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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 17-12-2012.
Today, the yen fell against the dollar to its lowest level since April 2011, as the election in Japan won Shinzo Abe, who is committed to the further expansion of monetary stimulus. At the same time, Abe called for the central bank to extend the threshold to 2% inflation and spend unlimited easing to revive economic growth. Note that the discussion of these issues will be held at a meeting of the Bank of Japan, which is scheduled for December 19-20. In addition, it is believed that during this session, the Bank of Japan may announce the expansion of the leniency program.
The dollar rose against most major currencies, as the negotiations on the U.S. budget remain. Note that if the politicians can not find a compromise before the end of this year, from January 1, you will automatically increase taxes and spending cuts to the tune of more than $ 600 billion, which is known as a "financial cliff." Also exerted pressure on the currency today presented data on the index of activity in the manufacturing sector of the New York Fed, which declined sharply, reaching the mark with -8.1, compared to -5.22 in November, while analysts expected that the value of this indicator will increase to -0.3. On the dynamics of trade also affected message that House Speaker John Boehner proposed to raise income tax rates of households whose income is more than $ 1 million a year in exchange for cost containment. Earlier, Boehner previously opposed the increase in the tax rates for all income levels. However, U.S. President Barack Obama, who is in favor of tax increases that started from the amount of income of $ 250,000, rejected the proposal.
Significant growth also revealed today the Canadian dollar, which has appreciated sharply after the publication of data for Canada, which showed that an investment of Canadians in foreign securities declined much less than expected. According to the report, investment fell to 13.26 billion, compared to 14.12 billion last month, and expectations at around 9.81 billion Canadian dollars.
There is a danger to fix their attention on specific target levels
I am glad, that may no longer tied to specific calendar dates
Struggling to provide stimulus without damaging price stability
Inflation is expected in 2013 will be at 1.8%
GDP growth in 2013 is projected to be up 2%
I think that it will take 3 years to reach the level of unemployment 6.5%
- Great balance makes the Fed more vulnerable to minor errors
There is a danger to fix their attention on specific target levels
I am glad, that may no longer tied to specific calendar dates
Struggling to provide stimulus without damaging price stability
Inflation is expected in 2013 will be at 1.8%
GDP growth in 2013 is projected to be up 2%
I think that it will take 3 years to reach the level of unemployment 6.5%
- Great balance makes the Fed more vulnerable to minor errors
M-T EMU outlook remains challenging, see very gradual recovery in H2 2013.
EMU inflation expected to decline further.
AFT sold E6.288bln vs target E5.1bln-E6.3bln
- E3.395bln 3-month BTF,avg yield -0.010% (-0.026%),cover 2.29 (2.03)
- E1.199bln 6-month BTF,avg yield 0% (-0.015%),cover 4.45 (4.33)
- E1.694bln 12-month BTF,avg yield 0.010% (-0.012%),cover 2.51 (3.96)
EUR/USD $1.3230, $1.3150, $1.3135, $1.3100, $1.3000
USD/JPY Y84.00, Y84.25, Y83.00
GBP/USD $1.6200
EUR/GBP stg0.8120, stg0.8130
EUR/CHF Chf1.2100
AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0550
00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) December -2.6% -3.3%
00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) December +2.0% +1.4%
10:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. October 11.0 10.8 7.9
The yen retreated from the 8.5-month low against the euro and a 20-month low against the dollar, which has been made in the Asian session after the Liberal Democratic Party, which advocated aggressive monetary easing, won the elections in Japan. However, the yen is still vulnerable on expectations that the Bank of Japan may announce the expansion of the program to mitigate this week.
The euro traded in a narrow range against the dollar, as data on the trade balance of the euro area and Italy had little influence on the dynamics of couples, as well as Greece's finance minister calls for the introduction of measures aimed at stimulating growth.
Seasonally-weighted data showed that the trade surplus narrowed from € 11 billion to € 7.9 billion, while excluding seasonal adjustment index increased more than expected, from € 9.5 billion to € 10.2 billion (versus expectations of € 15.5 billion ). Labor costs in the region increased by 1.9% (revised from 1.6%) to 2.0%.
Later today will be published data on the index of manufacturing activity in the U.S. Empire State, which, according to analysts, has strengthened in December from -5.22 to -0.50.
From America came the news that the Republicans can approve a tax increase for millionaires. Boehner spoke in favor of increasing taxes for people with incomes over $ 1 million from 35% to 39.6%, which will help to overcome the fiscal crisis in 2013, known as "the financial precipice."
