Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
03:00 | Japan | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | -0.1% | -0.1% | |
03:00 | Japan | BOJ Outlook Report | |||
06:30 | Japan | BOJ Press Conference | |||
10:00 | United Kingdom | CBI industrial order books balance | April | 1 | 3 |
12:30 | U.S. | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1653 | 1699 | |
12:30 | U.S. | Initial Jobless Claims | 192 | 200 | |
12:30 | U.S. | Durable Goods Orders | March | -1.6% | 0.8% |
12:30 | U.S. | Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation | March | 0.1% | 0.2% |
12:30 | U.S. | Durable goods orders ex defense | March | -1.9% | 0.1% |
22:45 | New Zealand | Trade Balance, mln | March | 12 | 131 |
23:30 | Japan | Unemployment Rate | March | 2.3% | 2.4% |
23:30 | Japan | Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y | April | 1.1% | 1.1% |
23:30 | Japan | Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y | April | 0.9% | 0.8% |
23:50 | Japan | Retail sales, y/y | March | 0.4% | 0.8% |
23:50 | Japan | Industrial Production (MoM) | March | 0.7% | -0.1% |
23:50 | Japan | Industrial Production (YoY) | March | -1.1% | -0.6% |
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
03:00 | Japan | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | -0.1% | -0.1% | |
03:00 | Japan | BOJ Outlook Report | |||
06:30 | Japan | BOJ Press Conference | |||
10:00 | United Kingdom | CBI industrial order books balance | April | 1 | 3 |
12:30 | U.S. | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1653 | 1699 | |
12:30 | U.S. | Initial Jobless Claims | 192 | 200 | |
12:30 | U.S. | Durable Goods Orders | March | -1.6% | 0.8% |
12:30 | U.S. | Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation | March | 0.1% | 0.2% |
12:30 | U.S. | Durable goods orders ex defense | March | -1.9% | 0.1% |
22:45 | New Zealand | Trade Balance, mln | March | 12 | 131 |
23:30 | Japan | Unemployment Rate | March | 2.3% | 2.4% |
23:30 | Japan | Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y | April | 1.1% | 1.1% |
23:30 | Japan | Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y | April | 0.9% | 0.8% |
23:50 | Japan | Retail sales, y/y | March | 0.4% | 0.8% |
23:50 | Japan | Industrial Production (MoM) | March | 0.7% | -0.1% |
23:50 | Japan | Industrial Production (YoY) | March | -1.1% | -0.6% |
The U.S. Energy Information Administration
(EIA) revealed that crude inventories surged by 5.479 million barrels in the
week ended April 19. Economists had forecast an increase of 1.000 million
barrels.
At the same time, gasoline stocks fell by 2.129
million barrels, while analysts had expected a drop of 1.822 million barrels. Distillate
stocks declined by 0.662 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a
decrease of 0.900 million barrels.
Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. increased
by 100,000 barrels a day to 12.200 million barrels a day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.1
million barrels per day last week, up by 1,157,000 barrels per day from the
previous week.
The National Bank of Belgium (NBB) reported on Wednesday that business confidence in Belgium declined to -3.2 in April from -0.7 in the previous month. That was the lowest level of confidence since September of 2017.
Economists had forecast the reading to drop to -0.8.
According to the report, confidence worsened among manufacturers (-6.1 from -3.1 in March) and constructors (0.5 from 5.2), but improved among service providers (5.7 from 5.3) and traders (-3.6 from -5.9).
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Wednesday the mortgage application volume in the U.S. fell 7.3 percent in the week ended April 19, following a 3.5 percent drop in the previous week.
According to the report, the refinance applications tumbled 11.0 percent and applications to purchase a home declined 4.1 percent.
Meanwhile, the average fixed 30-year mortgage rate increased to 4.46 percent from 4.44 percent.
“Borrowers remain extremely sensitive to rate changes,” noted Mike Fratantoni, MBA senior vice president and chief economist. “Borrowing costs have recently drifted higher because of ebbing geopolitical concerns, as well as signs of strengthening in the U.S. economy, including the recent data pointing to robust retail sales.”
Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the Bank of Canada (BoC) to leave rates unchanged at 1.75%, in line with all private sector forecasts, leaving focus on updated economic projections and tweaks to the statement on monetary policy.
