CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 23-08-2012

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23.08.2012

19:00

Dow 13,064.44 -108.32 -0.82% Nasdaq 3,058.43 -15.24 -0.50% S&P 500 1,403.73 -9.76 -0.69%

18:15

American focus: the euro continues to hold the position

The dollar fell to its lowest level in seven weeks against the euro after data showed that the number of unemployment benefits rose last week, increasing the likelihood of another round of Fed quantitative easing.

According to a report published by the Ministry of Labor, the number of calls has increased to 372,000 people, compared with a revised figure of last week, on a level with 368,000.

The dollar continued to decline even after a report showed that purchases of new homes in the U.S. rose by 3.6% to 372,000 units in annual terms.

Earlier U.S. dollar fell against most major traded currencies on expectations that China will also ease monetary policy to stimulate economic growth and increase the demand for higher-yielding assets.

The pound fell after the published data showed that the number of approved applications for mortgage loans as BBA

unexpectedly rose in July.

The Australian dollar fell against 13 of its 16 major counterparts after the published data showed that China's manufacturing sector in August showed the fastest rates of decline over the last nine months, increasing the concern that the demand for commodity exports will decline.

The New Zealand dollar strengthened against all but one of the major currencies due to the appreciation of Asian stocks. Rates also rose to two-week high after the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Charles Evans said that the promotion of monetary policy is to support the growth of the world economy.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, fell today by 0.3% to 81.284, which is a minimum of 20 June.

17:30

European stocks close:

European stocks dropped for a second day as German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble damped optimism that Greece will get more time to cut its debt and as bond yields climbed in Spain.

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) slid 1.8 percent as lenders retreated across Europe. Royal Ahold NV lost 3.6 percent after the retailer reported earnings that missed some analysts’ estimates. Petropavlovsk Plc (POG) tumbled 16 percent to 394 pence, its biggest slide since 2008, after reporting a 90 percent drop in first- half net income to $11 million as interest payments and depreciation costs dragged down earnings.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) retreated 0.6 percent to 267.69 at the close.

Stocks fell as Germany’s Schaeuble said that allowing Greece more time to meet its debt obligations would not solve the country’s problems and would increase costs for creditors.

National benchmark indexes declined in 15 out of 18 western-European markets.

FTSE 100 +2.40 +0.04% CAC 40 3,432.56 -29.09 -0.84% DAX 6,949.57 -68.18 -0.97%

BBVA retreated 1.8 percent to 5.71 euros. Bankia SA (BKIA) tumbled 2.1 percent to 1.33 euros.

Ahold fell 3.6 percent to 10.07 euros after the Dutch owner of Stop & Shop grocery stores reported second-quarter earnings before interest and taxes of 326 million euros ($410 million), 4.7 percent below Oddo & Cie’s estimate of 342 million euros.

European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co., the parent company of Airbus SAS, lost 2.4 percent to 29.92 euros after Qantas Airways Ltd. (QAN) canceled an order for rival Boeing Co.

Anglo American Plc (AAL) climbed 1.7 percent to 1,941.5 pence after the company reached an agreement with Codelco.

Antofagasta Plc (ANTO) climbed with copper, rising 2.9 percent to 1,152 pence.

Xstrata Plc (XTA) increased 1.1 percent to 926.6 pence and Vedanta Resources Plc (VED) gained 1 percent to 940.5 pence.

Heineken NV (HEIA) advanced 1.8 percent to 44.79 euros after Bank of America Corp. upgraded the Dutch brewer to buy from neutral.

16:10

European stocks close in minus: FTSE 100 +2.40 +0.04% CAC 40 3,432.56 -29.09 -0.84% DAX 6,949.57 -68.18 -0.97%

15:50

The cost of oil is growing against the possible incentive

Expectations of further stimulus from the Federal Reserve and the Central Bank of China, caused a rise in oil prices and other risky assets, which manifested itself in the second half of the day.

