CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 13-07-2017

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei +1.43 20099.81 +0.01%

TOPIX -0.23 1619.11 -0.01%

Hang Seng +302.53 26346.17 +1.16%

CSI 300 +28.10 3686.92 +0.77%

Euro Stoxx 50 +12.60 3527.83 +0.36%

FTSE 100 -3.49 7413.44 -0.05%

DAX +14.75 12641.33 +0.12%

CAC 40 +13.27 5235.40 +0.25%

DJIA +20.95 21553.09 +0.10%

S&P 500 +4.58 2447.83 +0.19%

NASDAQ +13.27 6274.44 +0.21%

S&P/TSX -8.99 15135.00 -0.06%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1399 -0,11%

GBP/USD $1,2939 +0,38%

USD/CHF Chf0,9669 +0,17%

USD/JPY Y113,28 +0,09%

EUR/JPY Y129,13 -0,03%

GBP/JPY Y146,57 +0,46%

AUD/USD $0,7730 +0,69%

NZD/USD $0,7319 +0,83%

USD/CAD C$1,2726 -0,14%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally) May 5.7% 6.8%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) May 4.0% -3.3%

09:00 Eurozone Trade balance unadjusted May 17.9

12:30 U.S. Retail Sales YoY June 3.8%

12:30 U.S. Retail sales June -0.3% 0.1%

12:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto July -0.3% 0.2%

12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m June 0.1% 0.2%

12:30 U.S. CPI, m/m June -0.1% 0.1%

12:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y June 1.9% 1.7%

12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y June 1.7% 1.7%

13:15 U.S. Capacity Utilization June 76.6% 76.7%

13:15 U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) June 0% 0.3%

13:15 U.S. Industrial Production YoY June 2.2%

13:30 U.S. FOMC Member Kaplan Speak

14:00 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) July 95.1 95

14:00 U.S. Business inventories May -0.2% 0.3%

17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count July 763

Major US stock indices slightly added, as the fall in prices for shares in the utilities sector was offset by growth in the financial sector.

Meanwhile, the dynamics of trading influenced by US data. As it became known, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell for the first time in a month, which confirmed the opinion of the Federal Reserve System that the labor market is strengthening. Initial applications for unemployment benefits, a measure of the number of workers laid off in the US, declined by 3,000 to 247,000, seasonally adjusted for the week ending July 8, the Ministry of Labor said. Economists had expected 245,000 initial hits.

In addition, wholesale prices in the US increased slightly in June, providing a little more evidence that inflationary pressures remain moderate. Last month, the producer price index rose by 0.1%, the government said in a statement. Economists had expected a 0.1% decrease in PPI.

The cost of oil jumped by more than 1%, as evidence of a stronger demand for oil from China compensated for the negative, contained in the report of the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Components of the DOW index finished trading mixed (14 in negative territory, 16 in positive territory). Leader of growth were shares of Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT, + 1.66%). The outsider was E.I du Pont de Nemours and Company (DD, -1.12%).

Most sectors of S & P showed an increase. The financial sector grew most (+ 0.4%). The utilities sector showed the greatest decrease (-0.3%).

At closing:

DJIA + 0.10% 21.553.09 +20.95

Nasdaq + 0.21% 6.274.44 +13.27

S & P + 0.19% 2,447.83 +4.58

• Agrees could find ways to 'reduce the burden' of Volcker rule

EURUSD: 1.1200 (EUR 1.3bln) 1.1240 (550m) 1.1300 (730m) 1.1390-00 (890m) 1.1440-50 (1.2bln)

USDJPY:112.55 (590m) 113.20-30 (1.2bln) 113.50-60 (1.1bln) 113.90-00 (700m)

EURGBP: 0.8790 (EUR 240m)

EURJPY: 128.00 (EUR 580m) 128.50 (710m)

AUDUSD: 0.7540 (AUD 475m) 0.7620 (500m) 0.7660 (360m)