"For the former, we expect the Bank to formally drop its bias towards higher rates by noting that future moves (not hikes) will be subject to increased uncertainty while updated forecasts should see near-term growth downgraded," analysts said.
Chancellor Philip Hammond said Brexit was creating "very significant" uncertainty about the economic outlook, deterring business investment and limiting his ability to make long-term plans on spending and taxes.
Hammond said the government was on track to meet its future fiscal targets and there was significant headroom in his budget for flexibility on spending or tax decisions, but Brexit was stalling longer-term planning.
"Given that there is very significant uncertainty about the future trajectory of the economy right now, and will remain so until we have resolved the Brexit issue, I don't think it makes sense to plump for one option or another," he told.
Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, explains that the USD/CHF pair has recently closed above the top of the range at 1.0128, and yesterday extended its gains.
“The close above one year highs has introduced scope to the 1.0295/January 2015 high and the 1.0343 December 2016 peak. This represents a very tough resistance band for the market. The market will find initial support offered by 1.01 then the 55 day ma at 1.0030 ahead of the 200 day ma at .9932. The 200 day ma guards the March low at .9895 The March low guards the .9870 6 month support line and the .9716 recent low.”
According to Greg Gibbs, analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital, the downside miss on inflation in Australia probably forces the RBA’s hand to cut rates.
“The RBA generally doesn’t fuss too much with appearances once it changes its mind, so a cut at its next policy meeting as soon as 7 May is likely, even though it would come only weeks before the Federal election on 18 May. One cut is unlikely to be viewed as significant enough to make a material difference on the inflation outlook, so a second cut is likely before the dust has had time to settle on the first, so within the next Month (4 June) or two (2 July). The risk is high that a rate cut watch in Australia dominates near term AUD price action and triggers a further significant fall in the currency.”
for first time in decade, we have choices over fiscal policy
we can reach a balanced budget in mid 2020’s if we choose to
once Brexit uncertainty clears, can decide longer-term fiscal policy
we expect to appoint next BOE governor for an 8-year term
but if an outstanding candidate cannot commit as such, we would consider this
UK needs a BOE governor who commands respect in the 'international arena'
Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said that the kingdom's crude production would remain within levels outlined in OPEC-led output cuts but the top oil exporter would also be responsive to its customers' needs.
Falih said "there will be very little variation" in the kingdom's oil production in May from the past couple of months, and Saudi Aramco's crude allocations for June would be made in a couple of weeks.
According to the report from Office for National Statistics, borrowing in the latest full financial year (April 2018 to March 2019) was £24.7 billion, £17.2 billion less than in the previous financial year; the lowest financial year borrowing for 17 years (April 2001 to March 2002).
Borrowing in the latest full financial year was £1.9 billion more than the £22.8 billion forecast by the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) in its Economic and Fiscal Outlook – March 2019.
Borrowing (public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks) in March 2019 was £1.7 billion, £0.9 billion more than in March 2018; with March 2018 remaining the lowest March borrowing since 2006.
Debt (public sector net debt excluding public sector banks) at the end of March 2019 was £1,801.0 billion (or 83.1% of gross domestic product (GDP)); an increase of £22.1 billion (or a decrease of 1.5 percentage points of GDP) on March 2018.
German business morale deteriorated in April, a survey showed, bucking expectations for a small rise and suggesting Europe's largest economy is losing momentum as trade tensions hamper its exporters.
Ifo economic institute said its business climate index fell to 99.2 from an upwardly revised 99.7 in the previous month. The April reading compared with a consensus forecast for 99.9. This monthly indicator published by the IFO economic institute based in Frankfurt defines - via a survey of 7,000 entrepreneurs - the level of confidence in the German economy. This index has a great influence on the Euro currency because it highlights the German economic dynamism and investment levels for the next 6 months.
"The German economy continues to lose steam," Ifo President Clemens Fuest said in a statement.
A new round of tariffs between the US and its main partners would only cause a “modest decrease” in the pace of economic growth in the euro zone, according to research by the European Central Bank.
The study simulated a two-way, 10 percent increase in tariff and other trade barriers between the world’s largest economy and all its partners.
It showed an “overall modest decrease in activity” in the euro area due to fading global confidence outweighing a boost to EU exports to countries other than the US.
The study also showed a decrease of fewer than 10 basis points in the real income of German households from tariffs on the automotive sector even after taking into account cross-country production linkages, known as global value chains (GVC) in economic parlance.
