Asset Investment | March | 6.1% | 6.3% |
02:00 | China | GDP y/y | Quarter I | 6.4% | 6.3% |
04:30 | Japan | Industrial Production (MoM) | February | -3.4% | 1.4% |
04:30 | Japan | Industrial Production (YoY) | February | 0.3% | -1.0% |
08:00 | Eurozone | Current account, unadjusted, bln | February | 9.3 | 17.2 |
08:30 | United Kingdom | Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) | March | 2.2% | 2.1% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) | March | 0.6% | 0.3% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) | March | 3.7% | 3.9% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | Retail Price Index, m/m | March | 0.7% | 0.2% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) | March | 0.1% | 0.2% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | Retail prices, Y/Y | March | 2.5% | 2.6% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y | March | 1.8% | 1.9% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | HICP, m/m | March | 0.5% | 0.3% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | HICP, Y/Y | March | 1.9% | 2% |
09:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y | March | 1% | 0.8% |
09:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI | March | 0.3% | 1% |
09:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI, Y/Y | March | 1.5% | 1.4% |
09:00 | Eurozone | Trade balance unadjusted | February | 1.5 | 12.3 |
12:30 | Canada | Trade balance, billions | February | -4.25 | -3.5 |
12:30 | U.S. | International Trade, bln | February | -51.1 | -53.5 |
12:30 | Canada | Consumer Price Index m / m | March | 0.7% | 0.7% |
12:30 | Canada | Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y | March | 1.5% | |
12:30 | Canada | Consumer price index, y/y | March | 1.5% | 1.9% |
14:00 | U.S. | Wholesale Inventories | February | 1.4% | 0.5% |
14:30 | U.S. | Crude Oil Inventories | April | 7.029 | 7.329 |
15:30 | Eurozone | ECB's Lautenschläger Speech | |||
16:30 | U.S. | FOMC Member Harker Speaks | |||
16:30 | U.S. | FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks | |||
18:00 | U.S. | Fed's Beige Book |
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
01:30 | Australia | Leading Index | March | 0% | |
02:00 | China | Retail Sales y/y | March | 8.2% | 8.4% |
02:00 | China | Industrial Production y/y | March | 5.3% | 5.9% |
02:00 | China | Fixed Asset Investment | March | 6.1% | 6.3% |
02:00 | China | GDP y/y | Quarter I | 6.4% | 6.3% |
04:30 | Japan | Industrial Production (MoM) | February | -3.4% | 1.4% |
04:30 | Japan | Industrial Production (YoY) | February | 0.3% | -1.0% |
08:00 | Eurozone | Current account, unadjusted, bln | February | 9.3 | 17.2 |
08:30 | United Kingdom | Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) | March | 2.2% | 2.1% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) | March | 0.6% | 0.3% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) | March | 3.7% | 3.9% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | Retail Price Index, m/m | March | 0.7% | 0.2% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) | March | 0.1% | 0.2% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | Retail prices, Y/Y | March | 2.5% | 2.6% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y | March | 1.8% | 1.9% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | HICP, m/m | March | 0.5% | 0.3% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | HICP, Y/Y | March | 1.9% | 2% |
09:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y | March | 1% | 0.8% |
09:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI | March | 0.3% | 1% |
09:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI, Y/Y | March | 1.5% | 1.4% |
09:00 | Eurozone | Trade balance unadjusted | February | 1.5 | 12.3 |
12:30 | Canada | Trade balance, billions | February | -4.25 | -3.5 |
12:30 | U.S. | International Trade, bln | February | -51.1 | -53.5 |
12:30 | Canada | Consumer Price Index m / m | March | 0.7% | 0.7% |
12:30 | Canada | Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y | March | 1.5% | |
12:30 | Canada | Consumer price index, y/y | March | 1.5% | 1.9% |
14:00 | U.S. | Wholesale Inventories | February | 1.4% | 0.5% |
14:30 | U.S. | Crude Oil Inventories | April | 7.029 | 7.329 |
15:30 | Eurozone | ECB's Lautenschläger Speech | |||
16:30 | U.S. | FOMC Member Harker Speaks | |||
16:30 | U.S. | FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks | |||
18:00 | U.S. | Fed's Beige Book |
Analysts at TD Securities expect the Canadian headline CPI to firm to 1.9% y/y in March, reflecting the second consecutive 0.7% m/m advance.
