Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 19-09-2016.

01:30 Australia House Price Index (QoQ) Quarter II -0.2% 2.5%

01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes

05:45 Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

06:00 Switzerland Trade Balance August 2.93

12:30 U.S. Housing Starts August 1211 1191

12:30 U.S. Building Permits August 1144 1170

16:50 Canada BOC Gov Stephen Poloz Speaks

22:45 New Zealand Visitor Arrivals August 14.4%

23:50 Japan Trade Balance Total, bln August 513.5 202.3

"The value of trade between the US and China overtook that between the US and Canada as the world's largest last year. And when it comes to goods exports to the US, Canada appears to be falling further down the list. Low oil prices have uncovered a weaker underlying trade performance, seeing Canada's share of US imports fall. At the same time, Mexico has continued to pick up share. And a weaker loonie hasn't made competing against a low cost country such as Mexico any easier. Recent softness in the peso means that the Mexican currency has actually now fallen further against the US$ than the loonie has.

A continued uninspiring trade performance will weigh on the C$ against it American counterpart, seeing USDCAD rise to 1.37 by end-2017".

Copyright © 2016 CIBC, eFXnews™

The report said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index surged up to 65 in September from a downwardly revised 59 in August.

Economists had expected the index to come in unchanged compared to the 60 originally reported for the previous month.

With the substantial increase, the housing market index reached its highest level since hitting a matching reading in October of 2015.

"With the inventory of new and existing homes remaining tight, builders are confident that if they can build more homes they can sell them," said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.

He added, "Though solid job creation and low interest rates are also fueling demand, builders continue to be hampered by supply-side constraints that include shortages of labor and lots."

EURUSD: 1.1000 (EUR 819m) 1.1170 (285m) 1.1200 (300m) 1.1265 (395m) 1.1300 (511m) 1.1310 (432m)

USDJPY: 102.10 (600m) 103.00 (306m) 103.50 (391m)

AUDUSD: 0.7400(AUD 345m) 0.7500 (834m) 0.7600 (400m)

USDCAD: 1.3200 (200m)

EURGBP 0.8500 (EUR 455m)

The following data was published:

(Time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

8:00 Eurozone balance of payments, without taking into account seasonal adjustments, in July 39.1 31.5 bn

10:00 Germany's Bundesbank Monthly Report

The yen strengthened against the US dollar, updating the Friday's high. Experts point out that the US currency remained under pressure in the run-up to the Fed meeting. Few people believe that the Fed will raise rates this week, but recent data reinforce the view that the policy tightening could occur before the end of the year, probably in December. In addition, market participants adjust their positions ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting. On Wednesday, the Bank of Japan completes the two-day meeting and will publish a report on the measures taken to combat deflation. Markets will focus on whether the Bank of Japan will lower its key interest rate or otherwise change policies.

The euro traded in a range against the US dollar, near Friday's low. Little influenced by the data for Germany and the euro zone. Statistical Office Destatis reported that the number of permits issued for housing construction in Germany, grew strongly in the first seven months, registering the largest increase in six years. According to the report, during the period from January to July, the number of permits issued for housing construction jumped by 26.1 percent year on year to 213.600 units. The last time such a large number of permits (for 7-month period) was in 2000 - when 216,000 permits were approved, the agency said. Of the total number of permits issued in January-July 179,600 were for new homes, which is 23.2 percent more compared to last year. Part of the last change was due to increase in the number of permits for the construction of shelters for refugees.

With regard to the data for the euro area, the ECB announced that the seasonally adjusted and corrected for the number of working days, the balance of payments surplus in July fell to 21.0 bln euro, compared to EUR 29.5 billion. In June. Analysts predicted that the surplus will decrease to 27.2 billion. Euro. The total current account in the last 12 months (to July) showed a surplus of 343.2 billion euros, equivalent to 3.0% of eurozone's GDP.

