CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 25-08-2017

• 'Core' reforms have boosted financial resilience without limiting credit, growth

• Some reforms may be affecting market liquidity

• Open to reviewing Volcker rule, supplementary leverage ratio

• Cites private-sector signals that banks are safer

EUR/USD: 1.1600(946 млн), 1.1700(875 млн), 1.1750-55(409 млн)

GBP/USD: 1.3100(509 млн)

USD/JPY: 108.00(689 млн), 109.00(402 млн), 110.00(1.93 млрд)

AUD/USD: 0.7700(A$590 млн), 0.7795-0.7800(442 млн), 0.7955(269 млн), 0.8000(275 млн)

USD/CAD: 1.2500-15(687 млн)

EUR/JPY: 128.00(403 млн), 130.00(690 млн), 130.50(521 млн)

U.S. stock-index futures rose moderately on Friday following yesterday's modest decline. Investors awaited the speeches of the Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi at Jackson Hole Conference.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 19,452.61 +98.84 +0.51%

Hang Seng 27,848.16 +329.56 +1.20%

Shanghai 3,331.66 +60.15 +1.84%

S&P/ASX 5,743.86 -1.62 -0.03%

FTSE 7,431.68 +24.62 +0.33%

CAC 5,119.67 +6.54 +0.13%

DAX12,205.18 +24.35 +0.20%

Crude $47.64 (+0.44%)

Gold $1,291.50 (-0.04%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Twitter (TWTR) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies

Starbucks (SBUX) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush

New orders for manufactured durable goods in July decreased $16.7 billion or 6.8 percent to $229.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down three of the last four months, followed a 6.4 percent June increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 7.8 percent. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $17.4 billion or 19.0 percent to $74.3 billion.

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in July, up three consecutive months, increased $1.0 billion or 0.4 percent to $237.4 billion. This followed a virtually unchanged June increase. Transportation equipment, up two of the last three months, led the increase, $0.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $79.2 billion.

• Thinks some of the sums for Brexit bill seem to be very high

• Have to meet our legal obligations in EU talks on Brexit bill, but as we see those obligations

• US presidential visit to Britain more likely in 2018 than this year

The ifo Business Climate Index edged downwards from 116.0 points last month to 115.9 points in August. But sentiment among German businesses remains very strong. The decline was due to slightly less positive assessments of the current business situation. Companies' short-term business outlook, by contrast, improved. Germany's economy remains on track for growth.

In manufacturing the index once again broke last month's record. Companies were slightly less satisfied with their current business situation, which nevertheless remains strong. They expressed greater optimism about the short-term outlook. In the automotive sector cartel allegations and the diesel affair have not been reflected in the survey results to date, with the business climate index remaining at a very high level.

In wholesaling the business climate deteriorated slightly. This was due to markedly poorer assessments of the current business situation. Business expectations, by contrast, were adjusted slightly upwards. In retailing the index dropped significantly. Retailers were clearly less satisfied with their current business situation. Their optimism about the short-term business outlook also waned. Car dealers were largely responsible for the downswing.

EUR/USD: 1.1600(946 m), 1.1700(875 m), 1.1750-55(409 m)

GBP/USD: 1.3100(509 m)

USD/JPY: 108.00(689 m), 109.00(402 m), 110.00(1.93 b)

AUD/USD: 0.7700(A$590 m), 0.7795-0.7800(442 m), 0.7955(269 m), 0.8000(275 m)

USD/CAD: 1.2500-15(687 m)

EUR/JPY: 128.00(403 m), 130.00(690 m), 130.50(521 m)

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1890 (4205)

$1.1853 (2329)

$1.1833 (2024)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1796

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1752 (1321)

$1.1728 (2540)

$1.1699 (3219)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 128122 contracts (according to data from August, 24) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1600 (5162);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2936 (1521)

$1.2904 (689)

$1.2878 (709)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2804

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2757 (2618)

$1.2733 (2093)

$1.2703 (1847)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 8 is 35720 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3343);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 31295 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2850 (2618);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.88 versus 0.88 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 24

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the index of import prices fell by 1.9% in July 2017 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In June 2017 and in May 2017 the annual rates of change were +2.5% and +4.1%, respectively. From June 2017 to July 2017 the index fell by 0.4%.

The index of import prices, excluding crude oil and mineral oil products, increased by 1.7% compared with the level of a year earlier.

The index of export prices increased by 1.5% in July 2017 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In June 2017 and in May 2017 the annual rates of change were +1.8% and +2.2%, respectively. From June 2017 to July 2017 the export price index fell by 0.1%.

The German economy continues to grow. As the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) already reported in its first release 277/17 of 15 August 2017, the gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.6% (after price, seasonal and calendar adjustment) in the second quarter of 2017 compared with the previous quarter. Most recent calculations show that GDP growth in the first quarter of 2017 had been slightly larger (0.7%).

The quarter-on-quarter comparison following price, seasonal and calendar adjustment shows that, on the use side of the gross domestic product, positive contributions came from domestic demand. The final consumption expenditure of households rose considerably by 0.8% and government final consumption expenditure increased by 0.6% on the previous quarter. Capital formation, too, was again higher. Fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment increased by 1.2% and in construction by 0.9% on the first quarter of 2017. Overall, domestic uses increased markedly by one percent compared with the first three months of the year.

As regards foreign demand, there were mixed signals. According to provisional calculations, exports of goods and services were up 0.7% compared with the first quarter of 2017. However, imports increased more substantially (+1.7%) in the same period. Arithmetically, the balance of exports and imports thus had a downward effect of -0.3 percentage points on GDP growth.

Overall consumer prices in Japan advanced 0.4 percent on year in July, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, cited by rttnews - in line with expectations and unchanged from the June reading.

Core inflation, which excludes food prices, advanced an annual 0.5 percent - again unchanged and matching forecasts.

Individually, prices for fuel climbed 4.3 percent on year, while food prices gained 0.6 percent.

On a monthly basis, overall CPI and core CPI were both flat. Clothing prices fell 2.8 percent on month, and furniture prices dipped 0.4 percent.

Overall consumer prices for the Tokyo region - considered a leading indicator for the nationwide trend - climbed 0.5 percent on year in August. That exceeded expectations for 0.3 percent and was up from 0.1 percent in July.

Core CPI for Tokyo gained 0.4 percent, beating forecasts for 0.3 percent and up from 0.2 percent in the previous month.

Individually, fuel prices spiked 5.7 percent on year and medical care jumped 1.7 percent.

Japanese stocks rebounded as the yen pulled back after inflation ticked higher, though many global investors remain on the sidelines ahead of key comments at a central-banking conclave in the U.S. The Nikkei NIK, +0.63% ended the morning trading session up 0.4% after falling in 12 of the past 15 sessions. Earlier, it was up as much as 0.5%. The U.S. dollar moved back above ¥109.60 from around ¥109 when Tokyo stocks stopped trading Thursday.

U.S. stocks closed slightly lower Thursday, after a session of switching between small gains and losses, during a seasonally low-volume period prone to swings, as investors focused on a symposium of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyo. The market had received a brief boost in afternoon trade after House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., expressed confidence in passing a tax-overhaul package this year and raising the debt ceiling.

European stock markets notched small gains Thursday, with investors taking a cautious approach as the Jackson Hole summit that's been hanging over markets this week was finally about to kick off. The Stoxx Europe 600 index SXXP, +0.16% closed up 0.2% at 374.51, partly recouping a 0.5% loss from Wednesday.