USDCAD: 1.2940-50 (1.25bln) 1.3000 (525m) 1.3075 (600m) 1.3200 (1.37bln)

U.S. stock-index futures were flat as investors hit pause following yesterday's rally.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 20,099.81 +1.43 +0.01%

Hang Seng 26,346.17 +302.53 +1.16%

Shanghai 3,219.04 +21.49 +0.67%

S&P/ASX 5,736.80 +63.00 +1.11%

FTSE 7,414.11 -2.82 -0.04%

CAC 5,244.73 +22.60 +0.43%

DAX 12,626.66 +0.08 0.00%

Crude $45.44 (-0.11%)

Gold $1,220.00 (+0.07%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

AT&T (T) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill

Twitter (TWTR) upgraded to Mixed from Negative at OTR Global

Intl Paper (IP) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman

Arconic (ARNC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Seaport Global Securities

HP (HPQ) initiated with a Neutral at Susquehanna; target $20

In the week ending July 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 247,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 248,000 to 250,000. The 4-week moving average was 245,750, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 243,000 to 243,500.

Toronto was the largest contributor to the national gain, rising 1.1% from April to May. Builders linked higher prices to market conditions, a shortage of developed land and higher construction costs.

Prices for new houses in Vancouver rose for a third consecutive month, up 2.2% in May and the largest increase for this census metropolitan area since May 2007. Builders cited favourable market conditions as the main reason for the gain.

Builders in Guelph (+1.7%), London (+1.5%) and St. Catharines-Niagara (+0.9%) also reported market conditions as the primary driver of higher new house prices.

Prices were down in five metropolitan areas and unchanged in nine.

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.1 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in May and rose 0.5 percent in April. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 2.0 percent for the 12 months ended in June.
In June, almost 80 percent of the rise in the final demand index is attributable to prices for final demand services, which increased 0.2 percent. The index for final demand goods edged up 0.1 percent.
Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.2 percent in June. For the 12 months ended in June, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 2.0 percent.

• Expect decrease in availability of unsecured household credit in q3 due to changing appetite for risk, changing economic outlook

• Expect credit to corporate sector to remain unchanged in q3

• Demand for mortgage lending to rise in q3, no change in unsecured lending; demand for borrowing by large companies to fall further in q3

• Expect slight fall in availability of mortgage lending in q3 driven by declines in high loan-to-value lending

• Global oil demand growth saw dramatic acceleration in q2, revises 2017 growth forecast up 100,000 bpd to 1.4 mln bpd

• Sees hefty stock draw later in 2017 provided there is strong compliance with OPEC cuts and even if Libya, Nigeria output recovers further

• Oil stocks fell in may to 266 mln barrels above 5-year average, vs 300 mln in april

• Crude output rose by 340,000 bpd in june to highest level in 2017 on Saudi, Libyan, Nigerian increase

• Compliance with cuts 78 pct in june vs 95 pct in may, lowest in 6 months; non-OPEC compliance 82 pct

The total index of producer and import prices fell by 0.1% in June 2017 compared with the previous month, reaching the level of 99.7 points (December 2015 = 100 basis). The decline is mainly due to lower prices for scrap and wood products. Compared with June 2016, the price level of the total supply of domestic and imported products fell by 0.1 per cent.

This is evident from the figures of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). The decline in the producer price index compared to the previous month was due in particular to the lower prices for scrap, as well as products for building carpentry and interior construction.

In June 2017, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) was stable for the second consecutive month. Seasonally adjusted, it was unchanged too, after a downturn by 0.2% in May. Year on year, consumer prices slowed down slightly (+0.7% after +0.8%).

