Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 18-05-2015.

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/JPY $1,1314 -1,20%

GBP/USD $1,5652 -0,48%

USD/CHF Chf0,926 +1,09%

USD/JPY Y119,98 +0,63%

EUR/JPY Y135,74 -0,55%

GBP/JPY Y187,78 +0,14%

AUD/USD $0,7990 -0,53%

NZD/USD $0,7396 -1,03%

USD/CAD C$1,2154 +1,17%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

00:00 Australia Conference Board Australia Leading Index March 0.5%

01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes

03:00 New Zealand Expected Annual Inflation 2y from now Quarter II 1.8%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) April 0.3% 0.8%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) April -13.0% -11.5%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) April 0.2% 0.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) April -1.7% -1.6%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m April 0.2% 0.4%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y April 0.9% 1.0%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m April 0.2% 0.4%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y April 0.0% 0.0%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y April 1.0%

09:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment May 64.8

09:00 Eurozone Trade balance unadjusted March 20.3 22.3

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI April 1.1%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Finally) April -0.1% 0.0%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y (Finally) April 0.6% 0.6%

09:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment May 53.3 49

12:30 U.S. Building Permits, mln April 1042 1060

12:30 U.S. Housing Starts, mln April 926 1020

15:45 Canada BOC Gov Stephen Poloz Speaks

16:00 Switzerland Gov Board Member Danthine Speaks

20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories May -2.0

23:15 Australia RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks

23:50 Japan GDP, y/y (Preliminary) Quarter I 1.5% 1.5%

23:50 Japan GDP, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter I 0.4% 0.4%

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Philip Lowe said in Melbourne on Monday that low interest rate in Australia to support spending and help a transition from mining investment.

He noted that borrowers should not take too much debt.

Lowe pointed out that further interest rate cut by the RBA is possible if needed. He added that lower Australian dollar will help the Australian economy.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released its housing market index for the U.S. on Monday. The NAHB housing market index declined to 54 in May from 56 in April.

Analysts had expected the index to rise to 57.

The decline was driven by lower sales and slower buyer traffic.

A level above 50.0 is considered positive, below indicates a negative outlook.

The NAHB Chairman Tom Woods said that the second quarter is expected to be solid.

"Consumers are exhibiting caution, and want to be on more stable financial footing before purchasing a home," the NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe noted.

He added that as the subindex measuring future sales expectations has been increased all year, mortgage rates remain low, and house prices are affordable, all these factors "should spur the release of pent-up demand moving forward".

The Bank of Japan's Chief Economist Eiji Maeda expects that Japan's economy "to move from recovery to an expansionary phase" this fiscal year due to improvements in domestic demand, exports and falling oil prices.

Maeda pointed out that the country is near full employment, which will put upward pressure on wages.

The Bank of Japan's chief economist noted that the central bank will adjust its monetary policy if needed. He added that there is no need adjustments as inflation expectations remain firm.

EUR/USD: $1.1300(E726mn), $1.1450(E629mn), $1.1500(E286mn)

USD/JPY: Y119.00/05($818mn), Y119.20($260mn), Y120.00($793mn), Y121.00($1.2bn)

AUD/USD: $0.8000(A$755mn)

NZD/USD: 0.7580/85(NZ$400mn)

European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said on Monday that Greece and its creditors has been made some progress.

"We have moved closer to common understanding on reforms to be adopted in a number of areas," he noted. He added that Greece agreed to engage "more constructively on the issue of privatizations" and that there are also some progress regarding the reform of the gas market.

Moscovici pointed out that talks are needed to speed up.

He noted that there are no talks about a third aid package for Greece.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said in Stockholm on Monday that the Fed should delay its interest rate hike until early 2016 as inflation in the U.S. is still low.

Evans noted that the Fed could raise its interest rate in every monetary policy meeting, depending on the incoming data. He added that he projects the U.S. economy need more time to recover from the first-quarter weakness.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president doesn't believe that inflation will increase to 2% target until 2018. He also said that the Fed should allow inflation to rise above its 2% target.

Evans is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year.

German Bundesbank released its monthly report. The central bank expects the German economy to expand in the coming months, driven by consumption.

German industry is expected to grow at a "sluggish" pace, according to the report.

Bundesbank also said that Greece could be bankrupt without changing its attitude in the negotiations with its creditors.

"The current Greek government is obliged to make appropriate proposals, to implement those agreements that have been reached and thereby do their part to avoid the insolvency of the state, with strong repercussions for Greece," Bundesbank noted.

The central bank added that financial help for Greece "should be linked to the relevant preconditions".

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) April 4.6% Revised From 4.4% 2.8%

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) April 0.5% -1.5%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally) March -2.0% -1.2% -1.7%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) March -3.1% -0.3% -0.8%

06:00 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks

07:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y March -3.1% Revised From -2.7% -2.8%

10:00 Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report

12:00 Canada Bank holiday

The U.S. dollar mixed to higher against the most major currencies ahead of the U.S. NAHB housing market index. The NAHB housing market index is expected to climb to 57 in May from 56 in April.

The euro traded lower against the U.S. dollar as the Greek debt crisis still weighs on the euro.