In addition, investors are preparing for the Fed meeting. It is unlikely that the Fed will raise rates, but investors will assess the tone of the official statement of the central bank, hoping to get hints. According to the futures market, the likelihood of tighter monetary policy is 12% in September and 55.0% in December.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair was trading in the $ 1.1150- $ 1.1173 range

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3073

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell Y101.69

EUR/USD

Offers 1.1180 1.1200 1.1220-25 1.1250-55 1.1270 1.1285 1.1300

Bids 1.1145-50 1.1125 1.1100 1.1085 1.1050 1.1020 1.1000

GBP/USD

Offers 1.3080-85 1.3100 1.3125-30 1.3150 1.3185 1.3200 1.3220 1.3235 1.3250

Bids 1.3030 1.3000 1.2980 1.2940-50 1.2900 1.2880 1.2850

EUR/GBP

Offers 0.8560-65 0.8580 0.8600 0.8625-30 0.8650 0.8700

Bids 0.8525-30 0.8500 0.8480-85 0.8450 0.8420 0.8400

EUR/JPY

Offers 114.30 114.50 114.85 115.00 115.20-25 115.50 115.80 116.00

Bids 113.80-85 113.50 113.20 113.00 112.80 112.50 112.35 112.00

USD/JPY

Offers 102.20-25 102.50-55 102.75-80 103.00 103.35 103.50

Bids 102.00 101.75-80 101.60 101.50 101.20 101.00 100.80 100.50

AUD/USD

Offers 0.7550-55 0.7565 0.7580 0.7600 0.7630 0.7655-60

Bids 0.7500 0.7485 0.7465 0.7445-50 0.7420-25 0.7400

"Excessive credit growth in China signals the growing threat of a banking crisis in the next three years", - reported in the statement of the Bank for International Settlements.

In its review of the international banking and financial markets, BIS said that the probability of a financial "heat" in China in rising - the gap between the increase in lending and GDP reached 30.1 in the first quarter. "The value above 10 signals that the crisis may cover the country in the next three years as China's LED is much higher than the second highest rate (12.1 for Canada) and is the highest of the countries evaluated.", - noted BIS experts.

Debt plays a key role in slowing China's economic growth after the global financial crisis. Debt reached 255 percent of GDP in 2015, which was largely due to a sharp increase in corporate borrowing. Recall two years ago, outstanding debt was 220 percent. Meanwhile, China's bank lending rose in August more than double compared to July, with most of the increase related to the high demand for mortgage loans.

The BIS also said that the debt service ratio - which measures the interest in relation to income - was 5.4, which is a "potential problem". This underlines the risk of default, as many borrowers are unable to repay the loans. Some analysts argue that the weakening of the capital strength of banks increases the likelihood that the government may have to "upload" more than $ 100 billion.

This morning New York WTI crude oil futures rose 1.4% to $ 44.23 and Brent crude oil futures rose 1.22% to $ 46.33 per barrel. Thus, the black gold is trading higher, after Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said yesterday that OPEC countries and other manufacturers are close to the conclusion of production level stabilization. In addition, the clashes in Libya have raised concern about the possible failure to restore the export of black gold out of the country. The clashes in the country prevented the shipment of the first batch of oil from the port of Ras Lanuf in nearly two years, as well as intensified fears of a new conflict over the oil resources of the country.

"The GBP has been broadly range-bound of late, mainly on the back of stabilising central bank monetary policy expectations. Although the BoE left all options regarding lower rates as soon as this year open, improving data as for instance reflected in better than expected retail sales suggests that the central bank is in a position to wait and see for longer. This makes sense considering that conditions may turn more unstable as soon as Brexit negotiations actually start next year.

The GBP should remain broadly stable next week, especially as no top tier data is scheduled to be released.

When it comes to positioning it remains less elevated and close to levels of when the EU referendum was held. Nevertheless,should GBP lose further downside momentum it cannot be excluded that long-term shorts will be taken off.

Hence, scope of cannot be excluded".

Copyright © 2016 Credit Agricole CIB, eFXnews™

EUR/USD: 1.1000 (EUR 819m) 1.1170 (285m) 1.1200 (300m) 1.1265 (395m) 1.1300 (511m) 1.1310 (432m)

USD/JPY: 102.10 (600m) 103.00 (306m) 103.50 (391m)

AUD/USD: 0.7400(AUD 345m) 0.7500 (834m) 0.7600 (400m)

USD/CAD: 1.3200 (200m)

EUR/GBP 0.8500 (EUR 455m)

In July 2016 the current account of the euro area recorded a surplus of €21.0 billion.

