(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,1846 +0,07%
GBP/USD $1,3407 +0,54%
USD/CHF Chf0,9844 +0,10%
USD/JPY Y111,91 +0,40%
EUR/JPY Y132,57 +0,46%
GBP/JPY Y150,029 +0,94%
AUD/USD $0,7570 -0,31%
NZD/USD $0,6876 -0,28%
USD/CAD C$1,28631 +0,39%
00:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m October -6.1%
00:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence November -10.1
00:05 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence November -10 -11
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m October 0.3% 0.4%
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y October 5.4%
00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m October 1.5% -1.8%
01:00 China Manufacturing PMI November 51.6 51.4
01:00 China Non-Manufacturing PMI November 54.3
05:00 Japan Construction Orders, y/y October -11.6%
05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y October -2.9% -3.1%
06:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter III 0.3% 0.7%
06:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter III 0.3% 0.5%
07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index November 0.2% 0.2%
07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y November 2.5% 2.7%
07:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y October 4.1% 2.8%
07:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted October 0.5% 0.3%
07:45 France CPI, m/m (Preliminary) November 0.1% 0.1%
07:45 France CPI, y/y (Preliminary) November 1.1%
08:00 Eurozone ECB's Yves Mersch Speaks
08:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator November 109.1 109.2
08:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y October -0.4% 0.3%
08:15 Switzerland Retail Sales (MoM) October 0.5%
08:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. November 5.6% 5.6%
08:55 Germany Unemployment Change November -11 -10
10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Preliminary) November 1.4% 1.6%
10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y (Preliminary) November 0.9%
10:00 Eurozone ECB's Peter Praet Speaks
10:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate October 8.9% 8.9%
13:30 Canada Current Account, bln Quarter III -16.3 -19.5
13:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1.904
13:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m October 0.1% 0.2%
13:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y October 1.3% 1.4%
13:30 U.S. Personal spending October 1.0% 0.3%
13:30 U.S. Personal Income, m/m October 0.4% 0.3%
13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 239 240
14:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index November 66.2 63.0
18:00 U.S. FOMC Member Kaplan Speak
22:30 Australia AIG Manufacturing Index November 51.1
23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y November -0.2% -0.1%
23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y November 0.6% 0.6%
23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y October -0.3% -0.4%
23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate October 2.8% 2.8%
23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y October 0.7% 0.8%
23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y October 0.7% 0.2%
23:50 Japan Capital Spending Quarter III 1.5%
Pending home sales rebounded strongly in October following three straight months of diminishing activity, but still continued their recent slide of falling behind year ago levels, according to the National Association of Realtors. All major regions except for the West saw an increase in contract signings last month.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 3.5 percent to 109.3 in October from a downwardly revised 105.6 in September. The index is now at its highest reading since June (110.0), but is still 0.6 percent below a year ago.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the third quarter of 2017, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.0 percent.
With this second estimate for the third quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and private inventory investment were revised up from the prior estimate.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent in the second quarter. The PCE price index increased 1.5 percent, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.4 percent, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent
The inflation rate in Germany as measured by the consumer price index is expected to be 1.8% in November 2017. Based on the results available so far, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that the consumer prices are expected to increase by 0.3% on October 2017.
In November 2017, the harmonised index of consumer prices for Germany, which is calculated for European purposes, is expected to increase by 1.8% year on year. Compared with October 2017, it is expected to be up by 0.3%.
Broad money increased by £3.6 billion in October. Within this, the flow of household M4 was the largest contributor at £3.1 billion. The net flow of sterling credit fell to £2.6 billion in October. Lending to households and private non-financial corporations (PNFCs) was £3.8 billion, broadly in line with the previous month.
Net lending secured on dwellings was broadly unchanged at £3.4 billion in October. Underlying this were increases in gross lending and repayments due to increases in remortgaging activity. Total mortgage approvals increased slightly in October. Within this, remortgaging approvals increased to 51,593, the highest since October 2008. House purchase mortgage approvals fell slightly to 64,575 in October. The annual growth rate of consumer credit was broadly unchanged at 9.6% in October.
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1971 (4231)
$1.1934 (4927)
$1.1904 (4100)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1867
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1816 (1828)
$1.1796 (1594)
$1.1768 (2751)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 8 is 160616 contracts (according to data from November, 28) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1600 (8631);
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.3531 (3033)
$1.3495 (1886)
$1.3464 (2717)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.3423
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.3349 (879)
$1.3290 (612)
$1.3258 (1984)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 8 is 49556 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3400 (3440);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 8 is 45794 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3982);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.92 versus 0.97 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 28
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
In Q3 2017, gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms kept increasing: +0.5%, after +0.6% in Q2.
Household consumption expenditure accelerated (+0.6% after +0.3%) while total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) remained dynamic (+0.9% after +1.1%). All in all, final domestic demand excluding changes in inventories increased: it contributed by +0.6 points to GDP growth in Q3 2017.
The foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth (−0.6 points after +0.5 points): imports accelerated sharply (+2.8% after +0.3%) while exports decelerated significantly (+1.1% after +2.2%). Conversely, changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.5 points after −0.5 points).
In comparison with Q3 2016, GDP rose by 2.2%; such a growth rate had not been observed since 2011.
The UBS consumption indicator inched up to 1.54 points in October from a corrected September figure of 1.51. New registrations for passenger cars and domestic tourism shored up the indicator. By contrast, the index of consumer confidence measured by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs stagnated. In October it was -2 points, virtually unchanged from the previous quarter's -3. Although consumers assess the labor market more positively, expectations with regard to the general economic situation have become slightly gloomier.
We are seeing very good results towards market recovery, we need to continue
The recovery in dairy commodity prices since mid-2016 has helped to reduce bank non-performing loans in the sector
Will monitor the impact of these changes and will only make further lvr adjustments if financial stability risks remain contained
The reserve bank is undertaking a modest easing of the lvr restriction from jan 1 2018
Pressures in the housing market have continued to moderate due to the tightening of lvr restrictions
Housing market policies announced by the government are also expected to have a dampening effect on the housing market
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