Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 21-04-2017.

Existing-home sales took off in March to their highest pace in over 10 years, and severe supply shortages resulted in the typical home coming off the market significantly faster than in February and a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors. Only the West saw a decline in sales activity in March.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, ascended 4.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.71 million in March from a downwardly revised 5.47 million in February. March's sales pace is 5.9 percent above a year ago and surpasses January as the strongest month of sales since February 2007 (5.79 million).

EURUSD: 1.0600 (EUR 1.2bln) 1.0680 (803m) 1.0700-10 (1.7bln) 1.0725 (860m) 1.0750 (531m) 1.0780 (450m) 1.0800 (620m)

USDJPY: 108.00 (USD 1.1bln) 108.30 (388m) 108.50 (544m) 109.00 (651m) 109.15-25 (530M) 110.00 (782m) 110.25 (540m)

GBPUSD 1.2650 (GBP 430m) 1.2675 (350m) 1.2745-50 (211m) 1.2900-10 (365m)

EURGBP: 0.8465 (EUR 401m)

USDCHF 0.9925 (USD 250m)

AUDUSD 0.7500 (192m) 0.7515-25 (528m) 0.7570 (279m)

USDCAD: 1.3340-50 (332m) 1.3380-90 (200m) 1.3400 (320m) 1.3500 (393m) 1.3540 (605m)

NZDUSD: 0.6950-60 (NZD 272m) 0.7025 (357m)

• Would not be surprised if cpi inflation reaches 3 pct in late 2017 or early 2018, above BoE feb forecasts

• Prospective inflation pressure does not imply UK will face persistently high inflation, MPC has not gone soft

• Current monetary policy stance is "clearly accommodative", would provide "considerable stimulus" even after modest rate rise

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.6% on a year-over-year basis in March, following a 2.0% gain in February.

Excluding food and energy, the CPI was up 1.7% year over year in March, after posting a 2.0% increase in February.

Prices were up in five of the eight major components in the 12 months to March, with the transportation and shelter indexes contributing the most to the year-over-year rise in the CPI. The food index and the clothing and footwear index declined year over year, while the price index for household operations, furnishings and equipment was unchanged.

Transportation costs rose 4.6% over the 12-month period ending in March, after increasing 6.6% in February. The increase in transportation costs, as well as the deceleration in the growth of these prices compared with the previous month, was led by the gasoline index. On a year-over-year basis, gasoline prices rose 15.2% in March, following a 23.1% increase in February. The purchase of passenger vehicles index was up 2.1% in the 12 months to March, following a gain of 3.6% in February

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.0750-55 1.0770-75 1.0800 1.0830 1.0850

Bids: 1.0720 1.0700 1.0680-85 1.0650 1.0635 1.0620 1.0600

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.2850 1.2880 1.2900 1.2920 1.2950-60 1.2975 1.3000

Bids: 1.2800 1.2770-75 1.2760 1.2750 1.2720 1.2700 1.2680 1.2650

EUR/JPY

Offers: 117.30 117.50 117.80 118.00 118.50

Bids: 117.00 116.80 116.50 116.30 116.00 115.80-85 115.50

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8380-85 0.8400 0.8425-30 0.8445-50 0.8480 0.8500-05

Bids: 0.8360 0.8350 0.8335 0.8320 0.8300 0.8280 0.8260 0.8200

USD/JPY

Offers: 109.50 109.80 110.00 110.30 110.50 110.80 111.00

Bids: 109.00 108.70 108.50108.30 108.00 107.80 107.50 107.00

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7550 0.7580 0.7600 0.7620 0.7650

Bids: 0.7520-25 0.7500 0.7480-85 0.7465 0.7450

• will renegotiate Schengen Treaty

EURUSD: 1.0600 (EUR 1.2bln) 1.0680 (803m) 1.0700-10 (1.7bln) 1.0725 (860m) 1.0750 (531m) 1.0780 (450m) 1.0800 (620m)

USDJPY: 108.00 (USD 1.1bln) 108.30 (388m) 108.50 (544m) 109.00 (651m) 109.15-25 (530M) 110.00 (782m) 110.25 (540m)

GBPUSD 1.2650 (GBP 430m) 1.2675 (350m) 1.2745-50 (211m) 1.2900-10 (365m)

EURGBP: 0.8465 (EUR 401m)

USDCHF 0.9925 (USD 250m)

AUDUSD 0.7500 (192m) 0.7515-25 (528m) 0.7570 (279m)

USDCAD: 1.3340-50 (332m) 1.3380-90 (200m) 1.3400 (320m) 1.3500 (393m) 1.3540 (605m)

NZDUSD: 0.6950-60 (NZD 272m) 0.7025 (357m)

The 3 months to March shows a decrease of 1.4%; the third consecutive decrease for the underlying 3 month on 3 month pattern.

