CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 06-01-2015

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

07:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted November +1.9% +0.2%

07:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y November +1.7%

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index December +0.4% +0.3%

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y December +8.2%

08:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves December 462.4

08:55 Germany Unemployment Change December -14 -6

08:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. December 6.6% 6.6%

10:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate November 11.5% 11.5%

10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Preliminary) December +0.3% 0.0%

13:15 U.S. ADP Employment Report December 208 227

13:30 Canada Trade balance, billions November 0.1 -0.2

13:30 U.S. International Trade, bln November -43.4 -42.3

15:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index December 56.9 52.3

15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories December -1.8

19:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes

23:30 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks

Stock indices closed lower as bank shares declined.

Mixed services purchasing managers' index (PMI) from the Eurozone and the U.K. also weighed on markets. Eurozone' final services PMI fell to 51.6 in December from a preliminary reading of 51.9. Analysts had expected the final index to remain at 51.6.

Germany's final services PMI remained rose to 52.1 in December from a preliminary reading of 51.4. Analysts had expected the final index to remain at 51.4.

France's final services PMI increased to 50.6 in December from a preliminary reading of 49.8. Analysts had expected the final index to remain at 49.8.

Investors speculate that the European Central Bank could decide on its policy meeting on January 22 to purchase government bonds.

Markets also remained under pressure due to political uncertainty in Greece. There is speculation that Greece could leave the Eurozone. Greeks will elect new parliament later this month. If a left-wing government wins Greek parliament elections, it may cancel austerity measures and may renegotiate Greece's debt.

The U.K. services PMI dropped to 55.8 in December from 58.6 in November, missing expectations for a rise to 58.9.

Indexes on the close:

Name Price Change Change %

FTSE 100 6,366.51 -50.65 -0.79%

DAX 9,469.66 -3.50 -0.04%

CAC 40 4,083.5 -27.86 -0.68%

Oil extended losses below $50 a barrel amid speculation that U.S. inventories will expand, deepening a global supply glut that's driven prices to a five-year low.

Futures declined for a fourth day. Stockpiles in the world's biggest oil consumer probably rose by 700,000 barrels last week, a Bloomberg News survey shows before a government report tomorrow.

Oil slumped almost 50 percent in 2014, the most since the 2008 financial crisis, after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries resisted calls to cut output as it competes with U.S. producers. The market faces "more problems" this year, according to Morgan Stanley, with surging output in Russia and Iraq contributing to a surplus that Qatar estimates at 2 million barrels a day.

"The path of least resistance is lower," said Bill O'Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis, which oversees $2.4 billion. "There is no bullish news. OPEC refuses to cut production and there is no evidence of falling production outside of OPEC."

West Texas Intermediate for February delivery dropped 98 cents, or 2 percent, to $49.06 a barrel at 10:06 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange after touching $48.47, the lowest since April 2009. The volume of all futures traded was about 83 percent above the 100-day average for the time of day.

Brent for February settlement decreased 70 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $52.41 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange after reaching $51.23, the lowest since May 2009. The European benchmark crude traded at a premium of $3.33 to WTI on the ICE.

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies after the weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data. The ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 56.2 in December from 59.3 in November, missing expectations for a decline to 58.2.

Factory orders in the U.S. dropped 0.7% in November, missing expectations for a 0.3% decrease, after a 0.7% decline in October. That was the fourth straight decline.

The decline was driven by weaker demand for primary metals, industrial machinery and military aircraft.

The euro traded higher against the U.S. dollar. Eurozone' final services purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 51.6 in December from a preliminary reading of 51.9. Analysts had expected the final index to remain at 51.6.

Germany's final services PMI remained rose to 52.1 in December from a preliminary reading of 51.4. Analysts had expected the final index to remain at 51.4.

France's final services PMI increased to 50.6 in December from a preliminary reading of 49.8. Analysts had expected the final index to remain at 49.8.

