CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 18-04-2017

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei +63.33 18418.59 +0.35%

TOPIX +5.84 1471.53 +0.40%

Hang Seng -337.12 23924.54 -1.39%

CSI 300 -17.19 3462.63 -0.49%

Euro Stoxx 50 -38.48 3409.78 -1.12%

FTSE 100 -180.09 7147.50 -2.46%

DAX -108.56 12000.44 -0.90%

CAC 40 -80.85 4990.25 -1.59%

DJIA -113.64 20523.28 -0.55%

S&P 500 -6.82 2342.19 -0.29%

NASDAQ -7.31 5849.47 -0.12%

S&P/TSX -62.32 15622.57 -0.40%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,0730 +0,81%

GBP/USD $1,2842 +2,16%

USD/CHF Chf0,996 -0,79%

USD/JPY Y108,43 -0,53%

EUR/JPY Y116,34 +0,28%

GBP/JPY Y139,24 +1,64%

AUD/USD $0,7557 -0,42%

NZD/USD $0,7038 +0,40%

USD/CAD C$1,3379 +0,48%

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) March -4.1%

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) March -2.7%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y (Finally) March 0.9% 0.7%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI March 0.4% 0.8%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Finally) March 2% 1.5%

09:00 Eurozone Trade balance unadjusted February -0.6

12:00 Eurozone ECB's Benoit Coeure Speaks

14:30 Eurozone ECB's Peter Praet Speaks

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories April -2.166

16:30 U.S. FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks

19:00 U.S. Fed's Beige Book

22:45 New Zealand CPI, y/y Quarter I 1.3% 2%

22:45 New Zealand CPI, q/q Quarter I 0.4% 0.8%

23:50 Japan Trade Balance Total, bln March 813.4 575.8

Major US stock indexes declined on Tuesday, as corporate heavyweights Goldman Sachs and Johnson & Johnson disappoint investors with their quarterly results, while geopolitical tensions continued to affect the sentiment of market participants.

In addition, as it became known, in March, US housing construction fell, as the construction of single-family houses in the Midwest recorded the largest decline in three years, probably due to bad weather. The laying of new houses fell by 6.8% to an annual rate of 1.22 million units, the Commerce Ministry said on Tuesday. The laying of new homes for February was revised to 1.30 million units from the previously reported 1.29 million units.

At the same time, the demand for heating increased industrial production in March. The Federal Reserve said that industrial production rose by 0.5% in March, with the increase attributable to record growth in the volume of public utilities. The release of utility services in March rose by a record 8.6%, as colder temperatures returned after warm weather in the first two months of the year, the Fed said.

Quotes of oil moderately decreased, reaching a 2-week low, which was due to news that the volume of oil shale in the US is likely to increase sharply in May. According to the forecasts of the US Energy Ministry, the production of shale oil in the fields of the largest oil and gas producing regions of the USA in May will grow by 124 thousand barrels per day in comparison with April - up to 5.193 million barrels.

Components of the DOW index finished the session in different directions (16 in negative territory, 14 in positive territory). The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. fell more than the rest. (GS, -4.72%). The leader of growth was shares UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH, + 1.06%).

Most sectors of the S & P index showed a decline. The main materials sector fell most of all (-0.8%). The growth leader was the conglomerate sector (+ 0.4%).

At closing:

DJIA -0.55% 20,523.96 -112.96

Nasdaq -0.12% 5,849.47 -7.32

S & P -0.29% 2,342.22 -6.79

• U.S fiscal policy a potential upside risk that pushes inflation higher

• Not incorporating fiscal stimulus into economic forecasts

EURUSD: 1.0500 (EUR 485m) 1.0530-40 (312m) 1.0600 (3.6bln) 1.0630 (495m) 1.0650 (2.8bln) 1.0670-80 (470m) 1.0690 (385m) 1.0700 (1.74bln) 1.0740-50 (1.65bln)

USDJPY: 108.00-10 (USD 905m) 108.55-65 (700m) 109.00 (500m) 109.80 (230m) 110.00 (600m) 110.30-40 (270m)

USDCHF 0.9975 (USD 250m)

EURGBP 0.8565 (EUR 210m) 0.8602 (240m)

AUDUSD: 0.7530 (AUD 295m) 0.7550-55 (1.34bln) 0.7650 (303m) 0.7680-90 (700m)

USDCAD 1.3200-10 (USD 610m) 1.3300 (336m) 1.3400 (300m)

U.S. stock-index fell as investors weighed a possible delay in tax reforms, while keeping an eye on quarterly earnings and global politics.