Looking at the quarterly movement, the 3 months to March 2017 (Quarter 1) is the first quarterly decline since 2013 (Quarter 4).

In March 2017, the quantity bought in the retail industry is estimated to have increased by 1.7% compared with March 2016 and decreased by 1.8% compared with February 2017; decreases are seen across the four main store types.

Average store prices (including fuel) increased by 3.3% on the year, the largest growth since March 2012; the largest contribution came from petrol stations, where year-on-year average prices rose by 16.4%.

Online sales (excluding automotive fuel) increased year-on-year by 19.5% and by 0.5% on the month, accounting for approximately 15.5% of all retail spending.

The current account of the euro area recorded a surplus of €37.9 billion in February 2017. This reflected surpluses for goods (€29.5 billion), services (€9.5 billion) and primary income (€4.2 billion), which were partly offset by a deficit for secondary income (€5.4 billion).

The 12-month cumulated current account for the period ending in February 2017 recorded a surplus of €360.2 billion (3.4% of euro area GDP), compared with one of €341.2 billion (3.2% of euro area GDP) for the 12 months to February 2016 (see Table 1 and Chart 1). This was due to increases in the surpluses for goods (from €344.0 billion to €368.6 billion) and primary income (from €53.7 billion to €79.5 billion). These were partly offset by a decrease in the surplus of services (from €70.7 billion to €49.5 billion) and an increase in the deficit for secondary income (from €127.1 billion to €137.4 billion).

Eurozone economic growth hit a fresh six-year high in April, according to PMI survey data. Job creation also rose to the highest for almost a decade as firms boosted operating capacity in line with buoyant demand and widespread optimism about future prospects. Price pressures meanwhile remained among the strongest seen over the past six years.

The Markit Eurozone PMI rose to 56.7 in April, according to the preliminary 'flash' estimate (based on approximately 85% of final replies). Up from 56.4 in March, the latest reading was the highest since April 2011.

German economic growth remained strong at the start of the second quarter of 2017, despite slower increases in both manufacturing output and services activity compared with the highs seen in March. The April PMI survey data also registered slightly softer rates of new business expansion and job creation, plus a slight moderation in price pressures.

The Markit Flash Germany Composite Output Index registered 56.3 in April, down from March's near six-year high of 57.1. This signalled the first easing in growth of private sector business activity since the start of the year, but still the secondfastest rate of expansion in over three years. The latest data extended the current sequence of continuous growth to four years.

April's flash France PMI data pointed to a tenth consecutive month of private sector growth in France. The Markit Flash France Composite Output Index, based on around 85% of normal monthly survey replies, registered 57.4, compared to March's reading of 56.8.

The latest figure was indicative of the sharpest rate of growth in almost six years. In the service sector, activity increased for the tenth time in as many months. Moreover, the rate of expansion accelerated to a 71-month high and was sharp overall. Manufacturing output also continued to rise markedly, and at the fastest pace in six years.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0846 (1042)

$1.0808 (466)

$1.0785 (177)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0710

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0650 (644)

$1.0603 (862)

$1.0544 (2606)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 61998 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1100 (5063);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 64139 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0400 (5181);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.03 versus 1.03 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 20

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3108 (1934)

$1.3011 (1333)

$1.2915 (1069)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2803

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2688 (219)

$1.2591 (1195)

$1.2494 (4602)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 21009 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (2241);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 25897 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (4602);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.23 versus 1.30 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 20

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI up to 2-month high of 52.8 in April (52.4 in March).

Flash Manufacturing Output Index at 53.6 (53.0 in March). Marked increase in production signalled.

Stronger growth in new export orders recorded.

Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Paul Smith, Senior Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, said: "April's PMI data signalled continued healthy growth of Japan's manufacturing sector, and the latest results were again consistent with production rising at a quarterly rate of around 2%. "Driven by firmer external demand, the sector was underpinned by a stronger export performance in April, with new export orders rising at a rate amongst the best seen in the past three years. Companies are also adding to their workforces at a rate that matched January's 34- month peak, but price pressures continue to mount with input costs and output charges rising at stronger rates."