The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) announced on Tuesday its
housing market index (HMI) rose one point to 63 in April, the highest reading
since October 2018.
Economists forecast the HMI to increase to 63.
A reading over 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than
poor.
Two out of the three
HMI components were higher this month. The indicator gauging current sales
conditions rose one point to 69, and the component measuring the traffic of
prospective buyers increased three points to 47. These gains, however, were
offset by a 1-point drop in the measure charting sales expectations in the next
six months, to 71 in April.
NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde said: “Builders report solid demand for new
single-family homes but they are also grappling with affordability concerns
stemming from a chronic shortage of construction workers and buildable lots.”
Meanwhile, NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz added: “Ongoing job growth,
favorable demographics and a low-interest rate environment will help to
modestly spark sales growth in the near term. However, supply-side headwinds
that are putting upward pressure on housing costs will limit more robust growth
in the housing market.”
The Federal Reserve reported on Tuesday that the U.S. industrial production edged down 0.1 percent m-o-m in March, following an upwardly revised 0.1 percent m-o-m increase in February (originally flat m-o-m performance).
Economists had forecast industrial production would rise 0.2 percent m-o-m in March.
According to the report, manufacturing production was unchanged m-o-m in March after dropping in both January and February. At the same time, the index for utilities increased 0.2 percent m-o-m, while mining output decreased 0.8 percent m-o-m.
Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.2 percentage point m-o-m in March to 78.8 percent. That was 0.3 percentage points below economists’ forecast and 1.0 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2018) average.
In y-o-y terms, the industrial output rose 2.8 percent in March, following an unrevised 3.6 percent advance in the prior month. That marked the slowest rate of growth in industrial production since May 2018.
Statistics Canada released its Monthly Survey of Manufacturing on Tuesday, which showed that the Canadian manufacturing sales fell 0.2 percent m-o-m in February to CAD56.64 billion, following a revised 0.8 percent m-o-m increase in January (originally a 1.0 percent m-o-m gain).
Economists had anticipated flat m-o-m performance for February.
According to the survey, sales declined in 15 of 21 industries, representing 65.9 percent of total manufacturing sales. The largest drops were in the motor vehicle assembly (-4.4 percent m-o-m) and wood products (-5.9 percent m-o-m) industries. However, these decreases were largely offset by gains in the petroleum and coal product (+7.1 percent m-o-m, paper (+6.8 percent m-o-m) and machinery (+3.3 percent m-o-m) industries.
Overall, sales of durable goods fell 1.4 percent m-o-m in February, while sales of non-durable goods rose 1.2 percent m-o-m.
The Commons will get a new vote on a customs union in a few weeks in order to try to break the Brexit deadlock, amid warnings that Theresa May’s Conservatives are walking into a “wipe-out” in the European elections, Evening Standard reported.
Veteran MP Frank Field told the Standard that he plans to move a motion with the Father of the House, Kenneth Clarke, to show that a smooth trading bloc is a solution that commands cross-party support.
Mr. Field’s move came as polls showed Tory support plunging following Mrs. May’s decision to allow European elections to go ahead if she fails to get her thrice-rejected withdrawal agreement through the Commons.
A YouGov survey found the Tories down to 28 percent in Westminster elections and 16 percent in the European contest.
James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, suggests that the key takeaway from the latest UK jobs report is the continued strength in wage growth.
Several ECB policymakers think the bank’s economic projections are too optimistic as growth weakness in China and trade tensions linger, four sources with direct knowledge of discussions said.
A “significant minority” of rate-setters in last week’s policy meeting expressed doubt that a long projected growth recovery is coming in the second half of the year and some even questioned the accuracy of the ECB’s projection models, given their long history of downward revisions, the sources said.
With the ECB using the these projections as a key input into policy decision, more cuts in growth and inflation forecasts would raise the chance that the bank’s first post crisis rate, now seen next year, is delayed even longer.
