CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 31-07-2012

The euro rose against most of its major counterparts on speculation the European Central Bank will take steps at a meeting this week to stem the rise of the region’s sovereign-bond yields.

French President Francois Hollande buoyed the shared currency earlier, saying all will be done to defend and preserve it. He and Italian President Mario Monti issued a joint statement after meeting in Paris today.

Draghi has a proposal that involves the European Financial Stability Facility buying government debt on the primary market, buttressed by ECB purchases on the secondary market to ensure lenders transmit its record-low interest rates, two central bank officials said on July 27 on condition of anonymity. Further ECB interest-rate cuts and long-term loans to banks are also up for discussion, one of the officials said

The shared currency pared gains after the German Finance Ministry said in an emailed statement it sees no need to give Europe’s rescue fund a banking license.

The pound tumbled for the first time in four days against the euro after Moody’s Investors Service lowered its forecast for U.K. economic growth.

European stocks fell, even as the Stoxx Europe 600 Index completed its second straight monthly rally, after companies including BP Plc and UBS AG posted earnings that missed forecasts and investors awaited the outcome of a two-day Federal Reserve meeting.

The German Finance Ministry said it sees no need to award a banking license to the euro-area’s permanent rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism.

National benchmark indexes retreated in 16 of the 18 western-European markets today. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index slid 0.8 percent, while Germany’s DAX Index added 0.2 percent. France’s CAC 40 Index fell 0.6 percent.

BP lost 4.4 percent to 425.05 pence, the most since Sept. 22. Europe’s second-biggest oil company reported a loss in the second quarter as the company wrote down the value of U.S. assets and production dropped.  BP reported a net loss of $1.4 billion compared with a profit of $5.7 billion a year earlier, the London-based company said today in a statement. Excluding one-time items and changes in inventories, profit missed analyst estimates.

UBS retreated 5.9 percent to 10.29 Swiss francs, the biggest decline since October. Switzerland’s biggest bank reported second-quarter profit that fell 58 percent, missing analysts’ projections, as its investment bank lost money on the Facebook Inc. share sale. Net income declined to 425 million francs ($434 million) from 1.02 billion francs a year earlier.

Gold prices are falling the second day in anticipation of the end of a two-day Fed meeting. In the markets of rumors that regulators have at this meeting will inquire the price, how much to inject new money into the economy, but so far these expectations are premature because the economic situation in the United States is far from critical.

At the same time, power of positive data went by the wayside. It became known today that house prices S & P / Case-Shiller 20 metropolitan areas with a seasonally adjusted rose by 0.9% m / m in May and consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in the U.S. in July. Personal income of Americans rose in June by 0.5% m / m, exceeding economists' forecasts, and personal expenses at the same time remained the same. The Chicago index of business activity, in turn, rose to 53.7 points from 52.9 points, topping forecasts.

The cost of the August gold futures on the COMEX today fell to 1611.4 dollars per ounce.

U.S. stocks are mixed as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates.
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) climbed 3.04% after the world’s largest drugmaker said it will file in mid-August to sell as much as 20% of its animal-health unit in an initial public offering. The company also reported profit that beat analyst estimates as a result of cost cutting.
Currently:
Dow 13,064.95 -8.06 -0.06%
Nasdaq 2,951.12 +5.28 +0.18%
S&P 500 1,384.33 -0.97 -0.07%

Oil fell for a second day as speculation that the Federal Reserve will announce additional measures to stimulate the economy declined after U.S. consumer confidence and business activity unexpectedly grew.

Prices dropped as much as 1.6 percent as a Bloomberg survey of economists showed the Fed will probably forgo a third round of large-scale asset purchases at a two-day meeting beginning today. Consumer confidence rose for the first time in five months in July and a barometer of business activity gained.

The Confidence Board’s confidence index increased to 65.9 this month from 62.7 in June, figures from the New York-based private research group showed today. Economists projected a reading of 61.5, according to the median estimate.