Stocks:

Nikkei 18,418.59 +63.33 +0.35%

Hang Seng 23,924.54 -337.12 -1.39%

Shanghai 3,196.60 -25.57 -0.79%

FTSE 7,194.96 -132.63 -1.81%

CAC 5,008.08 -63.02 -1.24%

DAX 12,035.85 -73.15 -0.60%

Industrial production was unchanged in February following a 0.1 percent decrease in January. In March, manufacturing output moved up 0.5 percent for its sixth consecutive monthly increase. Mining output jumped 2.7 percent, but the index for utilities fell 5.7 percent, as continued unseasonably warm weather further reduced demand for heating. At 104.7 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production in February was 0.3 percent above its level of a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector declined 0.1 percentage point in February to 75.4 percent, a rate that is 4.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2016) average.

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Upgrades:

McDonald's (MCD) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Bernstein; target raised to $160 from $129

Downgrades:

Other:

UnitedHealth (UNH) target raised to $200 from $178 at Mizuho

Foreign investment in Canadian securities reached a record high $38.8 billion in February, led by issuances of new Canadian shares to non-resident investors. At the same time, Canadian investors acquired $6.3 billion of foreign securities, mainly US instruments.

Foreign investment in Canadian securities reached a record high $38.8 billion in February. This investment was largely in Canadian equities with the vast majority resulting from cross-border merger and acquisition activities. Foreign investors also acquired $3.0 billion of Canadian debt securities in February.

Foreign investment in Canadian equities amounted to $35.9 billion in February, the largest such investment on record. Issuances of new Canadian shares to non-resident portfolio investors resulting from cross-border mergers and acquisitions led the investment during the month. Sales by non-residents on the secondary market slightly moderated the overall inflow of funds. Canadian stock prices edged up and the Canadian dollar was down by 1.6 US cents against its US counterpart in February.

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,260,000. This is 3.6 percent (±2.8 percent) above the revised February rate of 1,216,000 and is 17.0 percent (±1.2 percent) above the March 2016 rate of 1,077,000. Single-family authorizations in March were at a rate of 823,000; this is 1.1 percent (±1.9 percent)* below the revised February figure of 832,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 401,000 in March.

Housing Starts

Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,215,000. This is 6.8 percent (±12.5 percent)* below the revised February estimate of 1,303,000, but is 9.2 percent (±9.1 percent) above the March 2016 rate of 1,113,000. Single-family housing starts in March were at a rate of 821,000; this is 6.2 percent (±10.0 percent)* below the revised February figure of 875,000. The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 385,000.

UnitedHealth reported Q1 FY 2017 earnings of $2.37 per share (versus $1.81 in Q1 FY 2016), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $2.17.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $48.723 bln (+9.4% y/y), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $48.211 bln.

The company also sued raised guidance for FY 2017, projecting EPS of $9.65-9.85 (versus previously forecast $9.30-9.60 and analysts' consensus estimate of $9.51) and revenues of $200 bln (versus previously forecast $197-199 bln and analysts' consensus estimate of $198.94 bln).

UNH rose to $171.00 (+2.29%) in pre-market trading.

Johnson & Johnson reported Q1 FY 2017 earnings of $1.83 per share (versus $1.68 in Q1 FY 2016), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $1.77.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $17.766 bln (+1.6% y/y), missing analysts' consensus estimate of $18.020 bln.

The company also issued guidance for FY 2017, projecting EPS of $7.00-7.15 versus analysts' consensus estimate of $7.08 and revenues of $75.4-76.1 bln versus analysts' consensus estimate of $75.21 bln.

JNJ fell to $124.20 (-1.21%) in pre-market trading.

• Saudi sovereign Sukuk issues will be in small denominations to encourage public to invest

• Saudi government likely to resume domestic debt issues in next month or two

Goldman Sachs reported Q1 FY 2017 earnings of $5.15 per share (versus $2.68 in Q1 FY 2016), missing analysts' consensus estimate of $5.19.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $8.026 bln (+26.6% y/y), missing analysts' consensus estimate of $8.329 bln.

GS fell to $219.25 (-3.10%) in pre-market trading.

