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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 18-09-2012.
The euro continues to decline in the dollar and yen, despite the figures exceeded expectations of confidence of investors and analysts to the German economy and the euro zone.
Index of investor and analyst expectations for the economy in Germany for the next six months (confidence index) calculated by research institute ZEW, rose in September for the first time in 5 months - to minus 18.2 points from minus 25.5 points in August. However, the value of the indicator remains negative, which is not inspired investors. Index of investors and analysts to the current situation in the German economy in September, down from 18.2 points to the lowest since June 2010, 12.6 points. Analysts on average forecast a rise of the first indicator to minus 20 points and the second reduction to 18 points. Overall, for the euro area index was -3.8 -16.3 points at the forecast.
Also today it was announced that Spanish borrowing costs fell at today's auction, the first once since the European Central Bank on September 6, announced plans to buy government debt in the region to contain borrowing costs.
The demand for the yen is still limited due to the forecasts, the Bank of Japan will take an intervention after a meeting on September 17-18. More active than an intervention, investors expect the Bank of Japan's new measures to support the economy after the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
The Bank of Japan increased the size of the fund to buy assets such as government debt by 5 trillion yen to 45 trillion yen in July, and continued to hold the interest rate at around 0.1%, which was established in October 2010.
EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3100, $1.3100, $1.3130-35, $1.3150, $1.3230
USD/JPY Y78.75, Y78.50, Y78.30, Y78.00, Y77.50, Y77.20
GBP/USD $1.6200, $1.6000
EUR/GBP stg0.8075
AUD/USD $1.0450, $1.0500, $1.0600
Data
01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes -
02:30 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks -
05:45 Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts IV quarter
08:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m August +0.1% +0.5% +0.5%
08:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y August +2.6% +2.5% +2.5%
08:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y August +2.3% +2.2% +2.1%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m August +0.1% +0.5% +0.4%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y August +3.2% +3.0% +2.9%
08:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y August +3.2% +3.0% +2.9%
09:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment September -25.5 -19.4 -18.2
09:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment September -21.2 -16.3 -3.8%
09:30 United Kingdom BOE Inflation Letter September
The euro continued its decline from the four-month high against the dollar and the yen after a survey showed that German investor sentiment remained negative this month amid fading optimism in resolving the debt crisis.
The single currency weakened against all but two of its 16 major counterparts as European stocks fell on fears that there may be a delay in the provision of financial resources to Spain that it needs to solve its financial problems.
The Australian dollar continued its decline yesterday after the policy stated that the strong currency has the expense of economic growth. Also, there are rumors that soon the bank may seek to lower the interest rate.
Also today it was announced that Spanish borrowing costs fell at today's auction, the first once since the European Central Bank on September 6, announced plans to buy government debt in the region to contain borrowing costs.
The yen rose against all but one of the 16 major currencies, as the central bank of Japan began its two-day meeting. Some economists predict that the Bank will announce the introduction of further measures to mitigate the monetary policy.
The Bank of Japan increased the size of the fund to buy assets such as government debt by 5 trillion yen to 45 trillion yen in July, and continued to hold the interest rate at around 0.1%, which was established in October 2010.
The Swiss franc has appreciated even after the government's expert group has cut its growth forecast for this year and next year on the background of the fact that the debt crisis in the eurozone affects the slowdown in exports.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair has fallen by more than half the figure, and is now trading at $ 1.3055
GBP / USD: the pair is trading in a narrow range at maximum
USD / JPY: the pair is trading without a trend and is now at Y78.63
At 12:30 GMT the United States will report on the balance of the current account balance of payments for the 2nd quarter. At 13:00 GMT, the U.S. announced on net purchases of long-term U.S. securities by foreign investors and the total net purchases of U.S. securities by foreign investors in July. At 20:30 GMT the U.S. become aware of changes in the volume of crude oil, according to the API for September. At 22:45 GMT New Zealand, there are data on the balance of the current account balance of payments against the current account deficit to GDP and Gross Domestic Product for the second quarter.