German Bundesbank released its monthly report. The central bank expects the German economy to expand in the coming months, driven by consumption. Bundesbank also said that Greece could be bankrupt without changing its attitude in the negotiations with its creditors.

The British pound traded lower against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from the U.K.

The Swiss franc traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the weaker-than-expected Swiss retail sales data. Retail sales in Switzerland dropped at an annual rate of 2.8% in March, after a 3.1% decline in February. February's figure was revised down from a 2.7% decrease.

Sales of food, beverages and tobacco plunged 2.6%, while non-food sales were down 2.3%.

EUR/USD: the currency pair fell to $1.1365

GBP/USD: the currency pair decreased to $1.5650

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

14:00 U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index May 56 57

EUR/USD

Offers 1.1425-30 1.1450 1.1470 1.1485 1.1500 1.1550

Bids 1.1375-80 1.1360 1.1340 1.1325 1.1300 1.1280 1.1250

GBP/USD

Offers 1.5700 1.5720 1.5740 1.5765 1.5780 1.5800 1.5830 1.5850 1.5870

Bids 1.5655-60 1.5630 1.5600 1.5585 1.5560 1.5525-30 1.5500

EUR/GBP

Offers 0.7285 0.7300 0.7325 0.7350

Bids 0.7250 0.7230 0.7200 0.7180-85 0.7150

EUR/JPY

Offers 136.50 136.80 137.00 137.50 137.80 138.00

Bids 136.00 135.80 135.50 135.25 135.00 134.60 134.40

USD/JPY

Offers 119.80 120.00 120.25-30 120.50 120.80 121.00

Bids 119.60 119.45 119.30 119.00 118.85 118.65 118.50

AUD/USD

Offers 0.8025 0.8040 0.8060 0.8080 0.8100 0.8125 0.8150

Bids 0.7985 0.7960 0.7930 0.7900-10 0.7885

Istat released its trade data for Italy on Monday. Italy's trade surplus declined to a seasonally adjusted €3.89 billion in March from €4.46 billion in February.

The decline was driven by higher imports. Imports climbed 4.0% in March, while exports rose 1.8%.

The trade surplus on EU trade was down to €686 million, while the surplus on non-EU trade fell to €3.2 billion.

The European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board Member Yves Mersch said on Monday that the central bank should continue its quantitative easing until inflation is on track to the central bank's 2% target.

"We need to maintain the pace and volume of our interventions, as we have communicated, so that inflation rises back towards 2% as quickly as possible and that monetary policy can begin once more to normalize," he said.

Mersch pointed out that unconventional monetary policy should be temporary.

EUR/USD: $1.1300(E726mn), $1.1450(E629mn), $1.1500(E286mn)

USD/JPY: Y119.00/05($818mn), Y119.20($260mn), Y120.00($793mn), Y121.00($1.2bn)

AUD/USD: $0.8000(A$755mn)

NZD/USD: 0.7580/85(NZ$400mn)

The Federal Statistical Office released its retail sales data for Switzerland on Monday. Retail sales in Switzerland dropped at an annual rate of 2.8% in March, after a 3.1% decline in February.

February's figure was revised down from a 2.7% decrease.

Retail sales excluding petrol prices fell 2.3%.

Sales of food, beverages and tobacco plunged 2.6%, while non-food sales were down 2.3%.

According to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's quarterly survey, the U.S. economy is expected to expand at an annual rate of 2.5% in the second quarter, down from its February forecast of 3.0%.

Economists expect the economy to grow 3.1% in the third quarter of 2015, up from the previous estimate of 2.8%.

For 2015 as whole, the economic growth is expected to be 2.4%, down from 3.2% in February.

The Conference Board released its leading economic index for the U.K. The leading economic index increased 0.2% in March, after a 0.6% rise in February. It was the consecutive increase.

The coincident index was up 0.2% in March, after a 0.2% in February.

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) April 4.4% 2.8%

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) April 0.5% -1.5%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally) March -2.0% -1.2% -1.7%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) March -3.1% -0.3% -0.8%

The dollar was moderately higher against the yen in Asia trade Monday, helped by a bout of buying early in the session that ultimately failed to gather wider momentum. The currency market is now awaiting indicators such as U.S. residential construction data Tuesday and the release of Federal Open Market Committee minutes Wednesday.

The New Zealand dollar was weaker late Monday as market participants bet on further rate cuts after the New Zealand government announced a new tax on property investors. Prime Minister John Key said Sunday that the government would force residential-property investors to pay tax when they profit from the sale of a property they have owned for less than two years. Markets interpreted the move as giving New Zealand's central bank further flexibility to cut rates. Economists remain split on whether the central bank will lower rates this year as it tries to balance a rising property market with soft inflation.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $1.1420

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $1.5705

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose to Y119.75

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1567 (3530)

$1.1532 (4467)

$1.1508 (4193)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1433

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1395 (918)

$1.1355 (1653)

$1.1302 (2307)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 5 is 103313 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (6133);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 5 is 128504 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0800 (8202);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.24 versus 1.20 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 15

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.6004 (1249)

$1.5906 (1186)

$1.5810 (1224)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.5726

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.5690 (595)

$1.5594 (792)

$1.5496 (1903)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 5 is 34680 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5600 (2466);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 5 is 49381 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5000 (3294);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.42 versus 1.39 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 15

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.