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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 31-10-2012.
The euro rose for a second day versus and yen as European governments pressed Greece to make deeper spending cuts to keep aid flowing as they pushed to resolve the region’s three-year-old sovereign-debt crisis.
The 17-nation currency earlier erased a gain against the dollar after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said the timely payment of Greece’s next tranche of aid was “ambitious.” It strengthened earlier against most of its 16 major peers before Portuguese lawmakers hold an initial vote tomorrow on the 2013 budget proposal.
With Greece pleading for a 31 billion-euro ($40 billion) aid payout in November and facing a sixth year of recession in 2013, euro finance ministers said unfreezing loans for the country required more efforts in Athens to rein in the budget deficit and deregulate the economy.
The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners, was little changed at 79.897.
U.S. stock markets erased an earlier gain as trading resumed after a two-day shutdown for Hurricane Sandy, which broke up over Pennsylvania after battering the East Coast since Oct. 29.
The pound strengthened for a second day against the dollar amid speculation the Bank of England will refrain from adding monetary stimulus to the economy when it meets next week. The central bank will announce on Nov. 8 whether to increase its target for asset purchases, or quantitative easing, from 375 billion pounds ($604 billion) after data last week showed gross domestic product expanded 1 percent last quarter as the economy emerged from a recession.
The Canadian dollar fell after the August 2012 Canadian GDP unexpectedly fell by 0.1% compared to 0.2% in July. Governor of the Bank of Canada Carney reiterated that "eventually" may need to raise interest rates.
Euro before the opening of trading in Europe rebounded from the lows at 1.2945, being able to break through 1.3000 against the end of the month.
Prices reached a high of 1.3022, then adjusted, dropping below 1.3000 to session lows at 1.2962.
At the moment the pair EUR / USD is balancing around 1.2970 after data on mortgage applications for MBA in the U.S., employment cost index for the 3rd quarter and the Chicago PMI (49.7 vs. 49.9 in October and forecasts 51.0).
During the teleconference of Eurogroup finance ministers failed to reach agreement on Greece, but Schaeuble said that the country has made some progress. However, in mid-November, the country may be bankrupt.
EUR/USD $1.2800, $1.2870, $1.2875, $1.2900, $1.2910, $1.2940, $1.2950
USD/JPY Y79.25, Y79.50, Y79.60, Y79.70, Y79.75, Y80.00
GBP/USD $1.6100
EUR/GBP stg0.8040, stg0.8100, stg0.8150
AUD/USD $1.0280, $1.0340, $1.0350
EUR/AUD A$1.2525
AUD/NZD NZ$1.2600
AUD/JPY Y81.25
Data
00:00 U.S. FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota -
00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence October -28 -28 -30
00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m September +8.8% +1.1% +7.8%
00:30 Australia Разрешения на строительство, г/г September -12.8% +2.1% 12.4%
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m September +0.2% +0.2% +0.3%
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y September +4.1% +3.9% +4.0%
05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y September -5.5% +16.6% +15.5%
07:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted September +0.1% +0.6% +1.5%
07:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y September -1.1% -1.1% -3.1%
07:45 France Consumer spending September -0.8% +0.2% +0.1%
07:45 France Consumer spending, y/y September -0.6% -0.2% -0.3%
10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (preliminary) October +2.7% +2.5% +2.5%
10:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate September 11.5% 11.4% 11.6%
12:30 U.S. Employment Cost Index Quarter III +0.5% +0.5% +0.4%
12:30 Canada GDP (m/m) August +0.2% +0.2% -0.1%
The euro rose for a second day against the dollar and the yen on speculation that the Portuguese Parliament closer to budget negotiations, and due to the fact that the eurozone finance ministers will hold a conference call today.
The single currency strengthened against 13 of its 16 major counterparts ahead of the primary vote, Portuguese lawmakers on the budget for 2013.
The dollar fell after the Fed's Kocherlakota of Minneapolis, said yesterday that monetary policy is currently "too hard".
