Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 28-08-2018.

Fifth District manufacturing activity expanded in August, according to results of the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index rose from 20 in July to 24 in August, as all three components (shipments, new orders, and employment) increased. Respondents remained optimistic in August, expecting growth to continue in the coming months.

Employment and wages continued to rise, yet manufacturing firms continued to struggle to find workers with the skills they needed, as this indicator dropped to −17, its lowest value on record. Firms expect this struggle to continue in the next six months but anticipate sustained employment growth as well.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.2% annual gain in June, down from 6.4% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.0%, down from 6.2% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.3% year-over-year gain, down from 6.5% in the previous month.

Las Vegas, Seattle and San Francisco continued to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In June, Las Vegas led the way with a 13.0% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 12.8% increase and San Francisco with a 10.7% increase. Six of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending June 2018 versus the year ending May 2018. The charts on the following page compare year-over-year returns of different housing price ranges (tiers) for the top two cities, Las Vegas and Seattle.

The international trade deficit was $72.2 billion in July, up $4.3 billion from $67.9 billion in June. Exports of goods for July were $140.0 billion, $2.5 billion less than June exports. Imports of goods for July were $212.2 billion, $1.8 billion more than June imports.

Wholesale inventories for July, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $637.0 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.2 percent) from June 2018, and were up 5.2 percent (±3.9 percent) from July 2017. The May 2018 to June 2018 percentage change was unrevised from the preliminary estimate of up 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent)*.

The results for the last month are compared with the compliance rate of 120% in June and 147% in May and this means that the participants are constantly increasing production.

OPEC and its allies agreed at the end of 2016 to reduce oil production from 2017 by about 1.8 million barrels per day vs the level of October 2016.

"Google search results for "Trump News" shows only the viewing/reporting of Fake New Media. In other words, they have it RIGGED, for me & others, so that almost all stories & news is BAD. Fake CNN is prominent. Republican/Conservative & Fair Media is shut out. Illegal? 96% of results on "Trump News" are from National Left-Wing Media, very dangerous. Google & others are suppressing voices of Conservatives and hiding information and news that is good. They are controlling what we can & cannot see. This is a very serious situation-will be addressed!"

• Annual growth rate of broad monetary aggregate M3 decreased to 4.0% in July 2018 from 4.5% in June (revised from 4.4%)

• Annual growth rate of narrower aggregate M1, comprising currency in circulation and overnight deposits, decreased to 6.9% in July from 7.5% in June

• Annual growth rate of adjusted loans to households stood at 3.0% in July, unchanged from previous month • Annual growth rate of adjusted loans to non-financial corporations stood at 4.1% in July, unchanged from previous month

While RBA Gov. Lowe may have appeared recently to get a bit more willing to talk about higher interest rates, Capital Economics says that even in the most-upbeat scenario Australia's central bank probably won't be in a position to hike until 2H19. But under the firm's more-cautious GDP-growth and inflation forecasts, 2020 could be more plausible.

According to the analysts of the Japanese bank Nomura, the RMB rate will continue its decline. Experts said that despite attempts by the authorities in Beijing to normalize the situation, they will recommend to increase long positions for USD/CNY.

"A number of factors continue to exert pressure on the yuan: firstly, it is a growing trade dispute with the Trump administration, and secondly, the continuing slowdown in the economy. Thirdly, the soft policy of the People's Bank of China.

At the same time, the Fed continues to tighten the monetary policy and will continue to do this at least until the middle of next year.Therefore, we are skeptical about the rate of the renminbi against the US dollar, "Nomura said.

Comments of US President Trump on China were somewhat lost after the announcement of a deal between NAFTA and Mexico.

"They want to talk," Trump said, speaking of Chinese officials. "To be honest, now is not the best time to talk with China."

"Trade relations have been too one-sided for too many years and too many decades, and so now is not the right time to talk," Trump said. "But in the end I'm sure we can reach an agreement with China," the president said. .

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1757 (2369)

$1.1736 (3009)

$1.1711 (1041)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1685

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1639 (3213)

$1.1610 (2984)

$1.1575 (4632)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date September, 7 is 136307 contracts (according to data from August, 27) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (10412);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2995 (3459)

$1.2968 (1195)

$1.2932 (678)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2894

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2834 (3110)

$1.2805 (2646)

$1.2769 (1113)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 7 is 36718 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2950 (3459);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 7 is 33651 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2900 (3110);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.92 versus 0.92 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 27.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.