Political uncertainty in Greece and speculation the European Central Bank will add further stimulus measures still weighed on the euro. There is speculation that Greece could leave the Eurozone. Greeks will elect new parliament later this month. If a left-wing government wins Greek parliament elections, it may cancel austerity measures and may renegotiate Greece's debt.

Investors speculate that the European Central Bank could decide on its policy meeting on January 22 to purchase government bonds.

The British pound traded lower against the U.S. dollar. The weaker-than-expected services data from the U.K. still weighed on the pound. Markit's and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply's services purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the U.K. fell to 55.8 in December from 58.6 in November, missing expectations for a rise to 58.9. That was the lowest level since May 2013.

The Canadian dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar after the weaker-than-expected Canadian Canada's raw materials purchase price index. Canada's Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) dropped 5.8% in November, missing expectations for a 4.6% fall, after a 4.3% decline in October. That was the fifth straight decline.

The Canadian Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) fell 0.4% in November, beating forecasts for a 0.5% decline, after a 0.5% decrease in October.

The New Zealand dollar rose against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major market reports from New Zealand.

The Australian dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar. In the overnight trading session, the Aussie increased against the greenback after the better-than-expected Australian trade data. Australia's trade deficit widened to A$0.93 billion in November from A$0.88 billion in October. October's figure was revised up from a deficit of A$1.32 billion. Analysts had expected the trade deficit to increase to A$1.59 billion.

The Japanese yen rose against the U.S. dollar. In the overnight trading session, the yen increased against the greenback due to increasing demand for safe-haven currency.

Japan's monetary base increased 38.2% in December, beating expectations for a 34.3% rise, after a 36.7% gain in November.

Statistics Canada released its industrial product and raw materials price indexes. The Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) fell 0.4% in November, beating forecasts for a 0.5% decline, after a 0.5% decrease in October. The decline was driven by lower prices for energy and petroleum products.

The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) dropped 5.8% in November, missing expectations for a 4.6% fall, after a 4.3% decline in October. That was the fifth straight decline.

The drop was driven by lower prices for crude energy products.

The U.S. Commerce Department released factory orders data on Tuesday. Factory orders in the U.S. dropped 0.7% in November, missing expectations for a 0.3% decrease, after a 0.7% decline in October. That was the fourth straight decline.

The decline was driven by weaker demand for primary metals, industrial machinery and military aircraft.

Manufacturing in the U.S. is cooling due to a slow economic growth in China and the Eurozone. A recession in Japan also weighed on manufacturing in the U.S.

Factory orders excluding transportation fell 0.6% in November.

The Institute for Supply Management released its non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index for the U.S. on Tuesday. The index fell to 56.2 in December from 59.3 in November, missing expectations for a decline to 58.2.

A reading above 50 indicates a growth in the service sector.

The ISM's new orders index declined to 58.9 in December from 61.4 in November.

The ISM's business activity/production index decreased to 57.2 in December from 64.4 November.

The ISM's employment index fell to 56.0 in December from 56.7 in November.

U.S. stock-index futures were little changed, as investors gauged whether signs of a strong economy will help lift equities.

Global markets:

Nikkei 16,883.19 -525.52 -3.02%

Hang Seng 23,485.41 -235.91 -0.99%

Shanghai Composite 3,353.01 +2.49 +0.07%

FTSE 6,397.68 -19.48 -0.30%

CAC 4,116.37 +5.01 +0.12%

DAX 9,550.03 +76.87 +0.81%

Crude oil $49.15 (-1.78%)

Gold $1210.90 (+0.57%)

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

Upgrades:

FedEx (FDX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS, tgt to $190 from $184

Downgrades:

DuPont (DD) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup

General Electric (GE) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank

Other:

McDonald's (MCD) target raised to $93 from $86, maintain Hold at Jefferies

The Bank of England released its Credit Conditions Survey on Tuesday. The survey reported that household demand for mortgages fell in Q4 to its lowest level since the third quarter of 2008. Lenders expected an increase in mortgage demand.

