Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 22-08-2018.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 5.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 408.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels last week and are about 6% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.8 million barrels last week and are about 7% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.9 million barrels last week and are about 13% below the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased last week by 2.5 million barrels last week.

Existing-home sales subsided for the fourth straight month in July to their slowest pace in over two years, according to the National Association of Realtors. The West was the only major region with an increase in sales last month.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 0.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.34 million in July from 5.38 million in June. With last month's decline, sales are now 1.5 percent below a year ago and have fallen on an annual basis for five straight months.

Sales were down in 6 of 11 subsectors, representing 52% of total retail trade.

Lower sales at gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts dealers more than offset higher sales at food and beverage stores and building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers. Excluding the first two subsectors, retail sales were up 0.3%.

After removing the effects of price changes, retail sales decreased 0.3%.

On a quarterly basis, retail sales were up 1.0% in the second quarter following a 0.5% decrease in the first quarter. In volume terms, retail sales increased 0.9% in the second quarte

Kuwait Oil Minister Bakheti Al Rashidi said that the meeting in Algiers will consider the volume of production by OPEC members and countries outside the cartel, and by the end of this year an agreement will be reached on the mechanism for controlling production in the next year.

According to his forecasts, by the end of this year the situation on the world oil market will remain "stable".

"The crisis with Turkey can end instantly if they release Pastor without conditions," Bolton said. He also noted that Turkey should act properly as an ally of NATO.

Bolton also said that, in his view, the Qatar's promise of supporting the Turkish economy would be "completely inadequate." He also touched on the Iranian issue, saying that "Europeans should make a clear choice between doing business with either Iran or the United States."

Bolton's statements did not affect the rate of the Turkish lira, as liquidity remains weak, given that the Turkish markets are closed due to the week of holidays in Turkey.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1649 (890)

$1.1632 (5821)

$1.1611 (1545)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1568

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1524 (4122)

$1.1496 (5357)

$1.1462 (10674)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date September, 7 is 136889 contracts (according to data from August, 21) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (10674);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3018 (3416)

$1.2993 (919)

$1.2957 (621)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2899

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2867 (2780)

$1.2822 (3056)

$1.2792 (2589)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 7 is 35836 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2950 (3416);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 7 is 32219 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2900 (3056);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.90 versus 0.91 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 21.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• BoJ's Efforts To Make Its Stimulus More Sustainable Were Long Overdue

• BoJ's Prolonged Easy Policy Has Pushed Forward Timing Of Banking Sector Consolidation

The dollar remains under pressure on Wednesday, as US President Donald Trump's comments on monetary policy continue to affect the US currency, and markets are awaiting the results of negotiations between the US and China and the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed.

Trump said in an interview with Reuters on Monday that he was not "delighted" with the Fed's rate hike, triggering a subsequent decline in the dollar.

Junichi Ishikawa, senior currency strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo, said that the euro "has already regrouped from its recent fall, and Trump's comments have provided an additional incentive for the short positions that will be observed in the market."

A week ago, the euro fell to 13.5 months low due to fears that the financial turmoil in Turkey, reinforced by the fall of the lira to a record low that could damage European banks.

• It is expected that rental inflation will increase, but it will take some time to affect the CPI

• There is "considerable uncertainty" regarding free labor market facilities

• Drought has a mixed effect on food prices

• I expect that most downward inflation forces will eventually weaken

• We would like to be more confident that inflation will continue at the target level

• The current accommodative position of monetary policy will help this result

• The uncertainty of the government's energy policy contributed to a significant underfunding of new supplies

• Electricity prices are now falling and can reduce inflation for several quarters

• Pricing for electricity issues "significant uncertainty" for inflation

• The growth of retail competition reduced the pressure on inflation

Asian and Pacific non-financial corporations demonstrate a stable credit trend, but increased trade tension creates risks

The further escalation of trade tensions will not only damage growth, both in China and the US, but also spill over to trade-dependent Asian economies

Trade tension creates risks for large exporters of "intermediate goods" to China, where goods are collected in finished products for shipment to the US

Waiting for China's stable credit trend, supported by Moody's expectation of stable stable global growth

Prospects for the advanced economies of the G20 remain positive - an increase of 2.3% is expected in 2018

It is expected that growth in the US will exceed the forecast of other developed G20 countries - at 2.7% in 2018

• The total volume of retail sales rose 1.1 percent.

• 11 of the 15 retail industries had higher sales volumes.

• Hardware, building, and garden supplies had the largest increase, up 4.7 percent after a subdued 0.6 percent increase in the March 2018 quarter.

• Food and beverage services rose 1.7 percent, rebounding from a 1.0 percent fall in the March 2018 quarter.

• Department stores (up 2.8 percent), and electrical and electronic goods (up 2.0 percent), were the next notable increases.

• Supermarket and grocery stores had the largest fall, down 1.1 percent after a 1.0 percent rise in the March 2018 quarter.

• The fuel industry had a 0.7 percent fall in sales volume, its fourth consecutive quarterly fall.