Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 26-11-2018.

It is now time to turn positive on the pound, says George Saravelos, global co-head of forex research at Deutsche Bank. The U.K. parliament's vote over the Brexit withrawal deal is crucial after the U.K. and the EU signed it. Some say the deal is likely to be rejected by the parliament, which is why the pound hasn't rallied so far. A rejection would raise the risk of a no-deal Brexit. But Mr. Saravelos says the EU could compromise on having amendments to the political declaration on the future relationship. "Should parliament fail to ratify the deal first time around...it may be possible to make changes to the current text at the December 13th/14th EU Council." - via WSJ

• A gradual slowdown is normal as expansions mature and growth converges towards its long-run potential

• The 10-year Treasury note yield is up a single basis point to 3.064%. The 2-year note yield, sensitive to shifting expectations for interest rates, rose 1.7 basis points to 2.837%, while the 30-year bond yield was mostly unchanged at 3.312%. Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields

“Mexico should move the flag waving Migrants, many of whom are stone cold criminals, back to their countries. Do it by plane, do it by bus, do it anyway you want, but they are NOT coming into the U.S.A. We will close the Border permanently if need be. Congress, fund the WALL!”

• I am sure that the basic strength of the economy supports the convergence of inflation to the target

• ECB policy will remain predictable and will continue gradually

• Core inflation is expected to increase in the medium term.

• Significant monetary policy stimulus are still needed.

• All policy tools can be adjusted as needed

• The number of mortgages approved by the main high street banks in October was 4.1 per cent lower than last October; although approvals for house purchase were 3.6 per cent higher, remortgage approvals were 13.5 per cent lower and approvals for other secured borrowing were 1.3 per cent lower.

• The £11.3bn of credit card spending in October was 12.1 per cent higher than last October. Over the past twelve months, the outstanding level of credit card borrowing grew by 5.7 per cent. Personal borrowing through loans and overdrafts grew by 2.3 per cent in the year to October.

• Personal deposits in total grew by 0.8 per cent over the past twelve months. Deposits held in instant access accounts were 2.6 per cent higher than last October.

Sentiment among German businesses weakened further this month. The ifo Business Climate Index fell to 102.0 points in November from 102.9 points (seasonally adjusted) in October, marking its third consecutive decrease. Companies scaled back their assessments of the current business situation albeit from a high level. Their business expectations also clouded over. Together with other indicators, these results point to 0.3 percent economic growth in the fourth quarter at most. The German economy is cooling down.

In manufacturing the business climate deteriorated once again. This development was driven by markedly less favourable assessments of the current business situation. Expectations were also scaled back. Only a few manufacturers still expect an improvement in the next six months. More survey participants nevertheless reported plans to increase prices.

The services sector, the index fell this month due to less optimistic expectations. By contrast, service providers upwardly revised their assessments of the current business situation slightly.

Even though the U.K. and the EU have agreed on a Brexit withrawal deal at the Brussels summit, the pound isn't showing signs of any relief rally, being flat at $1.2813, while it falls slightly against the euro, with EUR/GBP at 0.8860. The deal still has to be voted in the U.K. parliament and there is a chance lawmakers will reject it, says Commerzbank. "The decisive issue remains the vote of the British parliament," it says, adding that parliament is "in disagreement as to whether this deal is the best possible deal" while "the extremists who want a no deal solution." Only news that "tell us something about the decision of parliament should have the ability to move sterling." - via WSJ

• UK Brexit Sec Barclay: Tough Task To Get Brexit Deal Past Parliament If Parliament Rejects Deal We Are In Uncharted Waters

The digital currency has now fallen by about 80% since peaking near $20,000 late last year.

Many speculators have fled the market, as shown by falling trading volumes. And a split this month in a smaller currency called Bitcoin Cash has created tensions. The prospect of large investors selling bitcoin to cover the risks of a fall in the value of their Bitcoin Cash holdings has hurt sentiment.

Now, another worry has emerged: Cryptocurrency miners, the outfits that solve complex equations to generate new digital coins, seem to be losing interest. The amount of computing effort expended by miners, known as the hash rate, has started falling.

For the September 2018 quarter, compared with the June 2018 quarter (seasonally adjusted):

• total value of retail sales rose 0.6 percent ($153 million), with price effects included

• total volume of retail sales was relatively unchanged

• Waikato showed the largest regional growth, up 2.2 percent ($47 million).

Fuel retailing had the largest increase in sales value for the September 2018 quarter (up 7.0 percent or $150 million) when compared with the June 2018 quarter. This strong increase coincided with the start of the Auckland fuel tax and record fuel prices. Auckland and Waikato regional fuel sales were also high.

Food and beverage retailing sales fell 2.4 percent ($71 million) in value in the latest quarter. This was the largest fall since the series began and follows a 1.9 percent rise in the June quarter.

In the September 2018 quarter, department stores had the largest rise in sales volume (up 7.4 percent). Pharmaceutical and other store-based retailing fell 3.1 percent.

A large proportion of these movements resulted from structural changes in the Warehouse Group in July 2018. These changes resulted in a subsidiary from the pharmaceutical and other store-based retailing industry moving into the department stores industry.

However, this has no impact on either the total retail series, or the core retail series.

• Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI falls to 51.8 in November from October’s six-month peak (52.9)

• Manufacturers observe weaker demand for the first time since September 2016

• Business confidence falls for sixth successive month

Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, said: “October’s six-month peak seems to have been just a transitory month-to-month rebound following September’s weather-hit dip. The November PMI dropped to a two-year low as the rate of output growth weakened and new orders for goods declined for the first time since September 2016. “The underlying trend appears to be skewed to the downside. Indeed, the fall in new orders is a worrying development as easing global growth momentum coupled with a weak domestic backdrop could spell further demand woes for Q4. In fact, survey data suggests that manufacturers have already begun to pare back expectations, as confidence fell for a sixth consecutive month.”

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1442 (2229)

$1.1415 (2514)

$1.1394 (918)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1348

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1290 (2292)

$1.1260 (4060)

$1.1225 (4556)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 7 is 123393 contracts (according to data from November, 23) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (5758);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2982 (1922)

$1.2931 (840)

$1.2894 (516)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2820

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2758 (2836)

$1.2739 (3233)

$1.2716 (1617)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 7 is 57900 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (4764);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 7 is 47184 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (4414);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.81 versus 0.86 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 23

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.