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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 19-03-2012.
The Dollar Index fell to a one-week low as traders sold the U.S. currency in favor of the Swiss franc, triggering automatic sell orders for the pair that further weighed on the greenback.
The 17-nation euro also rose against the dollar as it broke through its 100-day moving average, a technical level that once breached, may spur further appreciation. The shared currency earlier fell against most of its major counterparts before a report forecast to show a contraction in industrial output. The euro weakened earlier after International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde urged policy makers to be vigilant about global economic stability. Lagarde, speaking in Beijing yesterday, said oil prices, debt levels, and the risk of slowing growth in emerging markets threaten global economic stability.
The U.S. currency pared losses against the yen today. The dollar’s 14-day relative strength index against the Japanese currency was at 71.8, more than the 70 level some traders see as a sign an asset may reverse direction.
PSI to bring debt down to 117% of GDP in 2020
- debt to remain in downward trend after 2020
- fiscal targets achievable if program strictly implemented
- GDP to contract by 4.5% on average in 2012
- unemployment to exceed 19% in 2012
EUR/USD $1.3150, $1.3200
USD/JPY Y83.00, Y83.20, Y84.00
GBP/USD $1.5805, $1.5670, $1.5650
USD/CHF Chf0.9250
EUR/CHF Chf1.2100
AUD/USD $1.0600
Data:
09:00 Eurozone Current account, adjusted, bln January 2.0 4.3 4.5
The euro weakened against the yen before a report economists say will show a contraction in industrial output, stoking concern the region’s growth is stalling.
The common currency dropped after International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde urged policy makers to be vigilant over global economic stability.
Lagarde, speaking in Beijing yesterday, said oil prices, debt levels, and the risk of slowing growth in emerging markets threaten global economic stability.
“Optimism should not give us a sense of comfort or lull us into a false sense of security,” she said. “We cannot go back to business as usual.”
Data later this week is forecast to show euro-area services and manufacturing output shrank for a second month in March.
EUR/USD: during european session the pair consolidated in $1,3140-$ 1,3180 area.
GBP/USD: the most part of european session the pair was limited $1,5820-$ 1,5860. Later the rate grown in $1.5880 area.
USD/JPY: the pair decreased. In the last some hours the pair was consolidated in Y83.00-Y83.20 area.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3290/300, $1.3250, $1.3220/25, $1.3190/200
Bids $1.3135/20, $1.3100, $1.3080
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5930/35, $1.5895/900, $1.5880/85
Bids $1.5820, $1.5800, $1.5735/25
EUR/JPY
Offers Y110.50, Y109.95/00, Y109.65/70
Bids Y109.05/00, Y108.85/80, Y108.60/55, Y108.40/35, Y108.00/90
USD/JPY
Offers Y84.50, Y84.25, Y83.90/95, Y83.80/85
Bids Y83.00, Y82.85/80, Y82.55/50, Y82.15/10
Resistance 1: Y84.20 (area of Mar 15 high)
Resistance 2: Y83.60 (session high)
Resistance 1: Y83.20 (area of Mar 15-16 lows)
Current price: Y83.12
Support 1: Y83.00 (session low)
Support 2: Y82.70 (intraday low on Mar 13, Mar 9 high)
Support 3: Y81.90 (Mar 13 low, Mar 5 high)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9255 (Mar 16 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9200 (Mar 15 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.918 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.9160
Support 1: Chf0.9150/40 (Mar 16 low, session low, Mar 13 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9070 (Mar 8 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9045 (Mar 2 low)
Resistance 3 : $1.5970 (Mar 2 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.5880 (Mar 8 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.5860 (Mar 16 high, session high)
Current price: $1.5859
Support 1 : $1.5820 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5750 (area of Mar 13-15 high)
Support 3 : $1.5690 (Mar 15 low)
Resistance 3 : $1.3360 (Mar 1 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.3290 (Mar 8 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.3190 (Mar 13 and 16 highs)
Current price: $1.3163
Support 1 : $1.3140/20 (session low, Mar 15 high)
Support 2 : $1.3040 (Mar 16 low)
Support 3 : $1.3000 (Mar 15 low)
EUR/USD $1.3150, $1.3200
USD/JPY Y83.00, Y83.20, Y84.00
GBP/USD $1.5805, $1.5670, $1.5650
USD/CHF Chf0.9250
EUR/CHF Chf1.2100
AUD/USD $1.0600
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index heading for its fifth day of advance, before the release of U.S. data this week that’s expected to show further signs of stabilization in the housing market.
Nikkei 225 10,141.99 +12.16 +0.12%
Hang Seng 21,115.29 -202.56 -0.95%
S&P/ASX 200 4,290.8 +14.64 +0.34%
Shanghai Composite 2,410.18 +5.45 +0.23%
Samsung Electronics Co., Asia’s No. 1 consumer-electronics maker, climbed 1.8 percent in Seoul.
Cnooc Ltd., China’s biggest offshore oil producer, gained 2.2 percent in Hong Kong as crude traded near a one-week high.
Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., the country’s largest producer of the metal, sank 3.7 percent after saying it may be unprofitable in the first quarter after posting a wider-than-expected loss in the second half of 2011.
00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) March +4.1% +1.6%
00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) March +1.4% +2.2%
01:00 Australia RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech 0
The euro touched a 4 1/2-month high against the yen as German Chancellor Angela Merkel said European officials have discussed combining euro-area bailout funds to reinforce the region’s financial firewall. European finance ministers have discussed “combination possibilities” for the permanent and the temporary rescue funds ahead of a March 30 meeting in Copenhagen, Merkel said March 16. Ministers may decide to increase the region’s crisis fund to a total capacity of 692 billion euros ($911 billion) when they meet, a euro-area official said separately. Demand for the 17-nation euro was also supported before Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti holds talks with unions and employers to revise labor laws this week.
The yen traded near an 11-month low versus the dollar as Asian stocks extended a four- day rally from last week, damping demand for haven assets. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley speaks today at Melville, New York.
Demand for the dollar was limited after inflation data last week rekindled expectation of additional monetary stimulus after the Fed bought $2.3 trillion of Treasuries and mortgage-backed bonds in two rounds of purchases known as quantitative easing from December 2008 to June 2010. The U.S. consumer-price index excluding food and energy costs climbed 0.1 percent in February, the Labor Department reported on March 16 in Washington, half the pace projected by economists in a Bloomberg News survey.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in a range $1.3160-$1.3180.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in a range $1.5825-$1.5850.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell.
Monday is devoid of significant macroeconomic data releases from Europe, with just EMU construction output at 1000GMT, while it is also a quiet start in the US. US data sees the 1400GMT by the Housing Market Index from the NAHB and then the 1430GMT release of the weekly Retail Trade Index. US speakesrs start at 1230GMT, when Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks to the Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation in London.
On Monday the dollar gained against most of its major counterparts as stronger U.S. economic data reduced bets the Federal Reserve would add to monetary stimulus, bolstering demand for the currency. The 17-nation euro pared losses against the yen before European finance ministers meet in Brussels to review a second aid package for Greece.
On Tuesday the dollar gained against the euro and the yen as the Federal Reserve policy makers raised their assessment of the economy as the labor market gathers strength and refrained from more actions to lower borrowing costs. The Federal Open Market Committee, which met in Washington, kept the central bank’s benchmark interest rate target unchanged at zero to 0.25 percent, where it’s been since December 2008. The yen dropped earlier to the weakest level against the dollar in almost 11 months as the Bank of Japan plans to keep using monetary policy as a tool to tackle deflation.
On Wednesday the dollar strengthened to an 11- month high against the yen after the Federal Reserve raised its outlook for U.S. growth, reducing expectations the central bank will begin a third round of bond purchases. The yen fell for a second day versus the dollar as the extra yield received for holding Treasury two-year notes compared with Japanese debt increased to the most since July. The extra yield investors receive from holding two-year Treasuries instead of Japanese debt widened to 24 basis points, the most since July 28, increasing the attractiveness of dollar assets.
On Thursday the yen climbed from an 11-month low against the dollar as investors wagered that its largest four-day decline since November may have happened too quickly. The pound weakened for the first time in three days against the euro after Fitch Ratings said the U.K. risks losing its top investment grade. The U.K. currency fell against 11 of its 16 major counterparts after Fitch changed its rating outlook yesterday on Britain to negative, citing a weak recovery and high debt levels. The Swiss franc climbed from a seven-week low against the dollar as the Swiss National Bank predicted the economy will expand 1 percent this year, twice as much as its previous estimate.
On Friday the dollar weakened against most of its major peers after U.S. inflation data fueled speculation Federal Reserve policy makers will maintain economic stimulus. The U.S. currency fell against the 17-nation euro as a gauge of consumer prices excluding food and energy rose less than forecast.
Resistance 3 : $1.5975/90 (high of Feb and Mar)
Resistance 2 : $1.5900 (Feb 27-28 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.5860 (Mar 16 high)
The current price: $1.5838
Support 1 : $1.5815 (low of the American session on Mar 16)
Support 2 : $1.5750 (Mar 15 high)
Support 3 : $1.5700 (psychological level)
Resistance 3 : $1.3290 (Mar 8 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.3230 (high of the American session on Mar 9)
Resistance 1 : $1.3190 (Mar 13 high, session high)
The current price: $1.3167
Support 1 : $1.3160 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.3120 (Mar 15 high)
Support 3 : $1.3045 (Mar 16 low)
00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) March +4.1%
00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) March +1.4%
01:00 Australia RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech 0
09:00 Eurozone Current account, adjusted, bln January 2.0 4.3
12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m January +0.9% +0.5%
12:35 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak 0
14:00 U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index March 29 30
17:40 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak 0
23:00 Australia Conference Board Australia Leading Index January +0.2%
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