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair is trading in the range of $ 1.3143 - $ 1.3171
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to a maximum of $ 1.6217
USD / JPY: during the European session the pair fell to Y83.60, then recovered slightly and is now trading at Y83.87
At 13:30 GMT, Canada will release the volume of transactions with foreign securities in October. In the U.S. at 13:30 GMT will Empire Manufacturing production index for December at 14:00 GMT - pure and total net purchases of long-term U.S. securities by foreign investors in October. At 18:00 GMT a speech FOMC member Jeffrey Lacker. At 23:00 GMT Australia is to publish an index of leading economic indicators from the Conference Board in October.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3300, $1.3280/85, $1.3240/50, $1.3200/30
Bids $1.3120, $1.3100, $1.3085/80, $1.3070/60, $1.3040
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6300/10, $1.6280/85, $1.6240/50, $1.6215/20
Bids $1.6150, $1.6135/30, $1.6110/00, $1.6085/80
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0600, $1.0550
Bids $1.0500, $1.0465/60, $1.0450, $1.0440
EUR/JPY
Offers Y111.30/35, Y110.95/00, Y110.78/80, Y110.45/50
Bids Y109.50, Y109.00, Y108.50
USD/JPY
Offers Y85.00, Y84.75/80, Y84.50, Y84.15/20
Bids Y83.50, Y83.20, Y83.00, Y82.85/80
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8280, stg0.8220 , stg0.8195/200
Bids stg0.8095/90, stg0.8080, stg0.8065/60, stg0.8045, stg0.8035/30
EUR/USD $1.3150, $1.3100, $1.3000
USD/JPY Y84.00, Y84.25
EUR/GBP stg0.8120, stg0.8130
AUD/USD $1.0500
The yen strengthened from an almost nine-month low against the dollar as technical indicators showed the decline was overdone before elections on Dec. 16 where Japan’s opposition leader Shinzo Abe is projected to win. The Japanese currency pared a weekly loss as Abe has called on the Bank of Japan to provide “unlimited easing” and set an inflation target of at least 2 percent.
The euro reached the highest in seven months versus the dollar as preset buy orders were triggered. The euro touched an eight-month high versus the yen after EU finance ministers meeting overnight in Brussels agreed to put the European Central Bank in charge of all euro-area lenders in a deal that paves the way for the currency bloc’s firewall fund to provide direct bailouts to banks.
The dollar weakened against major peers after consumer prices in the U.S. fell more than forecast last month, a sign the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program hasn’t caused inflation. The 0.3 percent decrease in the consumer-price index was the first drop since May and followed a 0.1 percent gain the prior month, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The median estimate of 80 economists called for a 0.2 percent drop. The core index, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, climbed less than projected.
The Canadian dollar was lower against the U.S. dollar after the bank downgrades by S&P and the weak data on shipments in the manufacturing sector in Canada. S&P has downgraded the ratings of several banks in Canada. The list of banks whose ratings have come under attack, included ScotiaBank, Banque National and several smaller institutions. In November, shipments in the manufacturing sector of Canada fell 1.4%
00:00 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks -
00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) December -2.6% -3.3%
00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) December +2.0% +1.4%
The yen fell to its weakest level since April 2011 versus the dollar after Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party swept to power in Japanese elections yesterday, giving him a mandate to act on pledges of expanded fiscal and monetary stimulus. The yen tumbled to an almost nine-month low against the euro after Abe’s LDP won 294 seats in the 480-member lower house of parliament, while Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s Democratic Party of Japan lost three-fourths of its lawmakers, according to public broadcaster NHK. Japan’s stocks rose and government bonds slid. Abe has called for a doubling of the Bank of Japan’s inflation goal to 2 percent and unlimited easing to revive growth. The central bank, which last month refrained from expanding its 66 trillion-yen ($786 billion) asset-purchase program, is scheduled to hold a policy meeting on Dec. 19-20. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa, criticized by politicians for his perceived failure to reverse more than a decade of deflation, ends his five-year term on April 8.
The dollar was supported as uncertainty over U.S. budget negotiations boosted demand for the relative safety of the world’s reserve currency. As part of a deal with President Barack Obama to cut the deficit, House Speaker John Boehner offered to raise income tax rates on households earning more than $1 million a year in exchange for containing federal entitlement programs, according to two people familiar with the talks.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $1.3190, but later declined.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded between $1.6155-00.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y84.35.
The global calendar slows down considerably this week, as markets gradually start the wind down into the festive season. However, there are still some data releases to clear away before the Christmas break. At 0800GMT, Spain' 3Q labour cost survey will be released, followed at 1000GMT with release of the EMU October trade balance and third quarter labour cost numbers. Later, ECB President Mario Draghi is set to appear before the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, in Brussels, at 1430GMT.
00:00 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks -
00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) December -2.6% -3.3%
00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) December +2.0% +1.4%
10:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. October 11.3 10.8
13:30 U.S. NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index December -5.22 -0.3
13:30 Canada Canadian Investment in Foreign Securities October 13.92 9.81
13:30 Canada Foreign investment in Canadian securities October 6.03
14:00 U.S. Net Long-term TIC Flows October 3.3 22.3
14:00 U.S. Total Net TIC Flows October 4.7
14:30 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks -
16:00 U.S. FOMC Member Jeremy Stein Speaks -
18:00 U.S. FOMC Member Laker Speaks -
23:00 Australia Conference Board Australia Leading Index October -0.3%
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