Note that the Portuguese parliament should hold a final vote on the budget on November 27. The coalition government is based on the Social Democrats and the conservative parties, which together have a majority of seats in the legislature. Today also presented his budget, the Greek Government.
The dollar index (DXY), which is used to track the value of the dollar against the currencies of six U.S. partner, fell 0.3% to 79.697.
The pound strengthened for a second day against the dollar on speculation that the Bank of England will refrain from further measures to stimulate the economy at the meeting, which is scheduled for next week.
EUR / USD: during the session, the pair showed rapid growth, setting all-time high at $ 1.3020, but now slightly decreased
GBP / USD: Trading in the exchange rate increased significantly, by setting high at $ 1.6135 and then retreated slightly
USD / JPY: the exchange rate is traded upward at maximum
At 13:30 GMT the United States will speak member of the Federal Open Market C. Raskin. At 13:45 GMT the U.S. will PMI Chicago in October. At 14:30 GMT the U.S. will become aware of the change oil according to the Department of Energy. At 16:25 GMT the United States will speak member Federal Open Market Committee D. Williams. At 18:00 GMT by an address by the head of the Bank of Canada Carney.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3100, $1.3080, $1.3040/50, $1.3020/25
Bids $1.2925/10, $1.2885/80, $1.2850
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6180, $1.6140/50
Bids $1.6090/80, $1.6050/40, $1.6010/00, $1.5975/65, $1.5950
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0550, $1.0500, $1.0450, $1.0400
Bids $1.0350, $1.0320, $1.0305/00
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8100, stg0.8080
Bids stg0.8045/40, stg0.8025/20, stg0.8005-00, stg0.7980, stg0.7945/40
EUR/JPY
Offers Y104.50, Y104.20, Y104.00
Bids Y103.35/30, Y103.00, Y102.80, Y102.55/50
USD/JPY
Offers Y80.20/25, Y80.00
Bids Y79.40, Y79.20
I think that Congress will take action to resolve the problem of the fiscal cliff
Fiscal breakage poses a risk to the U.S. economy in 2013
Inflation is expected to remain below the target level of 2%
It is better to focus on the purpose of the Fed, and not on the methods
The Fed did not do too much and its policy was not too soft
Forecasts suggest that the Fed's policy is "too hard, not too soft"
Fed forecasts for inflation and employment indicate room for further stimulus
I think that Congress will take action to resolve the problem of the fiscal cliff
Fiscal breakage poses a risk to the U.S. economy in 2013
Inflation is expected to remain below the target level of 2%
It is better to focus on the purpose of the Fed, and not on the methods
The Fed did not do too much and its policy was not too soft
Forecasts suggest that the Fed's policy is "too hard, not too soft"
Fed forecasts for inflation and employment indicate room for further stimulus
EUR/USD $1.2800, $1.2870, $1.2875, $1.2900, $1.2910, $1.2940, $1.2950
USD/JPY Y79.25, Y79.50, Y79.60, Y79.70, Y79.75, Y80.00
GBP/USD $1.6100
EUR/GBP stg0.8040, stg0.8100, stg0.8150
AUD/USD $1.0280, $1.0340, $1.0350
EUR/AUD A$1.2525
AUD/NZD NZ$1.2600
AUD/JPY Y81.25
Yesterday the dollar fell the most in almost two weeks against the euro amid speculation damage from Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclone Sandy will be less severe than earlier anticipated, damping demand for safer assets. The U.S. currency dropped against all its 16 major counterparts as European shares and U.S. stock futures rallied.
The euro strengthened after a Spanish report showed the economy contracted less in the third quarter than the central bank estimated last week.
The yen rose to a one-week high against the dollar after the BOJ expanded its asset-purchase program by 11 trillion yen to 66 trillion yen at a policy meeting in Tokyo. Fifteen economists forecast the BOJ to add 10 trillion yen to its 55 trillion yen program that buys assets such as government bonds, real estate investment trusts and stock funds. Four saw it increasing purchases by as much as 20 trillion yen.