The European Union's system of financial-market access needs adapting to avoid disputes between the EU and Britain over rules after Brexit, a top UK regulator said.
Andrew Bailey, chief executive of the Financial Conduct Authority, said future regulation in Britain will hinge on where the EU system of "equivalence" leads to.
Equivalence refers to Brussels granting foreign banks direct access to customers in the EU if it determines that their home rules are similar enough to those in the EU.
But for this to work after Brexit, it needs a "rules of the game" agreement setting out how equivalence is determined and a mechanism for handling disputes, Bailey said.
Equivalence should be based on whether the outcomes of foreign and EU regulation are the same, rather than on actual rules being written in the same way, Bailey said.
Analysts at TD Securities are looking for downside risks in the German IFO report, with the Current Assessment Index falling 0.8pts to 103.0 (mkt: 103.5) while the Expectations Index remains unchanged at 95.6 (mkt: 96.1).
“Last week's survey data (ZEW, PMI) suggest that March was the trough for activity in the sector, but gains were relatively muted and the data is unlikely to show a more sustained improvement until next month.”
According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/USD remains on the defensive, having failed to make any impact on the 55 and 100 day moving averages at 1.1291/1.1342.
“Attention is on the 1.1176 recent low. Intraday Elliott wave counts are negative and the DMI is also negative. Below 1.1185/75 (61.8% retracement) lies the 1.1110, the May 2017 low and the 1.0814/78.6% retracement. We suspect that the market is trying to base but needs to do more work (we note the 13 count on the weekly chart and this adds weight to the idea of a potential base). Initial resistance is the 100 day ma at 1.1342 and the resistance line at 1.1376 ahead of the 200 day ma at 1.1433.”
Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that today, the April German Ifo data will give us the first indications of where German Q2 GDP growth is headed.
“In contrast to the weak data points from manufacturing PMIs, the German Ifo showed its first rebound in March since August 2018. Will that be confirmed this month? Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave policy rates unchanged at today's monetary policy meeting. Consequently focus will be on the central bank's new monetary policy report, rhetoric and not least any signals on the possibility of rate cuts amid markets now pricing roughly a 2/3 probability of a rate cut over the coming 12M. We don't think BoC will deliver much to the doves today. Given the rise in oil prices, the positive inflation surprises and recent strong labour market reports we think BoC will re-iterate its 'on hold' and data dependency stance, and even maintain its modest tightening bias.”
British employers are their most worried about the economy since the 2016 Brexit referendum, but they also plan to hire extra staff, according to a survey.
More firms were downbeat about the outlook for jobs and investment than were optimistic for only the second time since the Recruitment and Employment Confederation began its surveys in June 2016, the month of the referendum. But in the short term, companies planned to increase their headcount, especially for temporary workers, possibly reflecting their reluctance to make longer-term commitments to investment.
"The more positive figures on hiring for temporary workers suggest that many businesses are turning to agency work to help them navigate the unpredictability they currently face," Neil Carberry, the REC's chief executive, said.
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will travel to Beijing for trade talks beginning on April 30, the White House said in a statement.
It said Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, who will lead the Beijing talks for China, will travel to Washington for more discussions starting on May 8.
"The subjects of next week’s discussions will cover trade issues including intellectual property, forced technology transfer, non-tariff barriers, agriculture, services, purchases, and enforcement," the White House said.
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1361 (4060)
$1.1325 (2630)
$1.1299 (315)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1215
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1185 (3276)
$1.1143 (2876)
$1.1097 (2051)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date May, 3 is 78969 contracts (according to data from April, 23) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (5760);
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.3206 (2109)
$1.3116 (2240)
$1.3044 (280)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2934
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.2874 (1995)
$1.2834 (1607)
$1.2790 (1712)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 3 is 24355 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (2435);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 3 is 22944 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2750 (2373);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.94 versus 0.95 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 23
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
Pare | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
AUDUSD | 0.70983 | -0.53 |
EURJPY | 125.546 | -0.35 |
EURUSD | 1.12221 | -0.31 |
GBPJPY | 144.665 | -0.43 |
GBPUSD | 1.29304 | -0.38 |
NZDUSD | 0.66535 | -0.39 |
USDCAD | 1.34284 | 0.59 |
USDCHF | 1.02002 | 0.49 |
USDJPY | 111.868 | -0.04 |
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