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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 31-05-2012.
The yen gained to a more than 11-year high against the euro as investors sought the perceived safety of the nation’s debt amid a deepening European crisis and slowing U.S. growth. Japan’s currency strengthened against all its major counterparts for a second day as the premium investors receive for buying debt of the U.S., U.K. and Germany instead of Japanese securities fell.
The euro rose from the weakest in almost two years versus the dollar after Dow Jones reported the International Monetary Fund has started planning for a potential rescue of Spain. The European department of the IMF has begun contingency planning for a rescue loan to Spain, Dow Jones reported, citing anonymous sources.
Data showed the U.S. economic expansion slowed before tomorrow’s Labor Department payroll data. Gross domestic product rose at a 1.9 percent annual pace in the first quarter, down from a 2.2 percent prior estimate. The number of Americans applying for unemployment insurance payments rose last week to a one-month high.
EUR/USD $1.2350, $1.2420, $1.2500
USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.80, Y80.00
GBP/USD $1.5600
EUR/GBP stg0.8100
USD/CHF Chf0.9600
AUD/USD $0.9700, $0.9820, $0.9850
NZD/USD $0.7600
Data:
05:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter I +0.1% +0.0% +0.7%
05:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter I +1.3% +0.8% +2.0%
06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted April +0.8% +0.2% +0.6%
06:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y April +2.3% +0.3% -3.8%
06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index May -0.2% 0.0% +0.3%
06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y May -0.9% -1.1% -0.7%
06:45 France Consumer spending April -2.9% +0.3% +0.6%
06:45 France Consumer spending, y/y April -2.0% 0.0% +0.4%
07:55 Germany Unemployment Change May 19 -7 0
07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. May 6.8% 6.8% 6.7%
The euro retreated as Spanish and Italian bonds rallied amid speculation the European Central Bank will announce measures to combat the debt crisis when it meets next week.
The common currency rose as polls suggested Irish voters will today endorse measures to ease the region’s debt crisis.
The dollar weakened against most of its major counterparts as gains in European stocks damped demand for the relative safety of the greenback. The Norwegian krone and Swedish krona led gains in higher-yielding currencies.
EUR/USD: the pair restored above $1,2400.
GBP/USD: the pair showed high above $1,5500.
USD/JPY: the pair receded from in Y78,70 area, but fell again later.
At 1345GMT, the MNI Chicago PMI is forecast to rise to a reading of 56.8 in May after falling sharply in April. Other regional data already released have been mixed. At 1430GMT, the weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage, followed at 1500GMT by the EIA Crude Oil stocks data. At 1500GMT, the New York Federal Reserve Bank releases it's Q1 report on Household Debt and Credit. Late US data sees the 1900GMT release of farm prices data and the 2030GMT release of M2 Money Supply.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2550, $1.2500, $1.2480/85, $1.2440/60
Bids $1.2360/50, $1.2335/25
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5615/25, $1.5595/600, $1.5580, $1.5540/55
Bids $1.5480, $1.5450, $1.5420-00
AUD/USD
Offers $0.9895/00, $0.9875/80, $0.9850, $0.9840/45, $0.9800/05, $0.9785/90, $0.9760/65
Bids $0.9720/15, $0.9700, $0.9665/60, $0.9650, $0.9600
EUR/JPY
Offers Y99.50, Y99.15/20, Y99.00, Y98.65/70, Y98.45/50
Bids Y97.65/60, Y97.00, Y96.50
USD/JPY
Offers Y79.85, Y79.45/50, Y79.30, Y79.00
Bids Y78.75/70, Y78.60, Y78.50, Y78.20/15
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8075/80, stg0.8045/50, stg0.8015/20
Bids stg0.7965/60, stg0.7950, stg0.7935/30, stg0.7900
Resistance 3: Y79.60 (resistance line from Apr 2)
Resistance 2: Y79.30/40 (area МА (200) and МА (100) for Н1)
Resistance 1: Y79.10 (session high)
Current price: Y78.80
Support 1: Y78.70/60 (session low, МА (200) for D1))
Support 2: Y78.20 (earlier resistance, area of December and January highs)
Support 3: Y77.30 (Feb 13-14 low)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9800 (psychological level)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9780 (high of 2011)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9720 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.9685
Support 1: Chf0.9660 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.9610 (МА (100) for Н1)
Support 3: Chf0.9550 (МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 2 : $1.5680 (МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 2 : $1.5620 (МА (100) for Н1)
Resistance 1 : $1.5525 (session high)
Current price: $1.5491
Support 1 : $1.5460 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5400 (psychological level)
Support 3 : $1.5230 (low of 2012)
Resistance 3 : $1.2620 (May 24 and 28 highs)
Resistance 2 : $1.2575 (May 29 high, МА (200) for Н1, resistance line from May 1)
Resistance 1 : $1.2500 (МА (100) for Н1)
Current price: $1.2400
Support 1 : $1.2360 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.2300 (psychological level)
Support 3 : $1.2150 (area of lows of June’2010)
EUR/USD $1.2350, $1.2420, $1.2500
USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.80, Y80.00
GBP/USD $1.5600
EUR/GBP stg0.8100
USD/CHF Chf0.9600
AUD/USD $0.9700, $0.9820, $0.9850
NZD/USD $0.7600
Prepared to buy unlimited amount of foreign currency
SNB ready to take further measures any time if needed
Economic situation does not allow firmer monetary policy
See no risk of inflation in foreseeable future
Low interest rates risk for stability of fin system
Current interest rate, minimum fx rate both vital
Prepared to buy unlimited amount of foreign currency
SNB ready to take further measures any time if needed
Economic situation does not allow firmer monetary policy
See no risk of inflation in foreseeable future
Low interest rates risk for stability of fin system
Current interest rate, minimum fx rate both vital
01:00 New Zealand NBNZ Business Confidence April 35.8 27.1
01:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m April +7.4% +0.7% -8.7%
01:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y April -15.0% -13.8% -24.1%
01:30 Australia Private Capital Expenditure Quarter I -0.3% +4.1% +6.1%
01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m April +0.4% +0.3% +0.4%
01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y April +3.4% +3.7% +3.8%
01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY April +1.3% +1.1% +0.8%
05:00 Japan Annualized Housing Starts, bln April 0.848 0.838 0.896
The yen gained against most of its major peers as turmoil in Spain’s banking sector added to signs Europe’s debt crisis is spreading, boosting investor demand for safer assets. The European Central Bank denied it has rejected a plan floated by Spain’s government to recapitalize Bankia group, the nation’s third-largest lender, saying it hasn’t been approached. The Spanish government itself has backtracked on an idea to recapitalize Bankia by injecting sovereign debt into its parent company that, according to the Financial Times, could then be used as collateral to borrow from the ECB. Japan’s currency reached the strongest level in more than three months versus the dollar as the country’s benchmark bond yield fell to the lowest since 2003 and U.S. rates plunged to record lows as shares retreated globally.
The euro slid for an eighth-straight day against the yen, the longest losing streak in almost two years, before data tomorrow forecast to show European manufacturing shrank and the jobless rate in the common currency area increased. A measure of euro-area manufacturing probably decreased to 45 in May from 45.9 in April, the lowest in 35 months, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists before London-based Markit Economics releases its final reading of the gauge tomorrow. The unemployment rate probably climbed to 11 percent last month, the highest in data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 1990, a separate poll showed before labor market figures are released tomorrow.
Losses in the euro were limited as the common currency’s 14-day relative strength index against the dollar fell to 20 yesterday, below the 30 level some traders see as signaling an asset may reverse declines.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair restored, after yesterday's falling.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair holds in a range $1.5460-$1.5485.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell below Y79.00, updated monthly low.
European data for Thursday starts at 0600GMT with Germany retail sales and also the ILO measure of employment data. France data at 0645GMT sees PPI and also consumer spending data, which is expected to come in at 0.3% m/m, 0.2% y/y. The main German unemployment data is due at 0755GMT and is expected to show a change of -5k. At 1100GMT, ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny is due to be present at the Austrian finals of Generation Euro school competition, in Vienna. US data includes same-store sales, although scheduled releases start at 1130GMT with Challenger layoffs. This is followed by the ADP National Employment Report at 1215GMT, while at 1230GMT the weekly jobless claims are due along with the second revision of Q1 GDP data. Also at 1230GMT, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Sandra Pianalto speaks to the National Association for Business Economics, in Cleveland, on monetary policy and the economic outlook. At 1345GMT, the MNI Chicago PMI is forecast to rise to a reading of 56.8 in May after falling sharply in April. Other regional data already released have been mixed. At 1430GMT, the weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage, followed at 1500GMT by the EIA Crude Oil stocks data. At 1500GMT, the New York Federal Reserve Bank releases it's Q1 report on Household Debt and Credit. Late US data sees the 1900GMT release of farm prices data and the 2030GMT release of M2 Money Supply.
Yesterday the euro fell to the lowest level in almost two years against the dollar as Spain struggled to rescue its troubled banks, adding to signs the European debt crisis is spreading to the region’s larger economies. Spain’s 10-year bond yield rose as high as 6.70 percent, approaching the 7 percent level that led to bailouts in Greece, Ireland and Portugal, after central bank Governor Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez resigned a month early amid criticism over the nationalization of Bankia group.