China's fiscal spending increased 15% during January-March from year ago levels to support economic growth, and local governments quickened their bond issuance for key projects, the finance ministry said. For the whole of 2018, fiscal spending rose 8.7% from 2017 levels.
"The relatively strong fiscal spending provided forceful funding support for implementing major national development strategies, pushing reforms in key areas and improving people's livelihood. Faster issuance of local government bonds also helped stabilise economic growth," Hao Lei, a finance ministry official told.
Local government bond issuance stood at 1.18 trillion yuan in January-March period, compared with a total issuance worth 2.17 trillion yuan last year.
According to first estimates from Eurostat, in February 2019 compared with January 2019, seasonally adjusted production in the construction sector increased by 3.0% in the euro area (EA19) and by 2.3% in the EU28. In January 2019, production in construction fell by 0.8% in the euro area and rose by 0.6% in the EU28. In February 2019 compared with February 2018, production in construction increased by 5.2% in the euro area and by 4.9% in the EU28.
In the euro area in February 2019, compared with January 2019, civil engineering rose by 6.4% and building construction by 2.1%. In the EU28, civil engineering rose by 5.7% and building construction by 1.5%.
In the euro area in February 2019, compared with February 2018, civil engineering rose by 11.9% and building construction by 3.3%. In the EU28, civil engineering rose by 12.8% and building construction by 3.2%.
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany recorded an increase of 6.7 points in April 2019, with the corresponding indicator entering positive territory at 3.1 points. Although the indicator still remains below the long-term average of 22.2 points, economic expectations have recovered significantly from its low point in October 2018, having climbed almost 28 points since. Over the same period, however, the assessment of the economic situation in Germany has deteriorated considerably. The corresponding indicator saw yet another decrease in April and currently stands at 5.5 points, 5.6 points lower than in the previous month.
Financial market experts’ sentiment concerning the economic development of the eurozone has also improved once again, with the corresponding indicator climbing 7.0 points to a current level of 4.5 points compared to the previous month. By contrast, the assessment of the current economic situation in the eurozone saw a further decrease, falling by 6.6 points to a current level of minus 13.2 points compared to March.
According to the report from Office for National Statistics, the UK unemployment rate was estimated at 3.9%; it has not been lower since November 1974 to January 1975.
The UK employment rate was estimated at 76.1%, higher than for a year earlier (75.4%) and the joint-highest figure on record.
The UK economic inactivity rate was estimated at 20.7%, lower than for a year earlier (21.2%) and the joint-lowest figure on record.
Excluding bonuses, average weekly earnings for employees in UK were estimated to have increased by 3.4%, before adjusting for inflation, and by 1.5%, after adjusting for inflation, compared with a year earlier.
Including bonuses, average weekly earnings for employees in UK were estimated to have increased by 3.5%, before adjusting for inflation, and by 1.6%, after adjusting for inflation, compared with a year earlier.
Profits at China's centrally-held state firms rose 13.1% in the first quarter from a year earlier to 426.5 billion yuan, the regulator for state assets said. That was slower than the 20.9% growth in earnings for the first quarter of 2018 and the 16.7% increase for the whole of 2018.
For March only, profits increased 10.8% on-year, slowing from the January-February gain of 15.3%, according to a statement by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC).
Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that the USD/CHF pair is a bid near term and faces resistance initially at the 1.0052/15th March high and the 1.0075/78.6% retracement.
“It is possible that we will see the market stall here and ease back to the 200 day ma at .9927. This guards the March low at .9895 and the .9866 6 month support line and the .9716 recent low. The 1.0075/78.6% retracement, is viewed as the last defence for the top of the range at 1.1028, where we would again allow for failure. A break above the 1.0128 November high would introduce scope to the 1.0343 December 2016 peak.”
Gold is poised to move higher later this year, powered by the Fed aggressive stance on interest rates and lingering global uncertainties, a precious metals expert said.
Central banks have been buying gold at levels not seen in 50 years, as part of a broader diversification of reserves away from currencies including the U.S. dollar.