At the beginning of the session, data showed China's manufacturing sector in August showed the fastest rates of decline over the last nine months. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell in August to a level 47.8 from 49.3 in July, largely due to lower production orders. Against this background, there was a possibility that the Chinese government may soon resort to stimulate economic growth.

At the same time, the reports submitted by the Fed showed the next phase of quantitative easing could begin quite soon, unless there is a significant improvement in the U.S. economy. However, members of the FOMC did not specify what incentives they are willing to use to help recovery. It has been speculated that the Fed could launch the third round of quantitative easing - known as QE3 - at the next meeting to be held in mid-September. However, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard said today that the Fed's minutes a bit "out of date".

Recall that in the next week the Federal Reserve will hold a symposium in Jackson Hole, where Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke may give a clue as to the new round of QE.

October futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) on the NYMEX is now $ 97.69 per barrel.

October futures price of North Sea Brent crude oil mix is now $ 116.09 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

15:30

Gold prices continue to rise

Gold continued its winning streak, which has lasted for the seventh consecutive day, as the minutes of the Fed unexpectedly gave a signal that the central bank may take additional steps to stimulate the economy.

Recall that the price of gold has more than doubled, after the first time the Fed has resorted to quantitative easing in late 2008.

Minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee showed that the central bank is likely to begin another round of stimulus fairly soon.

According to analysts, while the prospect of additional stimulus may have a positive impact on the value of gold in the short term, the key indicators, such as consumer spending, the level of production or employment, have grown since the last Fed meeting, indicating the stabilization of economic growth and, Thus, the increase in gold prices may be limited.

Gold futures rose today after data showed that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, suggesting that the recovery in the labor market is too slow to cause a decline in the unemployment rate.

Despite the high degree of uncertainty among investors in recent weeks, demand for gold has not diminished.

Reserves of gold in exchange-traded funds reached a record 71.24 million ounces, up more than 600,000 ounces this week, showing at the same time the largest weekly increase since the beginning of February.

The cost of the August gold futures on the COMEX is now 1671.7 dollars per ounce.

14:00

U.S.: Housing Price Index, m/m, June 0.7% (forecast +0.6%)

14:00

Eurozone: Consumer Confidence, August -25 (forecast -22.0)

14:00

U.S.: New Home Sales, July 372 (forecast 362)

13:45

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.2550, $1.2500, $1.2425, $1.2400

USD/JPY Y78.50, Y79.00, Y79.30, Y79.40, Y79.50

USD/CHF Chf0.9600, Chf0.9500

AUD/USD $1.0450, $1.0500, $1.0515, $1.0550

NZD/USD $0.8165, $0.8170

13:30

FTSE 100 5,781.09 +6.89 +0.12% CAC 40 3,432.06 -29.59 -0.85% DAX 6,969.83 -47.92 -0.68%

13:24

Before the bell: S&P futures -0.30%, Nasdaq futures -0.20%

U.S. stock futures fell amid speculation whether central banks in the U.S. and China will ease monetary policy further and European leaders will be able to solve the region’s debt crisis.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 9,178.12 +46.38 +0.51%
Hang Seng 20,132.24 +244.46 +1.23%
Shanghai Composite 2,113.07 +5.36 +0.25%
FTSE 5,778.37 +4.17 +0.07%
CAC 3,428.41 -33.24 -0.96%
DAX 6,964.67 -53.08 -0.76%
Crude oil $96.40 -0,45%
Gold $1641.60 +0.08%

13:00

U.S.: Manufacturing PMI, August 51.9 (forecast 51.3)

12:52

Upgrades and downgrades of Dow Jones Industrial components before the market open:

Caterpillar (CAT) was initiated with Outperform at Credit Agricole.

