CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 30-07-2018

The main US stock indices dropped noticeably, as disappointing forecasts from technological and Internet companies caused concern about the continued growth of the high-tech sector.

Investors also attracted some attention from the US. The National Association of Realtors reported that in June, as a whole, unfinished transactions for the sale of housing increased in all four major regions, but overall activity fell behind the level of the previous year for the sixth month in a row. The index of unfinished housing transactions (PHSI), the forecast figure based on the signing of contracts, rose by 0.9% to 106.9 in June from 105.9 in May.

However, data provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, showed that in July, the business activity of Texas producers moderately deteriorated, but it turned out to be higher than the experts' forecasts. According to the report, the Dallas Federal Reserve's production index in July fell to 32.3 points from 36.5 points in June. Analysts had expected the index to fall to 31.0 points.

Quotes of oil rose on Monday, helped by the weakening of the US dollar and the continued cautiousness of investors regarding the prospects for supply.

Most components DOW completed the auction mixed (15 in the black, 15 in the red). Leader of the growth were shares of Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK, + 2.14%). Outsider were shares of Visa Inc. (V, -2.90%).

Almost all S & P sectors recorded a decline. The biggest drop was shown by the technological sector (-1.6%). Only the commodity sector grew (+ 0.5%).

At closing:

Dow 25,306.83 -144.23 -0.57%

S&P 500 2,802.60 -16.22 -0.58%

Nasdaq 100 7,630.00 -107.42 -1.39%

Pending home sales increased in all four major regions in June, but overall activity lagged year ago levels for the sixth straight month, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The Pending Home Sales Index,, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 0.9 percent to 106.9 in June from 105.9 in May. Despite last month's increase, contract signings are still down 2.5 percent on an annual basis.

U.S. stock-index futures were flat on Monday, as investors remained cautious ahead of the policy meetings of the central banks in the U.S., Japan and the U.K later this week. Meanwhile, Caterpillar's (CAT) solid Q2 earnings report provided some support to the market.

Global Stocks:

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

IBM (IBM) resumed with a Market Perform at Wells Fargo

AT&T (T) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill

The inflation rate in Germany as measured by the consumer price index is expected to be 2.0% in July 2018. Based on the results available so far, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that the consumer prices are expected to increase by 0.3% on June 2018.

In July 2018, the harmonised index of consumer prices for Germany, which is calculated for European purposes, is expected to increase by 2.1% year on year and 0.4% on June 2018.

Caterpillar (CAT) reported Q2 FY 2018 earnings of $2.97 per share (versus $1.49 in Q2 FY 2017), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $2.74.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $14.011 bln (+23.7% y/y), generally in-line with analysts' consensus estimate of $14.085 bln.

The company also issued upside guidance for FY 2018, projecting EPS of $11.00-12.00 versus analysts' consensus estimate of $10.75 and its prior guidance of $10.25-11.25.

CAT rose to $146.90 (+3.04%) in pre-market trading.

• N Rhine Westphalia Jul CPI +0.3% MM; +2.0% YY

• Baden-Wuerttemberg Jul CPI +0.2% MM; +2.2% YY

• Brandenburg Jul CPI +0.4% On Mo, +2.2% On Year

• Hesse Jul CPI +0.4% On Mo; +1.8% On Year

July 30

Before the Open:

Caterpillar (CAT). Consensus EPS $2.74, Consensus Revenues $14085.13 mln.

July 31

Before the Open:

Arconic (ARNC). Consensus EPS $0.29, Consensus Revenues $3492.46 mln.

Pfizer (PFE). Consensus EPS $0.74, Consensus Revenues $13298.15 mln.

Procter & Gamble (PG). Consensus EPS $0.90, Consensus Revenues $16516.51 mln.

After the Close:

Apple (AAPL). Consensus EPS $2.18, Consensus Revenues $52430.11 mln.

August 1

After the Close:

Tesla (TSLA). Consensus EPS -$2.78, Consensus Revenues $3939.84 mln.

August 2

Before the Open:

DowDuPont (DWDP). Consensus EPS $1.30, Consensus Revenues $23614.14 mln.

After the Close:

American Intl (AIG). Consensus EPS $1.21, Consensus Revenues $11707.22 mln.

• The annual growth rates of consumer credit and mortgage lending were unchanged in June, at 8.8% and 3.2% respectively.

• Net finance raised by UK businesses was £2.6 billion in June, above its average over the past year; this followed strength in May. Net bank lending was the largest component of businesses' borrowing.

• The amount of money held by UK households increased by £3.7 billion in June, slightly above its recent average.

The estimated annual inflation in July 2018 is 2.2%, according to the advance indicator prepared by the INE. This indicator provides an advance of the CPI which, if confirmed, would imply decrease of one tenth in its annual rate, since in the month of June this variation was of 2.3%. In this behavior, the drop in the prices of food and beverages stands out. alcoholic For its part, the annual variation of the leading indicator of the HICP is placed in July in the 2.3%.

The KOF Economic Barometer only slightly moved in July. Compared to its June value, it decreased by 0.2 to 101.1 points. The current Barometer value still stands slightly above the long-term average of 100 points; it thus indicates a slightly above-average economic development in Switzerland in the coming months.

In July, the KOF Economic Barometer fell slightly to 101.1 points from 101.3 in June (101.7 in the initial publication in June). Negative indicators for manufacturing, the export industry and the accommodation and food service activities sector were mainly responsible for the slight decrease. Positive signals come from the banking and the construction sectors.

"I think that's way too high," the chief economic advisor at Allianz said." "If I looked only at the U.S., I would buy the 92 percent. But I think there are other things happening in the world."

El-Erian's probability of a rate hike was above 50 percent because of "headwinds from the rest of the world."

• Fed Looks for Goldilocks Path as Jobless Rate Drops

• Study Metro-Areas Data for Clues on Inflation When Unemployment Is Low

• September light, sweet crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange was recently up 0.3% at $68.89 a barrel in the Globex trading session. Brent was flat at $74.29 says WSJ.

Japan retail sales recovered in June, data from the Ministry of Economy, according to rttnews.

Retail sales climbed 1.5 percent month-on-month in June, reversing a 1.7 percent fall in May. The rate came in line with expectations.

On a yearly basis, retail sales grew 1.8 percent in June, slightly faster than the 1.7 percent rise expected by economists.

The rebound in retail sales in June suggests that consumer spending picked up again in the second quarter, which supports the assessment that the economy returned to growth last quarter, Marcel Thieliant, an economist at Capital Economics, said.

"I would be willing to "shut down" government if the Democrats do not give us the votes for Border Security, which includes the Wall! Must get rid of Lottery, Catch & Release etc. and finally go to system of Immigration based on MERIT! We need great people coming into our Country!"

"The biggest and best results coming out of the good GDP report was that the quarterly Trade Deficit has been reduced by $52 Billion and, of course, the historically low unemployment numbers, especially for African Americans, Hispanics, Asians and Women"

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1772 (5085)

$1.1723 (807)

$1.1705 (154)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1655

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1626 (3667)

$1.1588 (4045)

$1.1544 (2695)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date August, 13 is 90669 contracts (according to data from July, 27) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1850 (5301);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3266 (1045)

$1.3201 (584)

$1.3154 (285)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3104

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3060 (2206)

$1.3025 (2256)

$1.2985 (1556)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 13 is 24062 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3600 (3206);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 13 is 28064 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2950 (2291);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.17 versus 1.16 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 27.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.