Demand for credit card lending rose significantly in Q4 to its highest level of yearly 2007.

EUR/USD: $1.2000(E287mn), $1.2050(E605mn)

USD/JPY: Y119.80($600mn), Y120.00($1.25bn)

USD/CHF: Chf1.0000($300mn)

AUD/USD: $0.8200(A$558mn), $0.8250(A$321mn)

AUD/JPY: Y98.00(A$1.4bn)

NZD/USD: $0.7710(NZ$456mn)

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

00:30 Australia Trade Balance November -0.88 Revised From -1.32 -1.59 -0.93

01:45 China HSBC Services PMI December 53.0 53.4

08:48 France Services PMI (Finally) December 49.8 49.8 50.6

08:53 Germany Services PMI (Finally) December 51.4 51.4 52.1

08:58 Eurozone Services PMI (Finally) December 51.9 51.9 51.6

09:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services December 58.6 58.9 55.8

09:30 United Kingdom BOE Credit Conditions Survey Quarter IV

The U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies ahead of the U.S. economic data. The ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index is expected to decline to 58.2 in December from 59.3 in November.

Factory orders in the U.S. are expected to decline 0.3% in November, after a 0.7% drop in October.

The euro declined against the U.S. dollar after the mixed services purchasing managers' index (PMI) from the Eurozone. Eurozone' final services PMI fell to 51.6 in December from a preliminary reading of 51.9. Analysts had expected the final index to remain at 51.6.

Germany's final services PMI remained rose to 52.1 in December from a preliminary reading of 51.4. Analysts had expected the final index to remain at 51.4.

France's final services PMI increased to 50.6 in December from a preliminary reading of 49.8. Analysts had expected the final index to remain at 49.8.

Political uncertainty in Greece and speculation the European Central Bank will add further stimulus measures still weighed on the euro. There is speculation that Greece could leave the Eurozone. Greeks will elect new parliament later this month. If a left-wing government wins Greek parliament elections, it may cancel austerity measures and may renegotiate Greece's debt.

Investors speculate that the European Central Bank could decide on its policy meeting on January 22 to purchase government bonds.

The British pound dropped against the U.S. dollar after the weaker-than-expected services data from the U.K. Markit's and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply's services purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the U.K. fell to 55.8 in December from 58.6 in November, missing expectations for a rise to 58.9. That was the lowest level since May 2013.

The Canadian dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar ahead of Canadian raw materials purchase price index. Canada's raw materials purchase price index is expected to decline 4.6% in November, after a 4.3% drop in October.

EUR/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.1883

GBP/USD: the currency pair fell to $1.5175

USD/JPY: the currency pair rose to Y119.38

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

13:30 Canada Raw Material Price Index November -4.3% -4.6%

15:00 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing December 59.3 58.2

15:00 U.S. Factory Orders November -0.7% -0.3%

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2200, $1.2150, $1.2125/20, $1.2100, $1.2000

Bids $1.1900, $1.1865, $1.1800

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5620, $1.5545, $1.5485, $1.5430, $1.5400

Bids $1.5175, $1.5100, $1.5000

AUD/USD

Offers $0.8250, $0.8200, $0.8165/60

Bids $0.8080, $0.8035, $0.8000, $0.7950

EUR/JPY

Offers Y146.00/05, Y145.50, Y145.30, Y144.15, Y143.00

Bids Y141.85, Y141.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y121.85, Y121.50, Y121.20, Y120.90/00, Y119.95

Bids Y118.25, Y118.00, Y116.80

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.7900, stg0.7880/85, stg0.7860-70

Bids stg0.7755/50, stg0.7745, stg0.7720, stg0.7700, stg0.7680

Markit and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply released their services purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the U.K. on Tuesday. The U.K. services PMI dropped to 55.8 in December from 58.6 in November, missing expectations for a rise to 58.9. That was the lowest level since May 2013.