12:30

U.S.: Initial Jobless Claims, 372 (forecast 365)

12:15

European session: the euro continues to strengthen

Data

02:30 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI(preliminary) August 49.3 47.8

06:00 Switzerland Trade Balance July 2.25 2.10 2.91

06:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (finally) Quarter II +0.5% +0.3% +0.5%

06:00 Germany GDP (wda) (YoY) (finally) Quarter II +1.2% +0.5% +1.0%

07:00 France Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) August 43.4 43.8 46.1

07:00 France Services PMI (preliminary) August 50.0 50.1 50.2

07:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) August 43.0 43.6 45.1

07:30 Germany Services PMI (preliminary) August 50.3 50.2 48.3

08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) August 44.0 44.3 45.3

08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (preliminary) August 47.9 47.9 47.5

08:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals July 26.3 28.2 28.4

10:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance August 11 16 -3

The euro rose to a seven-week high against the dollar, with increased expectations that the U.S. and China ease monetary policy to stimulate economic growth, which will increase the demand for higher-yielding assets.
The U.S. currency fell after the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee showed many politicians in favor of additional measures to support the economy. The third round of asset purchases will provide confidence in the markets, which must be sufficiently adaptive for quite some time.
The pound fell after the published data showed that the number of approved applications for mortgage loans as BBA unexpectedly rose in July.
The New Zealand dollar strengthened against all but one of the major currencies due to the appreciation of Asian stocks. Rates also rose to two-week high after the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Charles Evans said that the promotion of monetary policy is to support the growth of the world economy.
The representative of the People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said yesterday that the adjustment of interest rates and banks' reserve requirements still possible, after the central bank stepped up temporary cash infusions this month.
The Australian dollar strengthened after a report showed that China's manufacturing sector in August showed the fastest rates of decline over the last nine months, increasing the concern that the demand for commodity exports will decline.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, fell today by 0.3% to 81.284, which is a minimum of 20 June.

EUR/USD: in the course of trade, the pair grew up, setting all-time high at $ 1.2573, then dropped slightly and is now trading at a value of $ 1.2550
GBP/USD: a pair of sharply peaked at $ 1.5910, then dropped to and now stands at $ 1.5865
USD/JPY: the course in mid-session trading in a narrow range after yesterday's substantial reduction

The main U.S. data will be: traditional statistics on applications for unemployment benefits (12:30 GMT) and the data on the volume of sales in the primary market (14:00 GMT), which will be released simultaneously with the index of house prices.
Later statistics attract attention on the trade balance of New Zealand (22:45 GMT) and the speech of the RBA (23:30 GMT).
Day complete data on the price index for services among Japanese corporations (23:50 GMT).

11:30

Orders

EUR/JPY

Offers Y99.80, Y99.50, Y99.20, Y99.00

Bids Y98.20, Y98.00, Y97.75/70, Y97.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y79.20, Y79.00, Y78.80

Bids Y78.20, Y78.10/00, Y77.90, Y77.65

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2650, $1.2600

Bids $1.2525/20, $1.2500, $1.2470-50, $1.2430

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0600, $1.0545/50, $1.0525/30

Bids $1.0460, $1.0450, $1.0435/30, $1.0420, $1.0400

10:16

European stock indices rising

As the Asian indices, European markets encourage speculation on expectations that central banks of China and the U.S. will soon again to expand business activity stimulation.

Also had a positive impact on the European markets of Germany's GDP for the II quarter annualized. Growth was +1.0%, forecast +0.5%. The rest of the macroeconomic data released today were mixed. Was higher than expected index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Germany in August (the forecast 45.1 43.6) and the index of business activity in the services sector (50.2 at the forecast 50.1), and the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in France in August (the forecast 46.1 43.8).

To date:

FTSE 100 5,802.01 +27.81 +0.48%

CAC 40 3,473.79 +12.14 +0.35%

DAX 7,038.29 +20.54 +0.29%

Shares of Royal Ahold NV fell 2.5% after the company reported worse than analysts had forecast. Anglo American Plc added 0.9% to its capitalization after received an application for termination of disputes over mines in Chile.

10:00

United Kingdom: CBI retail sales volume balance, August -3 (forecast 16)

09:31

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.2550, $1.2500, $1.2425, $1.2400

USD/JPY Y78.50, Y79.00, Y79.30, Y79.40, Y79.50

USD/CHF Chf0.9600, Chf0.9500

AUD/USD $1.0450, $1.0500, $1.0515, $1.0550

NZD/USD $0.8165, $0.8170

09:00

Asia Pacific stocks close:

Asian stocks advanced, with the region’s benchmark index set for its highest close since May, on speculation central banks in the U.S. and China will ease monetary policy amid signs growth is slowing.

