Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 19-11-2018.

Growing affordability concerns resulted in builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes falling eight points to 60 in November on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Despite the sharp drop, builder sentiment still remains in positive territory.

“Builders report that they continue to see signs of consumer demand for new homes but that customers are taking a pause due to concerns over rising interest rates and home prices,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel, a custom home builder from LaPlace, La.

“For the past several years, shortages of labor and lots along with rising regulatory costs have led to a slow recovery in single-family construction,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “While home price growth accommodated increasing construction costs during this period, rising mortgage interest rates in recent months coupled with the cumulative run-up in pricing has caused housing demand to stall.”

Treasury yields ticked higher, paring last week's steep yield decline, as traders watch how U.S.-China trade tensions will shake out ahead of a meeting between President Donald Trump and China's leader Xi Jinping next week.

• Last week Bitcoin plunged to $5,324 from $6,267 after developers implemented a scheduled "hard fork" in Bitcoin Cash, which is a change in the code or the protocol of a cryptocurrency

• Pleased That EU Ministers Support Draft Accord

In September 2018 the current account of the euro area recorded a surplus of €17 billion, compared with a surplus of €24 billion in August 2018.

In the 12-month period to September 2018, the current account recorded a surplus of €357 billion (3.1% of euro area GDP), compared with one of €339 billion (3.1% of euro area GDP) in the 12-month period to September 2017.

In the financial account, euro area residents made net acquisitions of foreign portfolio investment securities of €324 billion in the 12-month period to September 2018 (decreasing from €572 billion in the 12 months to September 2017). Non-residents’ net purchases of euro area portfolio investment securities amounted to €98 billion (down from €267 billion in the 12-month period to September 2017).

• Low Unemployment, 2% Inflation Benefitting Consumers

• It's Only Natural to Get Back to Neutral Interest Rates

• Inflation Well Anchored at 2%, No Reason to Expect Surge

• Strong Job Growth Will Likely Moderate

• Not Surprised by Stock-Market Volatility

• Unworried by Regulated Financial Firms, Cautious About Unregulated Firms

• Will Watch Data to Determine December Rate View

• Moderate Inflation Data Gives Fed Ample Space to Raise Rates Slowly

• Has Favored Three Fed Moves for 2018 for Some Time

• Fed Has Time to Move Slowly Toward 3% Policy Rate

• Anecdotal Information Points to Rising Uncertainty About Outlook

• Sees Just Over 3% GDP Growth This Year Before Moderating in 2019

Some end-of-week comments from several officials showed a bit of caution on how close current rates might be to the so-called neutral rate at which monetary policy is neither boosting or slowing the U.S. economy. According to CME, Fed-fund futures now show a 65% probability of another quarter-point increase in December, versus 69% on Friday and 76% at the end of the prior week.

• Average asking price of property coming to market rises by relatively muted 1.0% (+£3,184) this month, the lowest monthly rate of increase at this time of year since 2010

• Slowest sector is properties with two bedrooms or fewer with a 0.1% monthly price fall, a result of less active buy-to-let investor activity, giving first-time buyers an opportunity this autumn:

• These properties see largest year-on-year increase in average number of days to sell, up from 55 days to 58 days

• Mortgage approvals for new buy-to-let purchases down by 14% compared to a year ago and down by 53% compared to three years ago as more punitive tax regime has its desired effect

• First-time buyers help to fill some of the gap left by lower buy-to-let activity with their year-on-year mortgage approvals up by 1%

Japan posted a merchandise trade deficit of 449.3 billion yen in October, according to rttnews.

That missed forecasts for a shortfall of 70.0 billion yen following the 131,3 billion yen surplus in September.

Exports were up 8.2 percent on year, shy of expectations for an increase of 8.9 percent following the 1.3 percent decline in the previous month.

Imports surged an annual 19.9 percent versus forecasts for 14.1 percent after rising 7.0 percent a month earlier.

The adjusted trade deficit was 302.7 billion yen.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1484 (2530)

$1.1470 (885)

$1.1453 (111)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1395

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1363 (3416)

$1.1336 (5256)

$1.1304 (2285)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 7 is 124926 contracts (according to data from November, 16) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (6274);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3024 (1275)

$1.2982 (647)

$1.2935 (273)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2823

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2743 (2552)

$1.2722 (2787)

$1.2699 (3260)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 7 is 58162 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3100 (5267);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 7 is 47826 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (4397);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.82 versus 0.82 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 16

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.