Germany's export sector is expected to suffer from the decline in external demand
The deterioration of the economic situation will be rather moderate
Experts predict that the German economy will lose momentum in the next 6 months
The decision of the Constitutional Court of Germany did not affect the ZEW index
The debt crisis remains a risk to economic activity
The debt crisis is not resolved
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3170/75, $1.3130-35
Bids $1.3020/00, $1.2980, $1.2950, $1.2935/30, $1.2900, $1.2855/50
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0670, $1.0585/90, $1.0540/50
Bids $1.0405/00, $1.0350/40
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6330/35, $1.6300, $1.6280, $1.6273
Bids $1.6220-00, $1.6180/70, $1.6150/40, $1.6120, $1.6085/80
EUR/JPY
Offers Y103.80/4.00, Y103.40/60
Bids Y102.50/40, Y100.80/60, Y100.50
USD/JPY
Offers Y79.50, Y78.80-9.00
Bids Y78.48, Y78.00/7.90
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8200, stg0.8180, stg0.8150
Bids stg0.8020/00, stg0.7970, stg0.7945/40
EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3100, $1.3100, $1.3130-35, $1.3150, $1.3230
USD/JPY Y78.75, Y78.50, Y78.30, Y78.00, Y77.50, Y77.20
GBP/USD $1.6200, $1.6000
EUR/GBP stg0.8075
AUD/USD $1.0450, $1.0500, $1.0600
Sold E4.576bln vs target E3.5-E4.5bln
E3.557bln 12-month Letra; bid-to-cover 2.03 (1.91)
E1.019ln 18-month Letra; bid-to-cover 3.56 (3.98)
Sold 12-month Letra at avg yield 2.835% vs 3.07% prev
Sold 18-month Letra at avg yield 3.072% vs 3.335% prev
01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes -
02:30 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
The euro weakened versus most of its major peers before a German report forecast to show investor confidence hovered near the lowest level this year. Germany’s ZEW Center for European Economic Research is forecast to say its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance, was at minus 20 in September, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The gauge slid to minus 25.5 last month, the lowest this year.
The euro’s 14-day relative strength index versus the dollar and the yen remained above 70 today, a level that some traders see as a sign that an asset price may be about to reverse course.
The yen was close to a one-week low against the dollar amid speculation the Bank of Japan will expand monetary stimulus to rein in currency strength that hurts exporters. In Japan, the central bank is set to begin a two-day policy meeting today. Five of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict policy makers will announce further easing tomorrow, with sixteen expecting a move by October.
The Australian dollar held onto a decline from yesterday after minutes of the Reserve Bank’s meeting this month showed officials saw the currency’s strength as a risk to the economy, signaling scope to cut interest rates.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.3085-15.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.6230-60.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of Y78.45-75.
At 0900GMT, Germany's Sep ZEW survey is released. At 0830GMT, UK Aug Consumer Prices numbers are released. Energy prices look likely to drive inflation higher in the near term than the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee had forecast in its August Inflation Report.
Yesterday the euro rose against the dollar to a maximum of the beginning of May, after the September manufacturing activity in the area of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York dropped more than expected by a decline in orders. General economic index of the New York Fed declined to -10.41 versus -5.85 in August, reaching the lowest level since April 2009 values. Economists had expected a drop to -2. Factories slow conveyors weakened exports, limited business investment and lower household spending. Unemployment rate is more than 8% over three years, and the weakening of the economy this year to explain what the Fed policymakers who decided to additional stimulus during a recent meeting.
Earlier, the euro weakened against the yen and the U.S. dollar for the first time in five days amid unrest in Spain, and after the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said that Spain may need financial assistance. As market participants expect the meeting, the Prime Minister of Spain with the Prime Minister of Italy, Mario Monti, to be held in Rome on 21 September. The next day, German Chancellor Angela Merkel will hold talks with French President François Hollande. The single currency fell against most of its 16 major counterparts after European leaders last week in Cyprus to discuss the terms of salvation and the role of the European Central Bank. Euro also declined following the demonstrations in Madrid, which took place two days and were directed against the additional austerity measures.
The dollar rose against the yen on expectations of intervention by the Japanese authorities.
British pound updated four month high against the dollar on optimism about the third round of quantitative easing from the Fed.
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3113 -0,12%
GBP/USD $1,6247 +0,19%
USD/CHF Chf0,9274 +0,08%
USD/JPY Y78,72 +0,43%
EUR/JPY Y103,23 +0,30%
GBP/JPY Y127,88 +0,63%
AUD/USD $1,0470 -0,74%
NZD/USD $0,8264 -0,28%
USD/CAD C$0,9746 +0,30%
01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes -
02:30 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks -
05:45 Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts IV quarter
08:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m August +0.1% +0.5%
08:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y August +2.6% +2.5%
08:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y August +2.3% +2.2%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m August +0.1% +0.5%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y August +3.2% +3.0%
08:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y August +3.2% +3.0%
09:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment September -25.5 -19.4
09:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment September -21.2 -16.3
09:30 United Kingdom BOE Inflation Letter September
12:30 U.S. Current cccount, bln Quarter II -137 -126
13:00 U.S. Net Long-term TIC Flows July 9.3 45.3
13:00 U.S. Total Net TIC Flows July 16.7
14:00 U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index September 37 38
22:45 New Zealand Current Account Quarter II -1.31 -1.63
23:45 U.S. FOMC Member Laker Speaks -
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