The pound rose for the first time in three days against the dollar after a report showed an index of U.K. retail sales climbed to a four-month high in October, damping speculation the Bank of England will boost monetary stimulus. The data followed a report last week showing Britain’s GDP expanded 1 percent in the third quarter, as the nation emerged from a double-dip recession.
00:00 U.S. FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota -
00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence October -28 -28 -30
00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m September +6.4% +1.1% +7.8%
00:30 Australia Разрешения на строительство, г/г September -15.4% +2.1% 12.4%
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m September +0.2% +0.2% +0.3%
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y September +4.1% +3.9% +4.0%
05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y September -5.5% +16.6% +15.5%
The U.S. dollar weakened versus most of its 16 major peers on speculation reports tomorrow will show improvement in Chinese manufacturing, brightening the global economic outlook and damping demand for haven assets. Figures due tomorrow may show a manufacturing gauge based on a survey of purchasing managers in China, the world’s second- biggest economy, climbed to 50.2 this month from 49.8 in September, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The greenback remained lower after dropping yesterday against the yen as Asian stocks rose and U.S. capital markets prepared to reopen today after Atlantic storm Sandy swept through New York.
Appetite for the euro was tempered before data that may show unemployment in Europe climbed to a record, adding to signs the debt crisis is hurting growth. The jobless rate in the euro area probably climbed to an all-time high of 11.5 percent in September, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg before the European Union’s statistics office releases the data today.
The Australian and New Zealand currencies held gains after figures today showed better-than-expected building approvals. Australia’s statistics bureau said today the number of permits granted to build or renovate houses and apartments gained 7.8 percent in September from the previous month, exceeding economist estimates for a 1 percent advance. Building approvals in New Zealand also increased 7.8 percent in the month, according to a separate report, the fastest pace since March.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.2955-70.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.6065-85.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of Y79.50-70.
At 1000GMT, the release of unemployment data for the eurozone is due to be published. The German government are due to conduct a press conference in Berlin at 1200GMT. At 1300GMT, Euro-area finance ministers are scheduled to hold a conference call on Greece. US data kicks off at 1100GMT with US MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ending October 26th. US data continues at 1230GMT, with the release of the US Employment Cost Index, which is expected to rise 0.4%in the third quarter following the 0.5% rise in the previous quarter. More US data is due at 1400GMT, with the release of the US October Help-wanted Online report.
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2962 +0,46%
GBP/USD $1,6079 +0,32%
USD/CHF Chf0,9320 -0,46%
USD/JPY Y79,59 -0,25%
EUR/JPY Y103,16 +0,20%
GBP/JPY Y127,96 +0,06%
AUD/USD $1,0364 +0,31%
NZD/USD $0,8211 +0,23%
USD/CAD C$0,9990 -0,19%
00:00 U.S. FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota -
00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence October -28 -28 -30
00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m September +6.4% +1.1% +7.8%
00:30 Australia Разрешения на строительство, г/г September -15.4% +2.1% 12.4%
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m September +0.2% +0.2% +0.3%
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y September +4.1% +3.9% +4.0%
05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y September -5.5% +16.6%
07:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted September +0.3% +0.6%
07:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y September -0.8% -1.1%
07:45 France Consumer spending September -0.8% +0.2%
07:45 France Consumer spending, y/y September -0.5% -0.2%
10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (preliminary) October +2.6% +2.5%
10:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate September 11.4% 11.4%
12:30 U.S. Employment Cost Index Quarter III +0.5% +0.5%
12:30 Canada GDP (m/m) August +0.2% +0.2%
13:30 U.S. FOMC Member Raskin Speaks -
13:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index October 49.7 51.5
14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories - +5.9
16:25 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks -
18:00 Canada BOC Gov Carney Speaks -
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