CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 05-04-2017

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei +51.02 18861.27 +0.27%

TOPIX +0.12 1504.66 +0.01%

Hang Seng +139.32 24400.80 +0.57%

CSI 300 +47.84 3503.89 +1.38%

Euro Stoxx 50 -9.08 3472.58 -0.26%

FTSE 100 +9.86 7331.68 +0.13%

DAX -64.80 12217.54 -0.53%

CAC 40 -9.28 5091.85 -0.18%

DJIA -41.09 20648.15 -0.20%

S&P 500 -7.21 2352.95 -0.31%

NASDAQ -34.13 5864.48 -0.58%

S&P/TSX -26.09 15642.99 -0.17%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,0666 -0,11%

GBP/USD $1,2489 +0,37%

USD/CHF Chf1,0041 +0,25%

USD/JPY Y110,51 -0,16%

EUR/JPY Y117,87 -0,27%

GBP/JPY Y138 +0,19%

AUD/USD $0,7567 +0,03%

NZD/USD $0,6968 -0,07%

USD/CAD C$1,3437 +0,27%

01:45 China Markit/Caixin Services PMI March 52.6

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence March 43.1 43.5

06:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) February -7.4% 4%

07:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) March 0.6% 0.5%

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) March 0.5% 0.2%

07:30 Eurozone ECB's Peter Praet Speaks

11:30 Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

11:45 Eurozone ECB's Vitor Constancio Speaks

12:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) February 5.4%

12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 2052 2040

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 258 251

13:00 U.S. President Trump and President Xi Jinping Meeting

13:30 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks

16:40 Eurozone ECB's Peter Praet Speaks

17:15 Eurozone ECB's Vitor Constancio Speaks

23:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index March 53.1

The main US stock indexes showed most of the session, but after the publication of the minutes of the last meeting, the Fed moved to negative territory.

The market was supported by strong data on employment in the private sector of the United States. According to the report, in March the number of employed increased by 263 thousand people compared to the revised indicator for February at the level of 245 thousand (originally reported growth of 298 thousand). It was expected that the number of employed will increase by 187 thousand.

In addition, the growth in the US service sector was maintained in March, although to a lesser extent than in the previous month, as the volumes of incoming orders grew more slowly. The index of business activity in the sphere of services from Markit in the USA, taking into account seasonal fluctuations, remained above the 50.0-neutral neutral mark in March, and extended the current growth period to 13 months. However, the index continued to fall from the recent peak of January, reaching a 6-month low of 52.8 (February: 53.8).

At the same time, the index of business activity in the US services sector, calculated by the ISM, fell to 55.2 points in March compared to 57.6 points in February. The latter value was the lowest since October 2016, when the index was 54.8 points. Analysts predicted that the indicator will worsen only to 57.0 points.

As for the minutes of the Fed meeting, it was reported that the leaders of the Fed during the March meeting agreed "later this year" to start reducing the balance of the Central Bank. However, they did not reach an agreement on the timing and scale of the reduction of the balance sheet. In addition, the protocol showed that the majority of participants in the meeting believed that the gradual rate increase would continue, and a change in the reinvestment policy would be appropriate later in 2017. "Some participants in the meeting made it clear that the Fed should return to buying assets only in case of significant economic problems that will require more supportive monetary policy in the form of lower rates," says the minutes of the March meeting, during which the Fed raised the rate by 0 , 25%, to 0.75% -1.0%.

The components of the DOW index mostly decreased (21 out of 30). The leader of growth was the shares of McDonald's Corporation (MCD, + 0.82%). More shares fell JPMorgan Chase & Co. shares. (JPM, -1.20%).

Almost all sectors of the S & P index showed negative dynamics. The conglomerate sector fell most of all (-1.1%). The increase was recorded only by the service sector (+ 0.2%).

At closing:

DJIA -0.20% 20.647.54 -41.70

Nasdaq -0.58% 5,864.48 -34.13

S & P -0.31% 2,352.84 -7.32

Major U.S. stock-indexes rose on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq hitting a fresh all-time high on strong U.S. private sector-jobs data, which also lifted the dollar as it backed forecasts for at least two more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year. U.S. companies added 263 000 workers in March, the most since December 2014, pointing to further tightening of the labor market, payrolls processor ADP said. The report easily beat the median forecast, among economists surveyed by Reuters, of a 187 000 increase.

Most of Dow stocks in positive area (29 of 30). Top loser - Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO, -0.13%). Top gainer - E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (DD, +2.01%).

All S&P sectors in positive area. Top gainer - Services (+0.8%).