Over a month, the increase in services prices due to a seasonal rebound in airfares was offset by a drop in energy prices and a downturn in food prices. The prices of manufactured products rose barely over a month, as in the two previous months.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1559 (4090)

$1.1531 (2743)

$1.1490 (2974)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1446

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1396 (439)

$1.1374 (1350)

$1.1347 (1795)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date August, 4 is 62781 contracts (according to data from July, 12) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (4090);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3058 (2346)

$1.3002 (1690)

$1.2965 (1162)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2912

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2856 (313)

$1.2812 (2018)

$1.2749 (2784)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 4 is 24839 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3100 (3035);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 4 is 23653 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (2784);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.95 versus 0.93 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 12

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Food prices rose 0.2 percent in the June 2017 month. However, after seasonal adjustment, food prices fell 0.3 percent.

In June 2017 compared with May 2017:

Fruit and vegetable prices fell 0.4 percent (down 6.5 percent after seasonal adjustment).

Meat, poultry, and fish prices rose 1.0 percent.

Grocery food prices fell 0.3 percent (down 0.3 percent after seasonal adjustment).

Non-alcoholic beverage prices rose 1.8 percent.

Restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food prices rose 0.2 percent.

The expected inflation rate (30-per-cent trimmed mean measure), reported in the Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations, rose by 0.8 percentage points to 4.4 per cent in July from 3.6 per cent in June. In June, the weighted proportion of respondents (excluding the 'don't know' category) expecting the inflation rate to fall within the 0-5 per cent range decreased by 3.6 percentage points to 66.4 per cent. The weighted mean of responses within this range rose by 0.2 percentage points to 2.5 per cent.

China's exports increased at a faster-than-expected pace in June, the General Administration of Customs said Thursday.

In dollar terms, exports grew 11.3 percent year-over-year in June, faster than the 8.9 percent rise economists had forecast.

Similarly, imports surged 17.2 percent in June from a year ago, bigger than the expected growth of 14.5 percent.

The trade surplus totaled $42.8 billion in June versus the expected surplus of $42.6 billion.

Consumer prices in Germany rose by 1.6% in June 2017 compared with June 2016. This means that the inflation rate as measured by the consumer price index was slightly up, following a decrease to 1.5% in May 2017 (April 2017: +2.0%). Compared with May 2017, the consumer price index rose by 0.2% in June 2017. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) thus confirms its provisional overall results of 29 June 2017.

In June 2017, the development of energy prices had a downward effect on the overall inflation rate. Compared with the same month a year earlier, Energy prices remained unchanged in June 2017. The increase in energy prices thus slowed again (May 2017: +2.0%; April and March 2017: +5.1% each). The prices of some energy products (for example, electricity: +1.5%; heating oil: +0.9%; motor fuels: +0.2%) were slightly up in June 2017 on a year earlier. Decreases were observed for gas prices (-3.2%) and charges for central and district heating (-1.1%). Excluding energy (total), the inflation rate in June 2017 was +1.8%.

Food prices rose 2.8% from June 2016 to June 2017. The year-on-year increase in food prices thus accelerated again in June 2017 (May 2017: +2.4%; April 2017: +1.8%). In June 2017, prices were up on a year earlier especially for edible fats and oils (+25.9%), especially butter (+59.5%) was much more expensive. For all dairy products, too, consumers had to pay markedly more (+13.2%). Price increases were also recorded, among other things, for fish and fish products (+3.4%) and for meat and meat products (+1.8%), whereas prices were down especially for vegetables (-3.2%).

Excluding energy and food prices, the inflation rate was +1.6% in June 2017.

European stocks finished with losses Tuesday, as investors took a cautious approach ahead of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen's testimony to Congress. The pan-European index traded with a gain of as much as 0.3% just after the open, but the optimism quickly fizzled.

U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday with the Dow industrials setting its first closing record in nearly a month as Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen emphasized the central bank's gradual approach to normalizing monetary policy and expressed optimism about the economy in congressional testimony.

Global equities extended their rally in Asia on Thursday, as dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen improved risk-taking appetite. In her testimony on Capitol Hill, Yellen signaled that the Fed would take a cautious approach to tightening policy in the face of an uncertain inflation outlook. She said the Fed would continue to raise interest rates gradually, though it would change plans if inflation weakness persisted.