CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 23-04-2018

Major US stock indexes finished trading mostly in the red, being under pressure from falling shares of the technology sector and the industrial goods sector.

The pressure on the market also worried about the increase in the yield of Treasury bonds. The yield of 10-year US bonds - the benchmark of the cost of loans - today reached 2.9980%, which is the highest since January 2014. The rate of the five-year inflation swap - the key indicator of long-term inflation in the US - has reached its highest level in 3.5 years.

In addition, investors analyzed the statistics on the United States. As it became known, home sales in the secondary market grew strongly in March amid a resurgence of activity in the Northeast and Midwest, but the shortage of houses on the market and higher prices remain constraining factors as the spring sales season begins. The National Association of Realtors said that home sales in the secondary market increased seasonally by 1.1% to 560 million units. The pace of sales in February was not revised. This was the second consecutive monthly increase in home sales in the secondary market, which accounts for about 90% of sales in the US. Sales of housing in the secondary market in March fell by 1.2% year on year.

Most components of the DOW index recorded a rise (18 out of 30). Leader of the growth were shares of Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK, + 2.24%). Outsider were the shares of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS, -1.95%).

Almost all sectors of S & P finished trading in the red. The greatest decrease was shown by the technological sector (-0.3%). The conglomerate sector grew most (+ 0.3%).

At closing:

Dow 24,448.89 -14.05 -0.06%

S&P 500 2,670.28 +0.14 +0.01%

Nasdaq 100 7,128.60 -17.53 -0.25%

Existing-home sales grew for the second consecutive month in March, but lagging inventory levels and affordability constraints kept sales activity below year ago levels, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Total existing-home sales which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 1.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.60 million in March from 5.54 million in February. Despite last month's increase, sales are still 1.2 percent below a year ago.

April survey data signalled a further strong increase in private sector output across the U.S, alongside steep growth in new orders and intensifying price pressures. At 54.8 in April, up from 54.2 in March, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index indicated a faster upturn in business activity across the private sector, driven by accelerated growth at both manufacturing and service sector firms. While the former recorded the steeper rate of expansion, both sectors enjoyed solid rates of growth.

• ECB says considering whether further policies on NPL stock still needed, depends on progress of banks

U.S. stock-index futures rose moderately on Monday, as market participants hoped that a slew of good quarterly statements from heavy-hitters, set to be released this week, could attract investors to the stock market.

Global Stocks:

Wholesale sales declined 0.8% to $62.8 billion in February, the largest downward movement and the second monthly drop since September 2017. Lower sales were recorded in four of seven subsectors, representing 64% of total wholesale sales. The miscellaneous and the motor vehicle and parts subsectors contributed the most to the decline.

In volume terms, wholesale sales decreased 0.9% from January to February.

The miscellaneous subsector reported the largest decline in dollar terms in February, declining 3.7% to $7.7 billion. This was the second decrease in three months, bringing the subsector to its lowest level since December 2016. The agricultural supplies industry recorded the only decline within the miscellaneous subsector, down 16.8% to $1.8 billion. The decrease in February saw the industry fall to its lowest level since November 2014.

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Caterpillar (CAT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup

Merck (MRK) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; added to Conviction Buy List

Exxon Mobil (XOM) upgraded to Mkt Perform from Underperform at Raymond James

Verizon (VZ) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays

April 23

After the Close:

Alphabet (GOOG). Consensus EPS $9.28, Consensus Revenues $30282.59 mln.

Barrick Gold (ABX). Consensus EPS $0.14, Consensus Revenues $1805.37 mln.

April 24

Before the Open:

3M (MMM). Consensus EPS $2.48, Consensus Revenues $8213.08 mln.

Caterpillar (CAT). Consensus EPS $2.10, Consensus Revenues $11988.92 mln.

Coca-Cola (KO). Consensus EPS $0.46, Consensus Revenues $7317.68 mln.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX). Consensus EPS $0.56, Consensus Revenues $4923.24 mln.

Travelers (TRV). Consensus EPS $2.69, Consensus Revenues $6592.18 mln.

United Tech (UTX). Consensus EPS $1.51, Consensus Revenues $14623.18 mln.

Verizon (VZ). Consensus EPS $1.11, Consensus Revenues $31250.51 mln.

April 25

Before the Open:

Boeing (BA). Consensus EPS $2.59, Consensus Revenues $22220.89 mln.