Nikkei 225 9,178.12 +46.38 +0.51%
S&P/ASX 200 4,383.7 +7.66 +0.17%
Shanghai Composite 2,113.12 +5.40 +0.26%
Jiangxi Copper Co., the mainland’s biggest producer of the metal, climbed 3.2 percent in Hong Kong after the People’s Bank of China left the door open to more interest-rate cuts. Sinopharm Group Co. jumped 7.1 percent after first-half profit rose 22 percent at the nation’s No. 1 pharmaceuticals distributor. QR National Ltd. added 2.3 percent after Australia’s largest coal-train operator beat profit estimates.

08:55

FTSE 100 5,801.52 +27.32 +0.47%, CAC 40 3,490.23 +28.58 +0.83%, DAX 7,069.69 +51.94 +0.74%

08:42

Asian session: The dollar slid versus most of its major peers

02:30 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) August 49.3 47.8

The dollar slid versus most of its major peers for a fourth day as Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans reiterated the case for more monetary easing that tends to debase the greenback.
The U.S. currency touched a seven-week low against the euro after minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s most recent meeting showed many policy makers favor additional measures to stimulate growth.
Demand for the euro was tempered before the release of European purchasing managers’ indexes for manufacturing and services. A composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in services and manufacturing in the euro area probably held at 46.5 this month, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before Markit Economics releases the data today. Manufacturing gauges in Germany and France may also show readings below 50, the dividing line between contraction and expansion, for a sixth month in August, according to separate polls.
The Australian dollar pared an earlier advance of as much as 0.4 percent against its U.S. counterpart after a preliminary reading showed a manufacturing PMI released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics was at 47.8 this month. The final figure for July was 49.3.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose by updating the monthly high.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose above $ 1.5900.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y78.50.

European data for Thursday starts at 0600GMT with Germandetailed GDP for the second quarter, which is expected to confirm a final reading of 0.3% q/q. This morning also sees the release of the flash manufacturing/services PMIs for August, including France, which is expected to see manufacturing at 43.7 and services at 50.0 and Germany (43.4/50.1). This leads up to the main EMU release at 0658GMT, which is expected to see manufacturing at 44.2 and services at 47.7 with the composite number at 46.5. At 1700GMT, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is due to welcome French President Francois Hollande, in Berlin. UK data at 0830GMT sees BBA Lending Data for July, while this isfollowed at 1000GMT with the CBI Monthly Distributive Trades data for August. US data starts at 1230GMT, when initial jobless claims are expected to fall 1,000 to 365,000 in August 18 employment survey week, downsharply from 388,000 in the July 14 employment survey week. US Markit PMI data is due at 1258GMT. US data then continues with the 1400GMT release of July New Home Sales and BLS Mass Layoffs as well as the June FHFA Home Price Index.

08:31

United Kingdom: BBA Mortgage Approvals, July 28.4 (forecast 28.2)

07:58

Eurozone: Services PMI, August 47.5 (forecast 47.9)

07:58

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI, August 45.3 (forecast 44.3)

07:39

Forex: Wednesday’s review

In first half of yesterday the euro rose to a six-week high against the dollar and the yen ahead of the meeting of regional leaders this week, which will meet to discuss their progress in the fight against the financial crisis.

The single currency continued its two-day rise after Germany reported a possible concessions to Greece. Also on the rise of the currency influenced successfully conducted auction of treasury bills in Spain. It is learned that Spain has placed T-bills in the amount of 4.515 billion euros against the planned 3.5-4.5 billion.

The pound fell against the euro as the UK unexpectedly announced that net borrowing state. Sector declined, while factory orders balance of the Confederation of British Industry has fallen to eight-month low in August, adding to signs that the UK economy is slowing down.