At the moment:

Dow 20795.00 +161.00 +0.78%

S&P 500 2373.25 +16.75 +0.71%

Nasdaq 100 5478.25 +34.25 +0.63%

Oil 51.14 +0.11 +0.22%

Gold 1248.00 -10.40 -0.83%

U.S. 10yr 2.37 +0.02

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 535.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.6 million barrels last week, but are in the upper half of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.5 million barrels last week but are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories fell 1.2 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 1.0 million barrels last week.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

"The NMI registered 55.2 percent, which is 2.4 percentage points lower than the February reading of 57.6 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 58.9 percent, 4.7 percentage points lower than the February reading of 63.6 percent, reflecting growth for the 92nd consecutive month, at a slower rate in March. The New Orders Index registered 58.9 percent, 2.3 percentage points lower than the reading of 61.2 percent in February.

The Employment Index decreased 3.6 percentage points in March to 51.6 percent from the February reading of 55.2 percent. The Prices Index decreased 4.2 percentage points from the February reading of 57.7 percent to 53.5 percent, indicating prices increased for the 12th consecutive month, at a slower rate in March. According to the NMI®, 15 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in March. The sector continues to reflect growth; however, the rate of growth has declined since last month. The majority of respondents' comments indicate a positive outlook on business conditions and the overall economy. There were several comments about the uncertainty of future government policies on health care, trade and immigration, and the potential impact on business."

U.S. stock-index futures as investors were indecisive ahead of today's release of the minutes of the Fed's latest meeting and a day before a potentially tense meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping later this week.

Stocks:

Nikkei 18,861.27 +51.02 +0.27%

Hang Seng 3,270.20 +47.68 +1.48%

Shanghai 24,400.80 +139.32 +0.57%

FTSE 7,342.12 +20.30 +0.28%

CAC 5,110.14 +9.01 +0.18%

DAX 12,251.07 -31.27 -0.25%

Crude $51.71 (+1.33%)

Gold $1,250.70 (-0.61%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Upgrades:

Citigroup (C) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette

Downgrades:

Other:

UnitedHealth (UNH) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank

Private sector employment increased by 263,000 jobs from February to March according to the March ADP National Employment Report.

"The U.S. labor market finished the first quarter on a strong note," said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. "Consumer dependent industries including healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and trade had strong growth during the month."

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics said, "Job growth is off to a strong start in 2017. The gains are broad based but most notable in the goods producing side of the economy including construction, manufacturing and mining."

.

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.0700 1.0730 1.0750 1.0780 1.0800

Bids: 1.0645-50 1.0630 1.0600 1.0580 1.0565 1.0550

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.2450 1.2465 1.2485 1.2500 1.2520 1.2550-55 1.2585 1.2600

Bids: 1.2420 1.2400 1.2375-80 1.2350 1.2330 1.2300 1.2280 1.2250

EUR/JPY

Offers: 117.85 118.00 118.20 118.50 118.65 118.80 119.00

Bids: 117.50 117.30 117.00 116.85 116.50 116.00

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8600 0.8630 0.8650 0.8685 0.8700

Bids: 0.8575 0.8555-60 0.8525-30 0.8500

USD/JPY

Offers: 110.80 111.00 111.20 111.50 111.80 112.00

Bids: 110.50 110.25-30 110.00 109.85 109.65 109.50

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7600 0.7620 0.7650 0.7675 0.7700

Bids: 0.7555-60 0.7530 0.7500 0.7485 0.7450

Romania's central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged, as widely expected, on Wednesday.

The Board of the National Bank of Romania, cited by rttnews, decided to leave the benchmark rate unchanged at 1.75 percent.

The minimum reserve requirement ratio on foreign currency-denominated liabilities of credit institutions and the ratio on the leu-denominated liabilities were maintained at 10 percent and 8 percent, respectively.

The bank reiterated that it will pursue adequate liquidity management in the banking system.

• Some of Greece's lenders have caused delays in bailout review

• Greece is expected to achieve a primary budget surplus of more than 3.0 pct of GDP in 2016

March data pointed to a rebound in UK service sector growth, with business activity and incoming new work both rising at the strongest rates so far in 2017. Survey respondents also remained optimistic about the year-ahead business outlook, with almost half of the survey panel forecasting growth while only one-in-nine expect a fall in activity. However, intense cost pressures continued in March, which led to the fastest rise in prices charged by service sector firms since September 2008.

The headline seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS Services PMI Business Activity Index picked up from 53.3 in February to 55.0 in March, and therefore above the 50.0 no-change value for the eighth consecutive month. Moreover, the latest reading signalled a marked increase in business activity and the fastest pace of expansion since December 2016. This signalled a marked rebound from the five-month low seen in February.