In the financial account, combined direct and portfolio investment recorded net acquisitions of assets of €58 billion and net disposals of liabilities of €14 billion.

The current account of the euro area recorded a surplus of €21.0 billion in July 2016. This reflected surpluses for goods (€26.4 billion), services (€4.9 billion) and primary income (€3.4 billion), which were partly offset by a deficit in secondary income (€13.7 billion).

The 12-month cumulated current account for the period ending in July 2016 recorded a surplus of €343.2 billion (3.2% of euro area GDP), compared with one of €309.7 billion (3.0% of euro area GDP) for the 12 months to July 2015. This development was mostly due to an increase in the surpluses for both goods (from €318.8 billion to €363.0 billion) and services (from €63.6 billion to €64.9 billion), as well as a decrease in the deficit for secondary income (from €134.5 billion to €126.0 billion). These were partly offset by decreases in the surplus for primary income (from €61.9 billion to €41.3 billion).

At 10:00 GMT the Bundesbank Monthly Report

At 17:00 GMT the ECB Board member Yves Mersch will make a speech

According to rttnews. the average asking price for a house in the United Kingdom was up 0.7 percent on month in September, property tracking website Rightmove said on Monday - coming in at 306,499 pounds.

That follows the 1.2 percent contraction in August.

On a yearly basis, house prices advanced 4.0 percent - slowing marginally from the 4.1 percent growth in the previous month.

"The rising tide of prices is marooning more and more first-time buyers, out-stripping their ability to meet stricter lending criteria and afford the required deposits and monthly repayments," said Rightmove Director Miles Shipside.

"This week's 'comprehensive assessment' from the BoJ could be one of two things.

On the one hand, it could be a fundamental reassessment of the policy stance, presumably with a view to adding stimulus. Given that the BoJ is missing its inflation forecast by a mile, this is certainly a reasonable expectation.

On the other hand, it could essentially be a PR exercise, selling the benefits of negative rates after the public backlash from the financial sector following the January IOER cut. This would see policy largely unchanged, with a view to building consensus around existing policies and setting the stage, perhaps, for further rate cuts down the road.

We outlines our expectations for the upcoming policy meeting. We are not optimistic. Similar to the ECB, focus at the BoJ has shifted toward making the existing policy stance sustainable, as opposed to adding stimulus to meet the inflation target. A particular risk - not our base case - is that the BoJ could take steps to bear steepen the yield curve, to help the financial sector following the dramatic curve flattening since January. In our view, such a step could further compound market confusion over BoJ objectives and exacerbate the damage done to longer-term inflation expectations year-to-date.

We are lowering our $/JPY forecast to 108, 110 and 115 in 3-, 6- and 12-months (from 115, 120 and 125 previously). Our 3-month target of 108 reflects our view that the BoJ will continue to ease at upcoming meetings, likely via further IOER cuts. The reduction in the 12-month forecast reflects our view that such easing is not enough to reverse the adverse dynamic that has taken hold since January. For that to be the case, more radical steps such as yield caps or price level targeting are needed, which we believe are not on the BoJ's radar screen at the present time".

Copyright © 2016 Goldman Sachs, eFXnews™

In the third quarter the index amounted to 108, which is higher than the previous value of 106. The study of consumer sentiment published by Westpac, is an indicator of consumer and company sentiment and in New Zealand. Typically, the indicator is based on the results of a study in which respondents give their assessment on various issues relating to the current and future economic conditions.

- Middle and high household income had a positive impact on consumer confidence

- lower income can lead to greater concerns about the economic outlook

- Rural areas are particularly concerned about the economic outlook in the coming years

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1304 (2614)

$1.1256 (1100)

$1.1216 (425)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1167

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1115 (3838)

$1.1087 (3471)

$1.1054 (6184)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 7 is 35562 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1400 (4640);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date October, 7 is 39474 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1100 (6184);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.11 versus 1.09 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 16

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3303 (1381)

$1.3205 (1196)

$1.3108 (995)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3036

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2893 (890)

$1.2796 (1695)

$1.2697 (1371)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 7 is 22466 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3450 (2781);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date October, 7 is 22473 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3766);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.00 versus 0.93 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 16

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.