Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 18-12-2018.

Lower sales at wood product and primary metal industries were largely offset by higher sales at food and machinery industries.

Overall, sales were down in 7 of 21 industries, representing 40.5% of the manufacturing sector. Sales of durable goods decreased 0.9% to $30.0 billion, while sales of non-durable goods rose 0.7% to $28.3 billion.

Constant dollar sales increased 0.2%, indicating a higher volume of goods sold

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,328,000.  This is 5.0 percent above the revised October rate of 1,265,000 and is 0.4 percent above the November 2017 rate of 1,323,000. Single‐family authorizations in November were at a rate of 848,000; this is 0.1 percent above the revised October figure of 847,000.  Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 441,000 in November.

Privately‐owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,256,000.  This is 3.2 percent above the revised October estimate of 1,217,000, but is 3.6 percent below the November 2017 rate of 1,303,000.  Single‐family housing starts in November were at a rate of 824,000; this is 4.6 percent below the revised October figure of 864,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 417,000.  

I hope the people over at the Fed will read today’s Wall Street Journal Editorial before they make yet another mistake. Also, don’t let the market become any more illiquid than it already is. Stop with the 50 B’s. Feel the market, don’t just go by meaningless numbers. Good luck!

Carrefour is the French retailer the most affected by the yellow-vest protests in France, with estimated losses of up to EUR150 million, Bryan Garnier says. The bill should be significant for retailers, the brokerage says, but not as alarming as estimates provided by other organizations. Retailers Casino, Maisons du Monde and Fnac Darty should suffer fewer losses than Carrefour. However, the movement could have an even greater impact on the businesses' EBIT with possible losses at this level for Carrefour, BG forecasts. Carrefour shares are down 0.58% at EUR14.53. - via WSJ

The ifo Business Climate Index fell to 101.0 points in December from 102.0 points in November. Companies were less satisfied with their current business situation. Their business expectations also continued to deteriorate. The German economy faces a lean festive season.

In manufacturing the business climate index fell markedly. This was primarily due to manufacturers’ business expectations, which turned negative for the first time since May 2016. In line with these developments, manufacturers scaled back their production plans. Their assessments of the current business situation also deteriorated slightly, but nevertheless remain at a high level.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1487 (927)

$1.1471 (209)

$1.1448 (138)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1351

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1321 (6772)

$1.1282 (5041)

$1.1240 (2977)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date January, 7 is 69566 contracts (according to data from December, 17) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (7122);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2839 (684)

$1.2779 (502)

$1.2723 (188)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2650

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2584 (1495)

$1.2552 (1556)

$1.2516 (1289)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 7 is 33121 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3400 (3835);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 7 is 30344 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2450 (2891);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.92 versus 0.92 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 17

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Board agreed next move in rates more likely to be up than down

• saw no strong case for a near-term change in policy

• steady policy allowed RBA to be a source of stability and confidence

• sluggish household incomes, high debt and falling home prices "posed downside risks"

• had expected Q3 GDP growth to be above 3 pct for the year (vs actual 2.8 pct)

• Expected GDP growth to run above potential this year and next

• Leading indicators pointed to above average jobs growth for next couple of quarters

• Further fall in the unemployment rate likely

Business confidence rose 13 points in December. Firms’ views of their own activity lifted 6 points.  

Expected profitability and employment, investment and export intentions rose, and perceived availability of credit jumped sharply. Marring the picture a little, most indicators for the agriculture sector deteriorated.

In the December ANZ Business Outlook Survey headline business confidence lifted meaningfully. That said, it remains in the red, with a net 24% of respondents reporting they expect general business conditions to deteriorate in the year ahead. More importantly, firms’ perceptions of their own activity rose 6 points to a net 14% expecting a lift. The construction sector continued to be the most optimistic at +22%. The retail sector remains the least positive (1.9%).

"It is incredible that with a very strong dollar and virtually no inflation, the outside world blowing up around us, Paris is burning and China way down, the Fed is even considering yet another interest rate hike," Mr. Trump tweeted. "Take the Victory!"

This is mainly due to weak domestic demand, which is likely to pick up again only in 2020. GDP is set to grow by 1.5% in 2019 and by 1.7% in 2020.

After five quarters of strong growth, the Swiss economy slowed abruptly in the 3rd quarter and economic output contracted by 0.2%. In the wake of the decline in international growth, Swiss foreign trade decreased. The appreciation of the Swiss franc in the meantime additionally slowed exports, while domestic demand also failed to stimulate growth.

The Expert Group forecasts that both the export and domestic economies will return to moderate growth after the weak 3rd quarter. However, the strong GDP growth rates of the first half of 2018 will no longer be achieved. Leading indicators at home and abroad also point in this direction. Nevertheless, due to the strong first half of the year, GDP growth for 2018 overall is likely to come in well above average at 2.6% (September forecast: 2.9%).

Today I am making good on my promise to defend our Farmers & Ranchers from unjustified trade retaliation by foreign nations. I have authorized Secretary Perdue to implement the 2nd round of Market Facilitation Payments. Our economy is stronger than ever–we stand with our Farmers!