Gold prices have largely been stuck in a range of between $1,217 to $1,330, according to Martin Huxley, global head of precious metals at INTL FCStone. But he said that could change.
“I think that we expect gold to continue to trade pretty much within that range for the coming months,” Huxley told. “But over the second half of the year we expect it then to grind higher, and potentially it could test $1,400 towards the end of the year,” he added.
Huxley said the Fed signal that there will be no more interest rate hikes this year has helped boost the outlook for gold and other metals.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that the Federal Reserve’s independence is important globally, while refusing to comment on President Donald Trump’s latest attack on the Fed.
Mnuchin was asked about Trump’s tweet Sunday that if the Fed had done its job properly, the stock market would be 5,000 to 10,000 points higher and overall growth would have been “well over” 4% last year instead of 3%.
Mnuchn said, “In my role as secretary, it is inappropriate for me to comment. I do think that the Fed independence is something that the world looks to, and I think that the dollar being the reserve currency is very important.”
TD Securities analysts point out that the UK’s employment report for the three months ending February is released and will be a key economic release for today’s session.
“We look for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.9%, while headline wage growth rises a tick to 3.5% 3m/y and ex-bonus wages slip a tick to 3.3% 3m/y. The important private sector regular pay figure is likely to remain stable at 3.5% 3m/y for the fourth consecutive month, its fastest pace of growth since 2008.”
China's stimulus measures will shore up economic growth this year and next but may undermine the country's drive to control debt and worsen structural distortions over the medium term, the OECD said.
Beijing has stepped up fiscal stimulus to prevent a sharper slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. Local governments will be allowed to issue 2.15 trillion yuan worth of special purpose bonds in 2019 to fund infrastructure projects, a jump of 59% from last year.
"Infrastructure stimulus could lift growth over the projection horizon, but it could lead to a further build-up of imbalances and capital misallocation, and thereby weaker growth in the medium term. The stimulus risks increasing once again corporate sector indebtedness and, more generally, reversing progress in deleveraging," the OECD said in its latest survey on China's economy.
According to analysts at Danske Bank, in Germany, focus is on the ZEW reading for April today, ahead of the important PMIs on Thursday.
“After a difficult start to the year, we already saw rays of light in the March ZEW reading with the expectations-current conditions spread turning positive for the first time since 2012. In April, we see scope for further upside for the expectations component in light of better recent data not least out of China, while we expect the current situation assessment to stabilise around the current level. In the UK, the jobs report for February is due out, which will likely point to solid employment growth, after GDP growth surprised on the upside last week.”
New home prices in China grew slightly faster in March after growth slowed the previous month, putting a floor under the cooling market, as Beijing rolled out stimulus to boost the economy.
Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities rose 0.6% in March, quickening from a 0.5% gain in February, according data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
On the whole, it logged the 47th straight month of price increases. Most of the 70 cities surveyed by the NBS reported monthly price increases for new homes, and the number climbed sharply to 65 from 57 in February.
On an annual basis, home prices rose 10.6% in March, the highest since April 2017, and also accelerating from a 10.4% gain in February.
As banks loosen lending standards and lower mortgage rates, buyers are returning to the market in anticipation of bigger price gains.
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1433 (4509)
$1.1405 (3911)
$1.1375 (278)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1304
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1277 (3162)
$1.1238 (3246)
$1.1194 (2960)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date May, 3 is 71175 contracts (according to data from April, 15) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (5862);
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.3318 (2305)
$1.3243 (1152)
$1.3191 (941)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.3090
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.3048 (1374)
$1.2977 (1552)
$1.2891 (1709)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 3 is 21283 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (2484);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 3 is 20288 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2600 (2560);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.95 versus 0.96 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 15
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
Pare | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
AUDUSD | 0.71687 | -0.02 |
EURJPY | 126.532 | -0 |
EURUSD | 1.13003 | 0.02 |
GBPJPY | 146.646 | 0.19 |
GBPUSD | 1.30963 | 0.21 |
NZDUSD | 0.67611 | 0.01 |
USDCAD | 1.33719 | 0.33 |
USDCHF | 1.00372 | 0.14 |
USDJPY | 111.965 | -0.02 |
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