CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 23-03-2018

Major U.S. stock-indexes were mixed on Friday. The S&P 500 and the Dow edged up, helped by gains in NIKE (NKE), which climbed 3% on better-than-expected quarterly results and upbeat outlook for its North America business. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq fell, weighed down by losses in the technology sector. Investors also assessed the implications of a potential trade war between the United States and China, and the U.S. reports on durable goods orders and new home sales for February.

Most of Dow stocks in negative area (19 of 30). Top loser - DowDuPont Inc. (DPDP, -3.17%). Top gainer - NIKE, Inc. (NKE, +2.90%).

Most of S&P sectors in positive area. Top gainer - Basic Materials (+0.7%). Top loser - Financials (-0.7%).

At the moment:

• May 1 deadline for tariff exemption talks is not very realistic

U.S. stock-index futures were flat on Friday, after a sharp drop in the previous session on increased concerns over a trade war between China and the United States.

Global Stocks:

General merchandise stores were the largest contributors to the increase.

Sales were up in 7 of 11 subsectors, representing 63% of retail trade. Excluding sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales increased 0.9%.

After removing the effects of price changes, retail sales in volume terms rose 0.1% in January.

Sales at general merchandise stores were up 2.3% in January, following a decline in December.

Electronics and appliance (+4.0%), clothing and clothing accessories (+2.1%) and furniture and home furnishings (+3.4%) stores also contributed to the increase in January, following declines in all three subsectors in December.

Sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers were down 1.2%, largely due to lower sales in British Columbia and Quebec. Results were mixed among store types, as sales at new car dealers (-1.6%) and used car dealers (-3.0%) fell, while sales at other motor vehicle dealers (+1.7%) and automotive parts, accessories and tire stores (+3.2%) increased.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.2% on a year-over-year basis in February, following a 1.7% increase in January.

All eight major components increased year over year in February.

Energy costs were 5.3% higher compared with February 2017, after increasing 2.4% year over year in January. Year-over-year gains in gasoline (+12.6%) and natural gas (+0.8%) were larger in February than in January.

Prices for durable goods were up 0.6%, led by the purchase of passenger vehicles index (+2.5%), mainly due to lower rebates on 2018 model-year vehicles.

Higher prices for services also contributed to the increase in the CPI. In February, consumers paid more on a year-over-year basis for travel tours (+2.2%) and Internet access services (+5.2%). The mortgage interest cost index rose 2.3%, reflecting, in part, recent interest rate increases. These gains in service prices were moderated by lower traveller accommodation (-4.8%) costs.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in February increased $7.4 billion or 3.1 percent to $247.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up three of the last four months, followed a 3.5 percent January decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 2.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also up three of the last four months, led the increase, $5.5 billion or 7.1 percent to $83.5 billion.

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in February, up nine of the last ten months, increased $2.2 billion or 0.9 percent to $249.7 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent January increase. Machinery, up six of the last seven months, led the increase, $0.6 billion or 1.8 percent to $33.4 billion.

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

NIKE (NKE) target raised to $68 from $63 at B. Riley FBR

NIKE (NKE) target raised to $68 from $65 at Pivotal Research

Cisco Systems (CSCO) added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman

• In this environment the bank of Russia will continue to reduce the key rate and will complete the transition to neutral monetary policy in 2018

• The bank of Russia will also monitor risks posed by external factors, considering the episodes of increased volatility in the global markets

• Slowdown of annual inflation may continue in the first half of 2018

• The bank of Russia will pay particular attention to the situation in the labour market

• Economic growth resumed in early 2018, following the decline due to temporary headwinds in late 2017

• Broader U.S. tariffs could have sizeable impact on China's economy, would have knock-on effects for supply chain across rest of Asia

• China's measured response so far & U.S. indications of openness to negotiation suggest trade war should still be avoided

• Bigger risk is that the U.S. eventually imposes across-the-board tariffs on China

NIKE (NKE) reported Q3 FY 2018 earnings of $0.68 per share (versus $0.68 in Q3 FY 2017), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $0.53.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $8.984 bln (+1.5% y/y), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $8.853 bln.

The company also announced it had acquired consumer data analytics firm Zodiac to help accelerate Consumer Direct Offense strategy to serve consumers faster and more personally at scale. It did not disclose the financial terms of the deal.

NKE rose to $67.25 (+4.39%) in pre-market trading.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2459 (4399)

$1.2418 (2431)

$1.2388 (843)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2339

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2301 (3222)

$1.2268 (5246)

$1.2230 (3934)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date April, 6 is 105939 contracts (according to data from March, 22) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2150 (6624);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4265 (2792)

$1.4217 (2149)

$1.4189 (2503)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.4109

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.4044 (758)

$1.4010 (892)

$1.3972 (1310)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date April, 6 is 31021 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4200 (2792);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date April, 6 is 30162 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3800 (3595);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.97 versus 0.96 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 22

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Fx stability is important

• Think U.S trade measures likely affecting forex

• Extremely regrettable if U.S tariffs on steel apply to Japan