The 17-nation currency slid for a seventh day versus the yen, the longest losing streak in four months, after Italy sold less than its maximum target at a debt auction.
The yen and dollar strengthened as investors sought safer assets after a European report showed economic confidence dropped more than economists estimated in May. The European Commission called for direct euro-bloc aid for troubled banks and touted a Europe-wide deposit-guarantee system and common bond issuance as antidotes to the debt crisis now threatening to overwhelm Spain.
EUR/USD: yesterday the pair fell to a figure, below $1.2400.
GBP/USD: yesterday the pair fell on one and a half figure, below $1.5500.
USD/JPY: yesterday the pair fell to Y79.00.
European data for Thursday starts at 0600GMT with Germany retail sales and also the ILO measure of employment data. France data at 0645GMT sees PPI and also consumer spending data, which is expected to come in at 0.3% m/m, 0.2% y/y. The main German unemployment data is due at 0755GMT and is expected to show a change of -5k. At 1100GMT, ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny is due to be present at the Austrian finals of Generation Euro school competition, in Vienna. US data includes same-store sales, although scheduled releases start at 1130GMT with Challenger layoffs. This is followed by the ADP National Employment Report at 1215GMT, while at 1230GMT the weekly jobless claims are due along with the second revision of Q1 GDP data. Also at 1230GMT, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Sandra Pianalto speaks to the National Association for Business Economics, in Cleveland, on monetary policy and the economic outlook. At 1345GMT, the MNI Chicago PMI is forecast to rise to a reading of 56.8 in May after falling sharply in April. Other regional data already released have been mixed. At 1430GMT, the weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage, followed at 1500GMT by the EIA Crude Oil stocks data. At 1500GMT, the New York Federal Reserve Bank releases it's Q1 report on Household Debt and Credit. Late US data sees the 1900GMT release of farm prices data and the 2030GMT release of M2 Money Supply.
Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index headed for its biggest monthly drop since the 2008 financial crisis, as China damped optimism for large-scale stimulus, adding to global growth concerns after Spain’s credit rating was downgraded.
Nikkei 225 8,633.19 -23.89 -0.28%
S&P/ASX 200 4,094.2 -20.21 -0.49%
Shanghai Composite 2,381.26 -8.37 -0.35%
Samsung Electronics Co., an exporter of consumer electronics that gets 47 percent of its sales in Europe and China, lost 1 percent in Seoul.
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. slid 2.1 percent.
Renesas Electronics Corp., the world’s biggest maker of microcontrollers for cars, surged 27 percent in Tokyo after short-selling of its shares was restricted.
European stocks dropped the most in a week as Italy failed to meet its maximum target at a debt sale, Spain struggled to bolster its banking system and a Greek poll showed increased support for parties opposed to spending cuts.
Italian bonds fell for a fourth day, the longest stretch of losses in more than a month. The nation’s borrowing costs rose at an auction today as it sold 5.73 billion euros ($7.1 billion) of five-year and 10-year securities, short of its maximum target of 6.25 billion euros.
In Greece, a VPRC opinion poll for Epikaira magazine showed that anti-austerity group Syriza had the support of 30 percent of voters, compared with 26.5 percent for New Democracy, which backs the terms of a European Union bailout. Greece holds new elections on June 17.
National benchmark indexes slipped all the 18 western European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 dropped 1.7 percent and Germany’s DAX fell 1.8 percent, while France’s CAC 40 (CAC) slid 2.2 percent. Greece’s ASE Index slumped 3.2 percent.
BASF dropped 2 percent to 56.79 euros after Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung cited Deputy Chief Executive Officer Martin Brudermueller as saying the company isn’t seeing the kind of dynamism it expected in Asia. BASF is considering taking a partner in India, where a backlog of policy changes is holding back growth, the official said.
BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto declined 2.5 percent to 1,707.5 pence and 4.1 percent to 2,801 pence, respectively. Copper fell for a second day, poised for the biggest monthly drop since September.
Fiat Industrial SpA, the truck and tractor manufacturer that Italian carmaker Fiat SpA spun off in 2011, gained 1 percent to 7.97 euros after saying it will merge with tractor unit CNH Global and move its primary listing to New York.
U.S. stocks fell, putting the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index on pace for its worst month since September, as housing data disappointed and concern grew about Greece’s future in the euro and the health of Spanish banks.
Global equities tumbled, U.S. Treasury 10-year yields slid to a record and the euro weakened to a two-year low. The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes fell in April by the most in a year. An opinion poll showed most Greeks want to see the terms of a financial rescue revised.