Bank of America reported Q1 FY 2017 earnings of $0.41 per share (versus $0.21 in Q1 FY 2016), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $0.35.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $22.445 bln (+6.9% y/y), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $21.766 bln.

BAC rose to $23.00 (+0.83%) in pre-market trading.

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.0670 1.0685 1.0700 1.0730 1.0750 1.0780 1.0800

Bids: 1.0635 1.0620 1.0600 1.0580 1.0565 1.0550 1.0530 1.0500

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.2600 1.2620 1.2650 1.2675-80 1.2700

Bids: 1.2570 1.2550 1.2520 1.2500 1.2480 1.2465 1.2450

EUR/JPY

Offers: 116.30 116.50 116.80 117.00 117.30 117.50

Bids: 115.80-85 115.50 115.20 115.00

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8480 0.8500-05 0.8520 0.8550-55 0.8580 0.8600

Bids: 0.8450 0.8425-30 0.8400 0.8385 0.8350

USD/JPY

Offers: 109.20-25 109.50 109.80 110.00 110.30 110.50

Bids: 108.80 108.65 108.50 108.30 108.00 1.0780 1.0750

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7580 0.7600 0.7620 0.7650 0.7670 0.7700

Bids: 0.7530 0.7500 0.7480-850.74650.7450

• plans to seek early U.K. election on June 8

EURUSD: 1.0500 (EUR 485m) 1.0530-40 (312m) 1.0600 (3.6bln) 1.0630 (495m) 1.0650 (2.8bln) 1.0670-80 (470m) 1.0690 (385m) 1.0700 (1.74bln) 1.0740-50 (1.65bln)

USDJPY: 108.00-10 (USD 905m) 108.55-65 (700m) 109.00 (500m) 109.80 (230m) 110.00 (600m) 110.30-40 (270m)

USDCHF 0.9975 (USD 250m)

EURGBP 0.8565 (EUR 210m) 0.8602 (240m)

AUDUSD: 0.7530 (AUD 295m) 0.7550-55 (1.34bln) 0.7650 (303m) 0.7680-90 (700m)

USDCAD 1.3200-10 (USD 610m) 1.3300 (336m) 1.3400 (300m)

• Swiss sight deposits of domestic banks at 480.63 bln CHF in week ending april 14 versus 476.198 bln CHF a week earlier

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0798 (1057)

$1.0751 (462)

$1.0720 (126)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0646

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0597 (507)

$1.0556 (762)

$1.0505 (1755)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 54761 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (5047);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 59558 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0400 (5218);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.09 versus 1.07 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 17

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2807 (1268)

$1.2711 (660)

$1.2615 (425)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2575

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2488 (648)

$1.2391 (808)

$1.2294 (907)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 16489 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (1368);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 19170 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3063);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.16 versus 1.17 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 17

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Recent data provide more confidence that global growth accelerating broadly

• Chinese economy appeared to have strengthened; protectionist policies in U.S still a risk

• Tighter regulations to reinforce prudent lending, curb interest-only loans

• Would take some time to assess effects of new rules, ready to do more if needed

• Repeats a rising in AUD would complicate economic adjustment

• Gdp likely expanded at moderate pace in q1, impact of cyclone debbie unlikely to be large

• Commodity prices to boost national income in q1, but terms of trade to decline from here

• Labour market somewhat weaker than expected, keeping wage growth low

• Cpi expected to pick up above 2 pct in 2017, core inflation to rise more slowly

• Appreciate the challenging times in which the people of Japan live, says "we are with you 100 percent"

• Look forward to announcing framework for ongoing economic dialogue with Japan deputy PM Aso

• Told Abe alliance between U.S and Japan is cornerstone of peace and security in region

European stocks slid Thursday, with banks leading the charge south after President Donald Trump's comments about the dollar and interest rates.

U.S. stocks bounced back on Monday to close near session highs, halting three straight sessions of declines for major benchmarks, as banks enjoyed their best daily rally in six weeks.

A stronger dollar and overnight gains in U.S. stocks helped many Asia-Pacific equities as trading returned in full following the Easter Monday holiday. Chinese steel mills are hunting for higher-grade product to minimize their coking-coal needs after prices of metallurgical coal surged because Cyclone Debbie curbed shipments from Australia. Fortescue responded by offering deeper discounts on its iron ore.