Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 21-03-2018.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 428.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels last week, but are near the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.0 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels last week, and are in the lower half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 6.9 million barrels last week.

Existing-home sales slumped for the second consecutive month in January and experienced their largest decline on an annual basis in over three years, according to the National Association of Realtors. All major regions saw monthly and annual sales declines last month.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, sank 3.2 percent in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.38 million from a downwardly revised 5.56 million in December 2017. After last month's decline, sales are 4.8 percent below a year ago (largest annual decline since August 2014 at 5.5 percent) and at their slowest pace since last September (5.37 million).

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.6% excluding bonuses, and by 2.8% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

Average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) fell by 0.2% excluding bonuses, but were unchanged including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that, between August to October 2017 and November 2017 to January 2018, the number of people in work and the number of unemployed people both increased, but the number of people aged from 16 to 64 not working and not seeking or available to work (economically inactive) decreased.

There were 32.25 million people in work, 168,000 more than for August to October 2017 and 402,000 more than for a year earlier.

The unemployment rate (the proportion of those in work plus those unemployed, that were unemployed) was 4.3%, down from 4.7% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.

• Reform of tax system laid out in new german govt's coalition agreement is disappointing, answer needed to corporate tax cuts in U.S., Britain and France

• Huge income tax cuts in U.S. and robust economic upturn in euro zone are boosting demand for german goods and services

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2505 (3394)

$1.2473 (2006)

$1.2446 (844)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2349

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2187 (4014)

$1.2141 (5485)

$1.2094 (3216)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date April, 6 is 97944 contracts (according to data from March, 20) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2150 (5485);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4238 (2482)

$1.4170 (2572)

$1.4126 (307)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.4027

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3937 (1340)

$1.3902 (1129)

$1.3864 (3495)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date April, 6 is 31182 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4200 (2721);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date April, 6 is 30353 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3800 (3602);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.97 versus 0.96 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 20

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

The Federal Open Market Committee had kept the rates on hold during its January meeting. However, the U.S. Fed is expected to hike the fed funds rate by 25 basis points during its meeting on Wednesday, noted Wells Fargo in a research report. Inflation has gathered momentum in recent months, with core inflation running at a 3.1 percent three-month annualized rate in February.

The average hourly earnings growth also stayed strong in February following a solid 2.8 percent year-on-year in January, and the labor market continues to tighten. Given higher inflation, rising inflation expectations and a strong employment outlook, four rate hikes are expected this year, said Wells Fargo.

• Trade tensions with the US have clearly risen, posing a downside risk to our baseline outlook‍​

• Imposition of tighter financial regulations since early 2017 has prompted a notable deceleration in credit growth‍​

• Implication for economic policy from president XI Jinping's consolidation of power remains uncertain