Costs to protect Spanish government debt with default swaps climbed to a record. The European Central Bank denied it has rejected a plan floated by the Spanish government to recapitalize Bankia group, saying it hasn’t been approached. The Spanish government itself has backtracked on an idea to recapitalize Bankia by injecting sovereign debt into its parent company that, according to the Financial Times, could then be used as collateral to borrow from the ECB.
Commodity, financial and industrial shares fell the most among 10 groups in the S&P 500 today. Bank of America Corp. (BAC) slid 3.2 percent to $7.20. Alcoa Inc. (AA), the largest U.S. aluminum producer, dropped 3.5 percent to $8.58. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the biggest maker of construction equipment, decreased 2.5 percent to $90.18.
Sears lost 9 percent to $52.34 for the biggest drop in the S&P 500. Kohl’s Corp. slumped 3.6 percent to $48.82. Macy’s Inc. fell 1.8 percent to $38.30.
RIM sank 7.8 percent to $10.35, the lowest level since 2003. An exodus of customers to Apple Inc.’s iPhone and Google Inc.’s Android devices has taken a toll on sales and profit, putting pressure on management to make changes. An operating loss would be the company’s first since 2004.
- Significant shortcoming in bank funding structures
- ECB can't fill vaccuum on EMU governance
- The sooner leaders clarify their vision, the better
- ECB can't fill vaccuum of govt fin.,structural reform
- Clear vision of euro future is key for growth
- First need vision, then to substantiate that vision
- A first step could be a banking union
- In recapitalization, better to err by doing too much
- More centralisation for bank supervision is needed
- ECB done a lot in very short time
- ECB can't address bank capital shortage
- Significant shortcoming in bank funding structures
- ECB can't fill vaccuum on EMU governance
- The sooner leaders clarify their vision, the better
- ECB can't fill vaccuum of govt fin.,structural reform
- Clear vision of euro future is key for growth
- First need vision, then to substantiate that vision
- A first step could be a banking union
- In recapitalization, better to err by doing too much
- More centralisation for bank supervision is needed
- ECB done a lot in very short time
- ECB can't address bank capital shortage
Resistance 3: Y79.30 (May 28 low)
Resistance 2: Y79.15 (session high)
Resistance 1: Y78.85 (May 30 low)
The current price: Y78.77
Support 1: Y78.70 (session low)
Support 2: Y78.15 (Feb 15 low)
Support 3: Y77.80 (Feb 10 high)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9775 (Feb 11 high 2011)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9740 (Feb 16 high 2011)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9720 (session high)
The current price: Chf0.9697
Support 1: Chf0.9665 (high of the European session on May 30)
Support 2: Chf0.9610 (May 25-29 high)
Support 3: Chf0.9560 (May 29 low)
Resistance 3 : $1.2575 (May 29 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.2510 (May 30 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.2420 (low of the European session on May 30)
The current price: $1.2375
Support 1 : $1.2355 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.2300 (psychological level)
Support 3 : $1.2200 (psychological level)
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2368 -0,95%
GBP/USD $1,5481 -0,99%
USD/CHF Chf0,9709 +0,96%
USD/JPY Y79,11 -0,52%
EUR/JPY Y97,84 -1,49%
GBP/JPY Y122,45 -1,54%
AUD/USD $0,9710 -1,28%
NZD/USD $0,7528 -1,16%
USD/CAD C$1,0295 +0,64%
01:00 New Zealand NBNZ Business Confidence April 35.8
01:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m April +7.4% +0.7%
01:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y April -15.0% -13.8%
01:30 Australia Private Capital Expenditure Quarter I -0.3% +4.1%
01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m April +0.4% +0.3%
01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y April +3.4% +3.7%
01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY April +1.3% +1.1%
05:00 Japan Annualized Housing Starts, bln April 0.848 0.838
05:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter I +0.1% +0.0%
05:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter I +1.3% +0.8%
06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted April +0.8% +0.2%
06:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y April +2.3% +0.3%
06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index May -0.2% 0.0%
06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y May -0.9% -1.1%
06:45 France Consumer spending April -2.9% +0.3%
06:45 France Consumer spending, y/y April -2.0% 0.0%
07:55 Germany Unemployment Change May 19 -7
07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. May 6.8% 6.8%
08:00 Switzerland Gov Board Member Danthine Speaks -
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (preliminary) May +2.6% +2.5%
12:00 U.S. FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks -
12:15 U.S. ADP Employment Report May 119 139
12:30 Canada Current Account, bln Quarter I -10.3 -11.1
12:30 U.S. GDP, y/y (revised) Quarter I +3.0% +1.9%
12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q Quarter I +2.1% +2.1%
12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 370 369
13:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index May 56.2 56.8
15:00 U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change - +0.9
23:50 Japan Capital Spending Quarter I +7.6% +1.3%
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