CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 22-11-2018

In November 2018, the DG ECFIN flash estimate of the consumer confidence indicator decreased markedly in the euro area (1.2 points down) and the EU (1.0 points down). At −3.9 points (euro area) and −3.7 points (EU), both indicators remain well above their respective long-term averages of −12.0 (euro area) and −11.1 (EU).

Canadian corporations earned $107.5 billion in operating profit in the third quarter, up $4.0 billion or 3.9% from the second quarter and 5.6% higher than the third quarter of 2017.

In the non-financial industries, operating profit rose $0.7 billion (+1.0%) from the second quarter to $69.9 billion in the third quarter, as operating revenue increased by $7.0 billion (+0.7%). Overall, operating profit was up in 11 of 17 non-financial industries.

Compared with the third quarter of 2017, operating profit for Canadian non-financial corporations increased 7.5%

The agreement, announced by European Council President Donald Tusk on Thursday, represents a further step toward an orderly departure from the bloc for the U.K.

It comes about a week after the EU and U.K. reached a so-called withdrawal agreement, a legally binding document that spells out critical terms for Britain's planned exit from the bloc next March.

• Eurostat’s flash estimate, annual HICP inflation had stood at 2.1% in September 2018, up from 2.0% in August, while HICP inflation excluding energy and food had remained stable at 0.9%. Overall, recent data were slightly higher than expected for headline inflation and wage growth, and slightly lower for services inflation. Meanwhile, measures of underlying inflation had moved sideways. Higher wage growth, as well as a recovery in producer and import prices, was expected to continue to support the upward adjustment in underlying inflation.

• The results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the fourth quarter of 2018 had shown average inflation expectations of 1.7% for 2018 and 2019, unchanged from the previous quarter

• No Final Date Can Be Agreed Without Approval Of EU Council On Sunday

• GBP/USd rose 140+ pips so far on the news

• The Commission President has informed me that it has been agreed at negotiators’ level and agreed in principle at political level, subject to the endorsement of the Leaders

China's Commerce Ministry criticized an updated U.S. report on Beijing's trade practices that says the country has coerced American companies to hand over leading-edge technology.

The report disregards facts and is "totally unacceptable," said spokesman Gao Feng at a routine briefing Thursday.

• With few new drivers and the U.S. closed for the Thanksgiving break, markets may struggle for new catalysts with expected low volumes on Thursday

• No need to take additional measures

• Bank of Japan must patiently maintain an ongoing stimulus program

• It will be necessary to reduce the balance after prices rise

• The slowdown in the purchase of bonds by the Bank of Japan differs from the narrowing of the Fed

• It is imperative to persevere with current monetary policy

A negative start of trading on the stock markets of Europe is expected. With US markets closed today, European investors will have very little opportunity to advance, especially after the Wall Street indices closed yesterday near flat levels. This shows that the mood is not too optimistic and remains fragile.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 446.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% above the five year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels last week and are about 6% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.1 million barrels last week and are about 7% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 2.0 million barrels last week and are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased last week by 0.2 million barrels last week.

The biggest changes were in arrivals from: Australia (up 9,900) United States (up 3,100) Korea (down 2,200) China (down 1,600). Overseas trips by New Zealand residents were 262,800, down 1,000. The biggest changes were in departures to: Fiji (down 3,400) Indonesia (up 2,200) Australia (down 1,400). Permanent and long-term (PLT) arrivals were 10,900, down 900 from October 2017. PLT departures were 4,200, up 100. Seasonally adjusted figures showed a net gain of 4,700 migrants in October 2018.

• The 10-year Treasury note yield rose 1.1 basis points to 3.061%. The 2-year note yield was up 1.7 basis points to 2.814%. The 30-year bond yield ticked higher to 3.311%. Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields

• UK PM Reiterated Commitment To Agreeing Deal That Works For Whole UK Including Gibraltar, UK Overseas Territories, Crown Dependencies - PM May's Office

Overall Overall nationwide consumer prices in Japan were up 1.4 percent on year in October, according to rttnews.

That was in line with expectations and up from 1.2 percent in September.

Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile food prices, advanced an annual 1.0 percent. That was in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month.

The biggest gains were fuel (4.4 percent), communications (1.9 percent) and culture (1.4 percent).

On a monthly basis, both overall and core inflation picked up 0.2 percent.

• Italy's Di Maio opposes cuts in resources for reforms sees possible budget modifications in parliament

• Di Maio sees possible budget modifications in parliment

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1476 (2274)

$1.1456 (2522)

$1.1442 (920)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1404

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1377 (4444)

$1.1359 (3467)

$1.1335 (5348)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 7 is 124595 contracts (according to data from November, 21) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (5853);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2910 (638)

$1.2891 (516)

$1.2862 (273)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2789

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2746 (2505)

$1.2731 (2505)

$1.2712 (2836)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 7 is 55959 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (4777);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 7 is 48089 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (4415);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.86 versus 0.83 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 21

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.