A reading above 50 indicates growth in the sector.

Markit's chief economist Chris Williamson noted that "the loss of momentum towards the year end will no doubt fuel worries that the upturn is too fragile to withstand higher interest rates".

Stock indices traded mixed after the mixed services purchasing managers' index (PMI) from the Eurozone and the U.K. Eurozone' final services PMI fell to 51.6 in December from a preliminary reading of 51.9. Analysts had expected the final index to remain at 51.6.

Germany's final services PMI remained rose to 52.1 in December from a preliminary reading of 51.4. Analysts had expected the final index to remain at 51.4.

France's final services PMI increased to 50.6 in December from a preliminary reading of 49.8. Analysts had expected the final index to remain at 49.8.

Political uncertainty in Greece still weighed on markets. There is speculation that Greece could leave the Eurozone. Greeks will elect new parliament later this month. If a left-wing government wins Greek parliament elections, it may cancel austerity measures and may renegotiate Greece's debt.

The U.K. services PMI dropped to 55.8 in December from 58.6 in November, missing expectations for a rise to 58.9.

Current figures:

Name Price Change Change %

FTSE 100 6,376.64 -40.52 -0.63%

DAX 9,521.88 +48.72 +0.51%

CAC 40 4,118.59 +7.23 +0.18%

Gold prices traded higher on Tuesday, continuing the upward movement started yesterday. Spot gold rose to $1,214.30 a troy ounce in morning European trade. Gold price increased as concerns over the economy in the Eurozone and political uncertainty in Greece weighed on stocks. Yesterday's inflation data from the Eurozone showed that German preliminary consumer price index decreased to 0.2% in December from 0.6% in November, missing forecasts for a decline to 0.4%. That was the lowest level since October 2009.

Investors speculate that the European Central Bank could decide on its policy meeting on January 22 to purchase government bonds.

There is also speculation that Greece could leave the Eurozone. Greeks will elect new parliament later this month. If a left-wing government wins Greek parliament elections, it may cancel austerity measures and may renegotiate Greece's debt.

Bloomberg

European Stocks Fall as Oil Drops Below $50; Yen Gains

European equities extended a global selloff as crude oil sank to the lowest level in almost six years. Asian stocks (MXAP) tumbled the most since March.

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-05/asian-futures-drop-as-oil-sinks-stocks-euro-holds-losses.html

Reuters

Brent falls below $52 as oil hits new five-and-a-half year lows

(Reuters) - Oil prices sank to fresh 5-1/2-year lows on Tuesday, extending losses after a 5 percent plunge in the previous session as worries over a global supply glut intensified.

Brent crude fell by 3 percent to below $52 (34 pounds) a barrel as cuts to monthly oil selling prices for European buyers by top OPEC producer Saudi Arabia heightened worries about oversupply.

Source: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/01/06/uk-markets-oil-idUKKBN0KE06T20150106

RTTNews

Asian Stocks Join Global Selloff

Asian stocks fell for a second consecutive session on Tuesday following heavy losses in the U.S. and European markets overnight. Slumping oil prices and growing concerns that Greece might leave the European currency union left investors fleeing risky assets for the presumed safety of government bonds and the safe-haven Japanese yen.

Source: http://www.rttnews.com/2437836/asian-stocks-join-global-selloff.aspx

Concerns Greece could leave the Eurozone and falling oil prices weighed on global stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.86% to 17,501.65 points on Monday, while the S&P 500 decreased 1.83% to 2,020.58 points. There were released no major economic reports in the U.S. yesterday.

Europe's stock indices declined for a third day.

UK's FTSE 100 index was down 1.07% to 6,348.33 points. Germany's DAX 30 declined 0.19% to 9,455.23 points, while France's CAC 40 fell 0.43% to 4,093.72.

Concerns over the economy in the Eurozone and political uncertainty in Greece. Yesterday's inflation data from the Eurozone showed that German preliminary consumer price index decreased to 0.2% in December from 0.6% in November, missing forecasts for a decline to 0.4%. That was the lowest level since October 2009.

