CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 02-05-2013

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02.05.2013

19:00

Dow +127.61 14,828.56 +0.87% Nasdaq +43.41 3,342.54 +1.32% S&P +14.99 1,597.69 +0.95%

18:20

American focus: the euro exchange rate fell markedly

The euro exchange rate has fallen today, after the Governing Council of the ECB cut interest rates by 25 bps up to 0.5%. In a subsequent press conference, the head of the Central Bank Mario Draghi hinted that the ECB is ready to deystvovat "if the situation requires further reduce the cost of lending. According to Draghi, the spring has kept the euro zone economy weakness, and reduced rates was aimed at maintaining recovery, which should begin later this year. The labor market situation still leaves much to be desired, and the uncertainty continues to weigh on the recovery process. Commenting on the inflation, Draghi said that its recent decline reflects the drop in energy prices, but also a consequence of large-scale temporal effects associated with changes in annual rates of prices for services in the Easter season. He suggested that during the year the inflation will be subject to volatility. The head of the Central Bank made it clear that the monetary authorities will continue to adhere to the accommodative policy as long as necessary. He also said that the ECB will consult with the other European institutions on initiatives to promote the functioning of the market in respect of asset-backed securities, debts of non-financial corporations.

The yen fell against most major currencies, helped by the ECB's decision to lower interest rates. Also influenced by the dynamics of a report from Markit Economics and HSBC, according to which it was reported that the index, which measures the efficiency of production in China, fell in April, while reaffirming the fragile economic recovery. According to the report, the results of April purchasing managers' index, which measures the level of activity in the manufacturing sector fell to 50.4, down from 51.6 in March. Note that, despite the decline, the figure is above 50, indicating expansion of activity, albeit at a slower pace than in the previous month.

The pound fell against the dollar after the ECB rate cut by 0.25% to 0.5%. We also note that today's report showed that business activity index for the UK construction sector in April rose to 49.4 points. Today's data confirmed the trend of yesterday's index for the industrial sector of the country. Let's see what the data show for the services sector, which will be presented tomorrow. Among the British PMI index only the index for the services sector indicates expansion of the sector. Value of the index in March was at the level of 52.4 points in April, is expected to rise to 52.5 points against 49.4 STANDBY for the construction sector and 49.8 for the industry. As for the PMI index for the countries of continental Europe, their final values went above and preliminary forecasts (with the exception of Germany - at the level of the forecast), although it continued to point to a slowdown in the sector (all figures came out below the level of 50 points).

17:20

European stock close:

European stocks rose to a seven-week high as the European Central Bank lowered its benchmark interest rate, while companies from Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) to Bayerische Motoren Werke AG posted profit that beat analysts' estimates.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.3 percent to 297.88 at the close in London, rebounding from a decline of as much as 0.5 percent. The equity benchmark completed an 11th month of gains in April, its longest winning streak since 1997.

The ECB cut its key interest rate to a record low. Central bankers meeting in Bratislava, Slovakia lowered the main refinancing rate to 0.5 percent from 0.75 percent. The ECB left its deposit rate at zero and reduced its marginal lending rate to 1 percent from 1.5 percent.

"Our monetary policy stance will remain accommodative for as long as needed," Draghi said at a press conference after the meeting today. "We are closely monitoring money market conditions and their potential impact on our monetary policy stance and its transmission to the economy."

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve said it will continue to buy $85 billion of bonds a month and will raise or lower purchases if economic conditions change.

"The committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes," the Federal Open Market Committee said late yesterday following a two-day meeting in Washington.

National benchmark indexes declined in nine of the 18 western-European markets today.

FTSE 100 6,460.71 +9.42 +0.15% CAC 40 3,858.76 +2.01 +0.05% DAX 7,961.71 +48.00 +0.61%

Shell rose 1.4 percent to 26.20 euros in Amsterdam. Europe's largest oil company said first-quarter profit excluding one-off items and inventory changes increased 3 percent to $7.5 billion from a year earlier. That beat the $6.4 billion average estimate.

BMW advanced 1 percent to 70.74 euros. The world's biggest luxury-car maker said first-quarter earnings before interest and taxes declined to 2.04 billion euros ($2.7 billion), a smaller drop than analysts had predicted. The company said demand increased for its 3 Series cars.

Beiersdorf AG advanced 4.2 percent to 71.64 euros after the maker of Nivea skin cream reported first-quarter Ebit that exceeded estimates. Emerging-market sales, which contribute almost half of total revenue, jumped, according to a statement. The stock declined 4.6 percent in April, its largest monthly drop in 20 months.

Electricite de France SA (EDF) climbed 1.6 percent to 17.24 euros. French Industry Minister Arnaud Montebourg said the government, which controls about 84 percent of EDF, has no intention of lowering its stake in Europe's biggest power generator.

