Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 25-07-2017.

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1647 +0,09%

GBP/USD $1,3027 +0,02%

USD/CHF Chf0,95221 +0,55%

USD/JPY Y111,86 +0,62%

EUR/JPY Y130,29 +0,72%

GBP/JPY Y145,734 +0,65%

AUD/USD $0,7935 +0,17%

NZD/USD $0,7418 -0,19%

USD/CAD C$1,25077 0,00%

01:30 Australia CPI, y/y Quarter II 2.1% 2.2%

01:30 Australia CPI, q/q Quarter II 0.5% 0.4%

01:30 Australia Trimmed Mean CPI q/q Quarter II 0.5% 0.5%

01:30 Australia Trimmed Mean CPI y/y Quarter II 1.9% 1.8%

03:05 Australia RBA's Governor Philip Lowe Speaks

06:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator June 1.39

06:45 France Consumer confidence July 108 108

08:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals June 40.35 39.9

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (Preliminary) Quarter II 2% 1.7%

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter II 0.2% 0.3%

14:00 U.S. New Home Sales June 610 615

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories July -4.727

18:00 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision 1.25% 1.25%

18:00 U.S. FOMC Statement

Reports from Fifth District manufacturers improved some in July, according to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index rose from 11 in June to 14 in July - the result of a slight increase in the measures of new orders and employment. The index for shipments remained at its June reading of 13. A larger share of firms reported higher wages and longer workweeks in July, as the wages index rose from 10 in June to 17 in July and the average workweek index rose from 1 to 9.

Manufacturing executives remained generally optimistic about activity six months ahead. Among the indexes for expected activity, almost every measure was well into positive territory and each increased, with the exception of the index for vendor lead time, which held steady at its June level of 7.

EURUSD: 1.1400 (EUR 320m) 1.1500 (2.66bln) 1.1600 (370m) 1.1645-50 (1.25bln) 1.1700 (370m)

USDJPY: 110.50 (USD 470m) 111.00-10 (560m) 112.45 (270m)

EURGBP: 0.8880 (EUR 270m)

AUDUSD: 0.7750 (AUD 430m) 0.7925-30 (260m)

EURJPY: 129.60 (EUR 290m) 130.00 (760m)

USDCNY: 6.7290 (USD 1.1bln) 6.8060 (1bln) 6.82 1.2bln)

U.S. house prices rose in May, up 0.4 percent from the previous month, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (HPI). The previously reported 0.7 percent increase in April was revised downward to reflect a 0.6 percent increase.

The FHFA monthly HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to, or guaranteed by, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. From May 2016 to May 2017, house prices were up 6.9 percent.

For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes from April 2017 to May 2017 ranged from -0.5 percent in the Middle Atlantic division to +1.0 percent in the West South Central division. The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from +4.0 percent in the Middle Atlantic division to +8.7 percent in the Pacific division.

The survey of 397 manufacturers also found that employee headcount increased at the fastest rate for three years and that hiring intentions for the coming quarter also improved. Optimism rose marginally in the three months to July, while export optimism for the year ahead rose at a slower, but still healthy pace.

Growth in total orders moderated in line with expectations, but remained robust. Domestic orders expanded at a strong pace, similar to the rate in the previous quarter, and growth in export orders also remained brisk, despite slowing somewhat.

• Sees no impact from Trump on German economy

• Nothing appears to knock German economy off course at the moment

• Business going well enough to offset euro fx rate

• German companies are experienced in managing fx moves

• Euro fx rate is no impediment to German economy

• Adoption of specific policy steps depends on economic conditions at the time

• BoJ negative rate policy has a significantly large impact on banks' earnings

• Don't see BoJ negative rate policy hurting financial system, intermediation

The ifo Business Climate Index rose from 115.2 points (seasonally adjusted) last month to 116.0 points in July, hitting a new record high for the third month in succession. Companies' satisfaction with their current business situation reached its highest level since Germany's reunification. Their short-term business outlook also improved. Germany's economy is powering ahead.

In manufacturing the index hit a new record high. Assessments of the current business situation scaled unprecedented heights. Manufacturers once again expressed greater optimism about the short-term future. Capacity utilisation rose significantly by 0.7 percentage points to 86.7 percent.

In wholesaling the business climate improved again on the back of far more optimistic business expectations. Assessments of the current business situation, by contrast, edged downwards from last month's record highs. In retailing the index dropped. Retailers were far less satisfied with their current business situation. Their optimism about the short-term business outlook also waned. Both components, however, remain at a very high level.

In May 2017 the seasonally adjusted turnover index increased by +1.5% compared to the previous month (+1.6% in domestic market and +1.2% in non-domestic market). The percentage change of the average of the last three months compared to the previous three months was +0.9% (+0.9% in domestic market and +0.7% in non-domestic market).

In May 2017 the seasonally adjusted industrial new orders index increased by +4.3% compared with April 2017 (+3.9% in domestic market and +4.9% in non-domestic market). The percentage change of the average of the last three months compared to the previous three months was -1.0% (-1.2% in domestic market and -0.8% in non-domestic market).

With respect to the same month of the previous year the calendar adjusted industrial turnover index increased by +7.6% (calendar working days in May 2017 being the same as in May 2016).

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1723 (1449)

$1.1705 (3745)

$1.1686 (5088)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1661

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1628 (770)

$1.1604 (596)

$1.1572 (1643)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date August, 4 is 74134 contracts (according to data from July, 24) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (5088);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3126 (2300)

$1.3105 (2483)

$1.3080 (1711)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3038

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2984 (335)

$1.2955 (639)

$1.2919 (1163)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 4 is 27787 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3100 (3044);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 4 is 26746 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (3054);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.96 versus 0.95 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 24

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Several members said providing information on exit could cause market turbulence

• Several members said companies are taking steps to absorb upward presser on wages

• A few members said important to explain how exit will impact BoJ's finances

• Many members agreed need to keep policy easy because 2 pct inflation target still distant

• One member said 2 pct inflation target is a global standard, can contribute to fx stability

As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the index of import prices increased by 2.5% in June 2017 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In May 2017 and in April 2017 the annual rates of change were +4.1% and +6.1%, respectively. From May 2017 to June 2017 the index fell by 1.1%.

The index of import prices, excluding crude oil and mineral oil products, increased by 2.6% compared with the level of a year earlier.

The index of export prices increased by 1.8% in June 2017 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In May 2017 and in April 2017 the annual rates of change were +2.2% and +2.6%, respectively. From May 2017 to June 2017 the export price index fell by 0.2%.