Investors speculate that the European Central Bank could decide on its policy meeting on January 22 to purchase government bonds.

There is also speculation that Greece could leave the Eurozone. Greeks will elect new parliament later this month. If a left-wing government wins Greek parliament elections, it may cancel austerity measures and may renegotiate Greece's debt.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.99% to 23,485.41, China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.07% to 3,353.01. The Chinese HSBC services purchasing managers' index increased to 53.4 in December from 53.0 in November.

Chinese stocks were supported by speculation Shenzhen will be added to a share trading link between Shanghai and Hong Kong stock exchanges.

Japan's Nikkei dropped 3.02% to 16,883.19 due to falling prices and concerns over the Eurozone's economy. That was the biggest drop of Japanese stock index in nearly 10 months.

A stronger yen weighed on exporters' shares. The yen strengthened due to risk aversion.

Japan's monetary base increased 38.2% in December, beating expectations for a 34.3% rise, after a 36.7% gain in November.

EUR/USD: $1.2000(E287mn), $1.2050(E605mn)

USD/JPY: Y119.80($600mn), Y120.00($1.25bn)

USD/CHF: Chf1.0000($300mn)

AUD/USD: $0.8200(A$558mn), $0.8250(A$321mn)

AUD/JPY: Y98.00(A$1.4bn)

NZD/USD: $0.7710(NZ$456mn)

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

00:30 Australia Trade Balance November -0.88 Revised From -1.32 -1.59 -0.93

01:45 China HSBC Services PMI December 53.0 53.4

08:48 France Services PMI (Finally) December 49.8 49.8 50.6

08:53 Germany Services PMI (Finally) December 51.4 51.4 52.1

08:58 Eurozone Services PMI (Finally) December 51.9 51.9 51.6

09:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services December 58.6 58.9 55.8

09:30 United Kingdom BOE Credit Conditions Survey Quarter IV

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies. The greenback was supported by concerns over the economy in the Eurozone and political uncertainty in Greece. Yesterday's inflation data from the Eurozone showed that German preliminary consumer price index decreased to 0.2% in December from 0.6% in November, missing forecasts for a decline to 0.4%. That was the lowest level since October 2009.

There is also speculation that Greece could leave the Eurozone. Greeks will elect new parliament later this month. If a left-wing government wins Greek parliament elections, it may cancel austerity measures and may renegotiate Greece's debt.

The New Zealand dollar rose against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major market reports from New Zealand.

The Australian dollar increased against the U.S. dollar after the better-than-expected Australian trade data. Australia's trade deficit widened to A$0.93 billion in November from A$0.88 billion in October. October's figure was revised up from a deficit of A$1.32 billion. Analysts had expected the trade deficit to increase to A$1.59 billion.

The Japanese yen gained against the U.S. dollar due to increasing demand for safe-haven currency. Japan's monetary base increased 38.2% in December, beating expectations for a 34.3% rise, after a 36.7% gain in November.

EUR/USD: the currency pair rose to $1.1968

GBP/USD: the currency pair increased to $1.5273

USD/JPY: the currency pair fell to Y118.64

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

13:30 Canada Raw Material Price Index November -4.3% -4.6%

15:00 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing December 59.3 58.2

15:00 U.S. Factory Orders November -0.7% -0.3%

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2204 (3971)

$1.2113 (1237)

$1.2036 (2368)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.1958

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1890 (210)

$1.1862 (7221)

$1.1827 (2014)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 9 is 66918 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (6660);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 9 is 63785 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1900 (7221);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.95 versus 1.05 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 5

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.5500 (978)

$1.5401 (901)

$1.5304 (1436)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.5258

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.5195 (2389)

$1.5098 (704)

$1.4999 (474)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 9 is 30361 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5850 (4020);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 9 is 23372 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5500 (2692);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.77 versus 0.86 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 5

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.