Twitter (TWTR). Consensus EPS $0.11, Consensus Revenues $606.63 mln.

Yandex N.V. (YNDX). Consensus EPS RUB11.75, Consensus Revenues RUB26193.40 mln.

After the Close:

AT&T (T). Consensus EPS $0.88, Consensus Revenues $39356.25 mln.

Facebook (FB). Consensus EPS $1.32, Consensus Revenues $11416.17 mln.

Ford Motor (F). Consensus EPS $0.41, Consensus Revenues $37057.00 mln.

Visa (V). Consensus EPS $1.01, Consensus Revenues $4820.43 mln.

April 26

Before the Open:

Altria (MO). Consensus EPS $0.91, Consensus Revenues $4627.03 mln.

General Motors (GM). Consensus EPS $1.28, Consensus Revenues $32888.12 mln.

Int'l Paper (IP). Consensus EPS $0.90, Consensus Revenues $5487.54 mln.

After the Close:

Amazon (AMZN). Consensus EPS $1.22, Consensus Revenues $49920.77 mln.

Intel (INTC). Consensus EPS $0.72, Consensus Revenues $15062.89 mln.

Microsoft (MSFT). Consensus EPS $0.85, Consensus Revenues $25784.07 mln.

Starbucks (SBUX). Consensus EPS $0.53, Consensus Revenues $5935.27 mln.

April 27

Before the Open:

Chevron (CVX). Consensus EPS $1.51, Consensus Revenues $39013.65 mln.

Exxon Mobil (XOM). Consensus EPS $1.12, Consensus Revenues $68242.10 mln.

Eurozone business activity continued to rise at a solid pace in April, though the rate of expansion remained considerably weaker than seen earlier in the year amid signs of weaker growth of demand and supply constraints. Slower inflows of new orders, alongside weakened optimism about the business outlook, suggests that growth could slow further in May. Price pressures meanwhile eased during the month from recent elevated levels.

The IHS Markit Eurozone PMI held steady at 55.2 in April, according to flash survey data based on approximately 80% of final responses. The unchanged reading indicated the joint-weakest expansion of business output since the start of 2017, but remained well above the average of 53.8 seen over the past five years.

Germany's private sector economy grew solidly at the start of the second quarter. The pace of expansion stabilised after having slipped to eightmonth low in March, according to the latest PMI survey data from IHS Markit. The rate of job creation picked up to its highest for three months; however, there was less optimism among businesses towards the outlook for activity in the year ahead amid a further slowdown in new order growth.

The IHS Markit Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI meanwhile registered a reading of 58.1 in April. Although little-changed from March's 58.2 and pointing to another strong monthly improvement in overall manufacturing sector performance, this was the lowest reading since July 2017.

At 56.9, up from 56.3 in March, the IHS Markit Flash France Composite Output Index continued to signal an above-trend rate of expansion. The acceleration in overall growth was indicative of sharper rates of expansion in both the manufacturing and services sectors. The rate of increase in the latter continued to outstrip the former, but both remained marked and above their respective long-run averages nonetheless.

• Says significant trade war would have very negative economic effects

• Too early to say if there is a serious risk of trade war

• Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI rises in April to 53.3, from 53.1 in March.

• Output, new orders and employment increase at quickened rates.

• Output price inflation remains marked relative to historical data.

Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, said: "Survey data depicted a positive backdrop in the Japanese manufacturing sector during April. The improvement in the headline PMI was underpinned by stronger rates of growth in output, new orders and employment. Furthermore, business confidence strengthened, while output prices were hiked to a stronger degree, signalling optimism in demand conditions. "Although new export orders declined for the first time since August 2016, as the stronger yen begins to impact price competitiveness, the rise in total new business inflows signals stronger domestic demand."

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2405 (2498)

$1.2363 (199)

$1.2339 (216)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2270

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2252 (3987)

$1.2220 (4183)

$1.2181 (3738)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date May, 4 is 77783 contracts (according to data from April, 20) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2650 (4256);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4197 (1520)

$1.4139 (928)

$1.4100 (883)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.4014

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3938 (1668)

$1.3905 (1176)

$1.3868 (2167)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 4 is 22605 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4400 (3367);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 4 is 25095 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3850 (2357);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.11 versus 1.16 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 20

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.