Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 18-01-2019.

• Now Is Time for Fed to Show 'Prudence, Patience and Good Judgment'

• If Economy Weakens 'I Will Adjust My Policy Views Accordingly'

• Fed Could Adjust Balance Sheet if Conditions Warranted It

• If Outlook Deteriorates, Fed Will Do Whatever It Can to Help Economy

• Economy Strong, Outlook Is 'Healthy'

• Remains Upbeat on Economy, but Acknowledges Market Anxiety

• Growth Likely to Moderate to Between 2% and 2.25% This Year

For the fourth quarter as a whole, total industrial production moved up at an annual rate of 3.8 percent. In December, manufacturing output increased 1.1 percent, its largest gain since February 2018. The output of mines rose 1.5 percent, but the index for utilities fell 6.3 percent, as warmer-than-usual temperatures lowered the demand for heating.

At 109.9 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 4.0 percent higher in December than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector rose 0.1 percentage point in December to 78.7 percent, a rate that is 1.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2017) average.

Meanwhile, Canadian investors reduced their holdings of foreign securities by $4.1 billion as they sold US shares. The divestment in foreign securities was the largest in a year and followed two strong months of acquisitions.

As a result, international transactions in securities generated a net inflow of funds of $13.5 billion in the Canadian economy in November, the largest inflow since November 2017.

Foreign acquisitions of Canadian debt securities increased to $7.4 billion in November. The bulk of the investment was in government debt securities, mainly federal government instruments.

Non-resident investors added $7.8 billion of Canadian bonds to their portfolio in November. Foreign investment in federal government bonds reached $3.0 billion. This was the second straight month of foreign investment in these instruments, following a general divestment trend totalling $35.1 billion from January to September.

The all-items excluding gasoline index rose 1.5% year over year in December, matching the increase in November.

Prices were up in seven of the eight major CPI components in the 12 months to December, with the transportation and shelter indexes contributing the most to the increase. The household operations, furnishings and equipment index declined 0.3% on a year-over-year basis.

Consumer prices for transportation rose 4.9% on a year-over-year basis in December, following a 5.9% increase in November. The movement in transportation prices was led by gasoline, which rose 12.2% year over year in December, after increasing 19.6% the previous month. The purchase of passenger vehicles index increased 3.7% in the 12-month period ending in December.

The shelter index grew 1.4% on a year-over-year basis in December, after increasing 1.2% in November. The natural gas index contributed to the gain in this major component, up 6.2% in December following a 3.1% increase in November.

• Saudi Arabian Crude Output Fell by 420,000 B/D in Dec.

• Russian Crude, Condensate Output Climbed by 80,000 B/D in Dec

• IEA Keeps Demand Growth Forecast for 2019 Unchanged, at 1.3 Million B/D

• Says OECD Commercial Oil Inventories Fell by 2.5 Million Barrels in Nov.

In the three months to December 2018, estimates in the quantity bought decreased by 0.2% with declines across all main sectors except fuel.

When compared with the previous month, the quantity bought in December 2018 decreased by 0.9%, as all sectors except food stores and fuel stores declined on the month.

Looking at annual growth rates, the whole of 2018 increased by 2.7% in the quantity bought; an annual slowdown in comparison with the peak of 4.7% experienced in 2016.

In December 2018, online retailing accounted for 20% of total retailing, with an overall growth of 13.9% when compared with the same month a year earlier.

The Producer and Import Price Index fell in December 2018 by 0.6% compared with the previous month, reaching 102.5 points (December 2015 = 100). Compared with December 2017, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 0.6%. The average annualised inflation rate in 2018 was 2.4%. These are some of the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Overall consumer prices in Japan were up 0.3 percent on year in December, according to rttnews.

That was in line with expectations and down from 0.8 percent in November.

Core consumer prices - which exclude volatiles prices of food - were up an annual 0.7 percent. That was shy of expectations for 0.8 percent and down from 0.9 percent in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, overall inflation was down 0.2 percent and core CPI eased 0.1 percent.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1521 (2198)

$1.1499 (478)

$1.1469 (547)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1392

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1346 (4011)

$1.1313 (5018)

$1.1276 (2614)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date February, 8 is 71430 contracts (according to data from January, 17) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1600 (5517);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3091 (1245)

$1.3069 (550)

$1.3043 (144)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2979

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2863 (554)

$1.2804 (378)

$1.2770 (434)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 8 is 23236 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (1972);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 8 is 25810 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2550 (1919);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.11 versus 1.12 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 17

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.