Statoil retreated 3.9 percent to 135.20 kroner. Norway's national oil company posted adjusted net income of 12 billion kroner ($2.1 billion) for the first quarter, less than the 13.7 billion kroner estimated by analysts.

16:00

European stock close: FTSE 100 6,460.71 +9.42 +0.15% CAC 40 3,858.76 +2.01 +0.05% DAX 7,961.71 +48.00 +0.61%

15:40

Oil: an overview of the market situation

The price of oil rose, breaking the level of $ 100 a barrel as the interest rate cut by the European Central Bank has supported more risky assets, despite the shaky global outlook for oil demand and sufficient stocks.

Note that the dynamics of the trade also affected data on the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance, which fell sharply last week - to the level of 324 thousand, which indicates that the labor market is still recovering.

Meanwhile, today it was announced that the index, which measures the efficiency of production in China, fell in April, while reaffirming the fragile economic recovery. However, it is expected that the recession in the eurozone and sluggish demand in the U.S. is putting pressure on the recovery of China.

However, despite the recent developments in the oil market, a statement from the Federal Reserve that the redemption of bonds in the amount of 85 billion dollars a month to continue, providing some support. Note that many investors are also awaiting the publication of tomorrow's data on the number of U.S. non-farm payrolls for April.

We also add that the drop in oil prices below $ 100, has caused concern in some oil-exporting countries, such as Iran and Venezuela, but Europe's largest oil company Royal Dutch Shell, which has given its report today, said that it did not bother, given the that lower prices will help the economic outlook and ease the pressure on costs in the industry.

The cost of the June futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to 91.65 dollars per barrel.

June futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture rose $ 0.95 to $100.78 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

15:20

Gold: an overview of the market situation

Gold futures rose today, as many investors had hoped that central banks should continue to pursue its policy of "easy money" that will continue to attract buyers to the precious metals.

Let us mention that the Governing Council of the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points up to 0.5%. In a subsequent press conference, the head of the Central Bank Mario Draghi hinted that the ECB is ready to deystvovat "if the situation requires further reduce the cost of lending. According to Draghi, the spring has kept the euro zone economy weakness, and reduced rates was aimed at maintaining recovery, which should begin later this year. The labor market situation still leaves much to be desired, and the uncertainty continues to weigh on the recovery process. Commenting on the inflation, Draghi said that its recent decline reflects the drop in energy prices, but also a consequence of large-scale temporal effects associated with changes in annual rates of prices for services in the Easter season. He suggested that during the year the inflation will be subject to volatility. The head of the Central Bank made it clear that the monetary authorities will continue to adhere to the accommodative policy as long as necessary. He also said that the ECB will consult with the other European institutions on initiatives to promote the functioning of the market in respect of asset-backed securities, debts of non-financial corporations.

We also note that today China, which is the second largest consumer of gold in the world, has resumed trading after a three-day holiday, but the demand was less than a week ago. In addition, it was learned, the demand in the physical market in Hong Kong has also been reduced.

was also easier.

The data also showed that the stocks in the SPDR Gold Trust - the largest gold exchange-traded fund in the world, fell yesterday by 0.31% to 1,075.23 tons, while leaving to the lowest level since September 2009.

The cost of the June gold futures on COMEX today rose to 1466.40 dollars an ounce.

13:45

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3070, $1.3090/95, $1.3135, $1.3100, $1.3150, $1.3160, $1.3200

USD/JPY Y97.00, Y98.00, Y98.50, Y99.00

EUR/JPY Y126.00

GBP/USD $1.5380, $1.5540

USD/CHF Chf0.9255, Chf0.9275, Chf0.9305

AUD/USD $1.0250, $1.0290, $1.0360, $1.0365, $1.0375

NZD/USD $0.8415

13:34

U.S. Stocks open: Dow 14,740.43 +39.48 +0.27%, Nasdaq 3,308.64 +9.51 +0.29%, S&P 1,586.06 +3.36 +0.21%

13:30

Before the bell: S&P futures +0.38%, Nasdaq futures +0.45%

U.S. stock futures rose as the European Central Bank cut its key interest rate and American jobless claims unexpectedly fell.

Global Stocks :

Nikkei 13,694.04 -105.31 -0.76%

Hang Seng 22,668.3 -68.71 -0.30%

Shanghai Composite 2,174.12 -3.79 -0.17%

FTSE 6,433.97 -17.32 -0.27%

CAC 3,845.1 -11.65 -0.30%

DAX 7,945.52 +31.81 +0.40%

Crude oil $91.39 +0.40%

Gold $1464.30 +1.25%