The seasonally adjusted Markit Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index rose to 55.6 in March, from 54.4 in February, signalling the fastest expansion in service sector output since December 2015. In comparison, the index average since the survey began in June 1997 was at 53.1. Activity has risen continuously since June 2013, the second-longest sequence of growth in the survey history.

By sub-sector, growth was fastest in Post & Telecommunication, followed by Renting & Business Activities and Financial Intermediation respectively. Hotels & Restaurants recorded another marked decline in activity.

The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index posted 57.5 in March. Up from 56.4 in February, the latest index reading pointed to the sharpest rate of growth since May 2011. Post & Telecommunications overtook Hotels & Restaurants as the best performing sector.

The final seasonally adjusted Markit France Composite Output Index - which covers the combined manufacturing and service sectors - rose to 56.8 in March from 55.9 in February, and signalled the strongest rate of growth since May 2011.

A key driver of the strong upturn in activity was another rise in new orders, the thirteenth in as many months, with some panellists commenting on a general improvement in economic conditions. Furthermore, the rate of expansion was the sharpest in over five-and-a-half years.

Spanish service providers recorded a further sharp increase in business activity during March as improvements in market conditions helped them to secure greater volumes of new orders. Expectations of further improvements in the wider economy over the coming year led to stronger confidence around future growth of business activity. However, there were signs of building inflationary pressures, with output prices increasing at the fastest pace since prior to the economic crisis.

The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index posted 57.4 in March, down only marginally from February's 18-month high of 57.7 and signalling a further sharp monthly increase in service sector activity. The latest reading extended the current sequence of expansion to 41 months, with panellists reporting improved market conditions and higher new orders from both new and existing clients.

• Suggests free movement of people from the EU to the UK could be extended during implementation phase after Brexit

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0839 (555)

$1.0808 (1073)

$1.0764 (462)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0670

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0619 (502)

$1.0579 (740)

$1.0527 (1705)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 47215 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1450 (3939);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 53763 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0400 (4661);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.14 versus 1.14 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 4

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2709 (806)

$1.2613 (368)

$1.2517 (860)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2430

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2385 (579)

$1.2288 (325)

$1.2191 (542)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 15199 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (1318);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 16731 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3056);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.10 versus 1.14 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 4

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Moody's Investors Service says that New Zealand's Aaa rating and stable outlook are supported by the sovereign's very high economic resilience, and a strong fiscal position compared to peers. Combined with effective institutions and policies, these credit strengths mitigate New Zealand's vulnerability to shifts in external funding or a turn in the housing market..

High income levels, robust population growth and continued strong Asian demand for New Zealand's products and services, including dairy, tourism and education, support the country's very high economic strength.

As such, Moody's expects real GDP growth of around 3.0% through 2017 and 2018, above the Aaa median of 2.0%.

Moody's conclusions were contained in its just-released annual credit analysis, "Government of New Zealand -- Aaa Stable".

This analysis elaborates on New Zealand's credit profile in terms of Economic Strength, Very High (-); Institutional Strength, Very High (+); Fiscal Strength, Very High (+), and Susceptibility to Event Risk, Low (+), which are the four main analytic factors in Moody's Sovereign Bond Rating Methodology. It does not constitute a rating action.

Longer term, New Zealand's potential GDP growth is higher than many Aaa-rated sovereigns. In particular, it benefits from a more favourable demographic profile than in most of its peers.

The Australian Industry Group Australian Performance of Services Index (Australian PSI) improved by 2.7 points in March, moving back into modest expansion at 51.7 points (seasonally adjusted). Results above 50 points indicate expansion, with higher numbers indicating a stronger rate of expansion.

Three of the five activity sub-indexes in the Australian PSI indicated expansion in March (seasonally adjusted). Sales expanded in March (53.8). Employment grew solidly (55.0 points) and new orders improved to 52.3 points. Stocks continued to shrink in March (45.1 points) and supplier deliveries fell into contraction (46.3 points).

Five of the nine services sub-sectors in the Australian PSI® expanded in March (trend data). Property and business services continued to grow strongly (58.0) while finance and insurance (55.5) and wholesale trade (54.3 points) also experienced solid growth. Growth in retail trade was modest but steady (52.3 points) while personal and recreational services slowed in March, with its index falling 3.6 points to 51.3 points.

European stocks finished modestly higher Tuesday, with gains for miners and oil giants offsetting concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's meeting later this week with his Chinese counterpart and U.S. jobs data.

Stocks fought off weakness to end marginally higher on Tuesday as energy shares rebounded in concert with oil prices. But market sentiment remained cautious ahead of a meeting later this week between President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

Gains in commodity prices sent equity markets slightly higher early Wednesday, as investors await the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes later today.