Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 28-03-2018.

The international trade deficit was $75.4 billion in February, up $0.1 billion from $75.3 billion in January. Exports of goods for February were $136.5 billion, $2.9 billion more than January exports. Imports of goods for February were $211.9 billion, $3.0 billion more than January imports.

Wholesale inventories for February, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $626.7 billion, up 1.1 percent from January 2018, and were up 5.7 percent (±0.9 percent) from February 2017. The December 2017 to January 2018 percentage change was revised from up 0.8 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 1.0 percent.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.8 percent in 2017, compared with an increase of 1.0 percent in 2016. The PCE price index increased 1.7 percent, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.5 percent, compared

with an increase of 1.8 percent.

During 2017 (measured from the fourth quarter of 2016 to the fourth quarter of 2017), real GDP increased 2.6 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent during 2016. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.9 percent during 2017, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent during

2016.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent.

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the third. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter,

compared with an increase of 2.8 percent in the third quarter.

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and federal government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution from private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased

• Has made clear to relevant firms in a letter that they may plan on the assumption that UK authorisation or recognition will only be needed by the end of the implementation period

• Reasonable for financial services firms to plan that they will be able to continue undertaking activities during the implementation period in much the same way as now

• Oil market is ''stabilising'' and oil prices are ''improving'' Iraqi minister Luaibi says

The survey of 109 firms, consisting of 53 retailers, revealed a weak month for retailers, with year-on-year sales volumes declining for the first time since October 2017.

Additionally, sales for the time of year were significantly below normal, and by the greatest extent since April 2013. The volume of orders placed with suppliers, meanwhile, was broadly unchanged.

The fall in retail sales was broad-based, with lower sales at non-specialised stores (i.e. department stores), furniture & carpets, clothing, and other normal goods the main drags on headline sales growth.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2544 (4352)

$1.2501 (4682)

$1.2478 (1335)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2386

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2337 (3201)

$1.2293 (5953)

$1.2246 (3550)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date April, 6 is 105689 contracts (according to data from March, 27) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2150 (6606);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4332 (2824)

$1.4270 (2747)

$1.4232 (2154)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.4174

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.4069 (652)

$1.4030 (880)

$1.3987 (1183)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date April, 6 is 31132 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4300 (2824);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date April, 6 is 31143 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3800 (3555);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.00 versus 0.99 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 27

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Held talks with China President Xi Jinping during visit

• China's Xi accepted Kim Jong Un's invitation to visit N.Korea

• Kim, Xi exchanged views on improving ties, situation on Korean peninsula

• Will take necessary steps to counter any damage to economy from next year's scheduled sales tax hike

Both economic and income expectations, as well as propensity to buy, are on the increase again.

GfK forecasts an increase in consumer climate for April of 0.1 points in comparison to the previous month to 10.9 points. Apparently the drop in mood in February was just a small dip, even if the losses from the previous month have only partly been compensated for. The decision of SPD party members to enter into the Grand Coalition did not have any significant extra effect on the mood.