CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 19-12-2017

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 57.46

Gold 1264.80 +0.05%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei -33.77 22868.00 -0.15%

TOPIX -2.72 1815.18 -0.15%

Hang Seng +203.25 29253.66 +0.70%

CSI 300 +50.04 4035.33 +1.26%

Euro Stoxx 50 -27.20 3582.22 -0.75%

FTSE 100 +7.08 7544.09 +0.09%

DAX -96.51 13215.79 -0.72%

CAC 40 -37.67 5382.91 -0.69%

DJIA -37.45 24754.75 -0.15%

S&P 500 -8.69 2681.47 -0.32%

NASDAQ -30.91 6963.85 -0.44%

S&P/TSX +1.71 16133.35 +0.01%

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1840 +0,50%

GBP/USD $1,3385 +0,02%

USD/CHF Chf0,98483 -0,08%

USD/JPY Y112,88 +0,31%

EUR/JPY Y133,65 +0,80%

GBP/JPY Y151,092 +0,33%

AUD/USD $0,7661 -0,05%

NZD/USD $0,6972 -0,28%

USD/CAD C$1,28781 +0,12%

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m October -0.5%

07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) November 0.3% 0.2%

07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) November 2.7% 2.6%

09:00 Eurozone Current account, unadjusted, bln October 41.8 33.4

11:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance December 26 20

13:00 Germany German Buba President Weidmann Speaks

13:15 United Kingdom BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks

13:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m October -1.2% 0.5%

14:00 Belgium Business Climate December 1.6 2.1

14:00 Switzerland SNB Quarterly Bulletin

15:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales November 5.48 5.52

15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories December -5.117 -3.518

21:45 New Zealand GDP q/q Quarter III 0.8% 0.5%

21:45 New Zealand GDP y/y Quarter III 2.5% 2.3%

Major US stock indices fell slightly due to expectations of a vote on the bill to review the US tax system, as well as reduce the price of Apple shares after two strong growth sessions.

In addition, as it became known, the current account deficit in the US, the indicator of trade and financial flows of the country with other countries, in the third quarter fell to $ 100.57 billion, the Commerce Ministry reported. Economists were expecting a deficit of $ 116.8 billion.

Housing construction in the US unexpectedly rose in November, while the construction of single-family houses increased to a 10-year high, but changes in data for the previous month showed that the sector continues to struggle with supply constraints. The laying of new homes increased by 3.3% to a seasonally adjusted level of 1.277 million units, the Commerce Ministry said. This was the highest level since October 2016. But the pace of sales in October was revised to 1.256 million units compared to the previously registered 1,290 million units.

Oil prices have risen moderately, supported by a simple oil pipeline in the North Sea, a reduction in supplies led by OPEC, and expectations that US crude inventories fell for the fifth week in a row. However, expectations of an increase in oil production in the United States put pressure on quotes.

Most components of the DOW index finished trading in the red (18 out of 30). Outsider were the shares of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS, -1.39%). The leader of growth was shares of Intel Corporation (INTC, + 1.82%).

All sectors of the S & P index recorded a decline. The largest drop was shown by the utilities sector (-1.5%).

At closing:

DJIA -0.15% 24.754.75 -37.45

Nasdaq -0.44% 6,963.85 -30.91

S & P -0.32% 2,681.47 -8.69

U.S. stock-index futures were flat on Monday as investors awaited the vote on GOP's tax reform bill in the U.S. Congress.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 22,868.00 -33.77 -0.15%

Hang Seng 29,253.66 +203.25 +0.70%

Shanghai 3,296.68 +28.76 +0.88%

S&P/ASX 6,071.80 +32.90 +0.54%

FTSE 7,551.72 +14.71 +0.20%

CAC 5,416.97 -3.61 -0.07%

DAX 13,295.02 -17.28 -0.13%

Crude $57.60 (+0.77%)

Gold $1,266.10 (+0.05%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Apple (AAPL) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Nomura; target lowered to $175 from $185

Wal-Mart (WMT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup; target raised to $117 from $106

General Motors (GM) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts

Altria (MO) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Berenberg

The U.S. current-account deficit decreased to $100.6 billion (preliminary) in the third quarter of 2017 from $124.4 billion (revised) in the second quarter of 2017, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit decreased to 2.1 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) from 2.6 percent in the second quarter.

The $23.8 billion decrease in the current-account deficit reflected decreases in the deficits on secondary income and goods and increases in the surpluses on primary income and services.

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,298,000. This is 1.4 percent below the revised October rate of 1,316,000, but is 3.4 percent above the November 2016 rate of 1,255,000. Single-family authorizations in November were at a rate of 862,000; this is 1.4 percent above the revised October figure of 850,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 395,000 in November.

Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,297,000. This is 3.3 percent above the revised October estimate of 1,256,000 and is 12.9 percent above the November 2016 rate of 1,149,000. Single-family housing starts in November were at a rate of 930,000; this is 5.3 percent above the revised October figure of 883,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 359,000.

• There is no regulatory safeguard for investments in cryptocurrencies, MAS does not regulate cryptocurrencies

• I am pretty confident we will see price growth

On 4-hour time frame chart we can see that the price is stuck in a consolidation zone.

However, we can see that the price is forming a upside trend line which can be interesting to see.

Sentiment among German businesses is excellent ahead of Christmas, but no longer quite as euphoric as last month. The ifo Business Climate Index edged downwards to 117.2 points in December from 117.6 (Seasonally adjusted) points in November. This was due to less optimistic business expectations. Assessments of the current business situation, by contrast, were more positive this month. German businesses are full of festive spirits.

EUR/USD: 1.1730(336 m), 1.1775(861 m), 1.1825(386 m)

GBP/USD: 1.3450-52(771 m), 1.3500(723 m), 1.3530(370 m)

USD/JPY: 110.87-90(392 m), 111.10-15(520 m), 111.45(350 m), 112.50(866 m), 112.75(325 m), 113.25(335 m), 113.46-50(921 m), 114.00-03(673 m), 115.00(506 m)

USD/CHF: 0.9650(300 m), 0.9750(300 m)

AUD/USD: 0.7550(231 m)

USD/CAD: 1.2750(786 m)

EUR/JPY: 129.05(360 m)

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1938 (3827)

$1.1894 (4682)

$1.1870 (208)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1804

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1774 (5017)

$1.1736 (3630)

$1.1692 (4057)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date January, 5 is 93926 contracts (according to data from December, 18) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2200 (5574);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3517 (2651)

$1.3477 (1349)

$1.3452 (864)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3396

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3347 (2279)

$1.3314 (1861)

$1.3276 (2648)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 5 is 31256 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (4126);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 5 is 31864 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3300 (2648);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.02 versus 1.02 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 18

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• To reduce issue of 40-year jgbs in fiscal 2018/19 for first time ever, down 0.6 trln yen from this fy

• To increase amount of auctions for enhanced liquidity by 1.8 trln yen in fy 2018/19 from this fy

• To sell 134.2 trln yen of jgbs through auction in fiscal 2018/19, down 7.0 trln yen vs this fy's initial plan

• Headline business confidence was little changed from last month's low levels, but there was a mildly encouraging bounce in the own activity measure.

• Credit headwinds appear to be easing but most activity indicators remain at subdued levels.

• Pricing indicators were fairly stable.

Headline business confidence remains low. A net 38% of businesses are pessimistic about the year ahead, versus 39% in November. Headline business confidence remains negative across all the five sub-sectors. However, firms' views on their own activity, which has the stronger correlation to GDP growth, lifted from +7 to +16. The historical average is 28.

• U.S. security strategy included building southern border wall

• Planned attack on St. Petersburg could have killed "perhaps thousands

• U.S. must see Pakistan take decisive action against terrorism, "they have to help"

• Board judged steady policy consistent with inflation, growth goals

• Risks in household balance sheet had lessened, but still bore careful watching

• Outlook for household consumption a "significant risk" given slow income growth, high debt

• Uncertain on how far and when stronger growth would feed through to wages and inflation

• Wage growth slower than expected in q3, but appeared to have stabilised

• Board noted AUD still in range held over past two-and-a-half years

• Any further rise in AUD would slow expected pick-up in inflation, economy

While only moderate GDP growth of 1.0% is anticipated in 2017 due to a weak first half of the year, the forecast for GDP growth in 2018 is strong at 2.3% in the course of the global economic upturn. A solid 1.9% growth is predicted for 2019. Both foreign trade and the domestic economy are contributory factors in this regard. Employment is likely to increase noticeably, with unemployment set to drop again.

European stocks rose for the first time in four session on Monday, with banks leading the charge north on hopes the highly anticipated tax reform in the U.S. will get passed this week and provide a boon for the financial sector.

U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday, with major indexes ending at records on growing confidence congressional Republicans will succeed in passing tax-cut legislation as early as this week. The day's gains were broad, with eight of the 11 primary S&P 500 sectors ending higher on the day. Financials, which are seen as the biggest beneficiaries of the tax legislation, were among the biggest gainers of the day, up 0.7%. Separately, energy shares rose 0.8% while material stocks were up 1.5%.

Most Asia-Pacific stocks traded higher Tuesday as changes to the U.S. tax code inched closer to completion, helping send Australia's benchmark to 10-year highs. Indexes in Japan and South Korea, meanwhile, steadied after giving up early gains.