Business activity in the U.S. unexpectedly grew at a faster pace in July as the economy weathered a slowdown in hiring and household spending. A barometer from the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. increased to 53.7 from 52.9 in June. Readings greater than 50 signal growth.

Oil for September delivery fell 97 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $88.81 a barrel at 11:01 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have climbed 4.5 percent this month and have declined 10 percent this year. Earlier, futures touched $88.37.

Brent crude for September settlement declined 60 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $105.60 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Currently the pair is trading at $ 1.2320. The nearest strong resistance level of $ 1.2390 (Jul 27 high)

U.S. stock futures advanced after companies from U.S. Steel (X) Corp. to Pfizer Inc. reported earnings that exceeded analysts’ estimates.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei  8,695.06 +59.62 +0.69%
Hang Seng 19,796.81 +211.41 +1.08%
Shanghai Composite 2,103.63 -6.28 -0.30%
FTSE  5,679.32 -14.31 -0.25%
CAC 3,317.91 -2.80 -0.08%
DAX 6,807.06 +33.00 +0.49%
Crude oil $90.02 (+0,27%)
Gold $1623.40 (+0.21%)

EUR/USD $1.2150, $1.2200, $1.2235, $1.2380, $1.2400

USD/JPY Y78.25

GBP/USD $1.5660, $1.5460

AUD/USD $1.0470

Data

01:00 New Zealand      NBNZ Business Confidence June 12.6 15.1

01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m June +0.5% +0.4% +0.3%

01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y June +4.0% +4.4%

01:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m June +27.3% -15.0% -2.5%

01:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y June +9.3% +10.2%

01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY June -0.8% +0.1% -0.6%

05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y June +9.3% +9.5% -0.2%

06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted June -0.3% +0.6% -0.1%

06:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y June -1.1% +0.4% 2.9%

06:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator June 1.05 1.6

06:45 France Consumer spending June +0.4% +0.2% +0.1%

06:45 France Consumer spending, y/y June +0.6% +0.2%

07:55 Germany Unemployment Change July 7 8 7

07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. July 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%

09:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate June 11.1% 11.2% 11.2%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (preliminary) July +2.4% +2.4% +2.4%

The euro rose against the yen and the pound, after yesterday's decline against the backdrop of optimism that the European Central Bank will hint to take decisive measures to stimulate the regional economy in its monthly circulation, which will take place on Thursday.

The single currency fluctuated against the dollar on the eve of a two-day meeting of Federal Reserve policy, which will be held today. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble yesterday supported the commitment of European leaders to protect the euro. The Australian dollar hit a four-month high against the dollar after a report showed that the number of building permits fell less than expected by many economists.

The pound fell for the first time in four days against the euro after the rating agency Investors Service Moody 's downgraded the outlook for UK economic growth. The pound fell against all but one of the 16 major currencies as well as a report showed consumer confidence in the UK industry has stalled this month due to the fact that the recession is getting worse. UK government bonds rose as investors sought safer assets.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2440/50, $1.2420, $1.2390/400, $1.2375/80, $1.2325/30

Bids $1.2225/20, $1.2180/70

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0635/40, $1.0560

Bids $1.0490/85, $1.0450, $1.0400, $1.0385/80

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5800/10, $1.5780, $1.5750, $1.5700

Bids $1.5655/50, $1.5620, $1.5560/50

EUR/JPY

Offers Y97.30/35, Y97.00, Y96.80/85, Y96.50, Y96.40

Bids Y95.80, Y95.65/60, Y95.50, Y95.20

USD/JPY

Offers Y79.00, Y78.80, Y78.65/70, Y78.50

Bids Y78.10, Y77.50

Trading in Europe opened growth futures. Positives came from the expectations of the new measures to stimulate the economy, which may declare at a meeting of the ECB (August 2 this year). U.S. Fed meeting will be held on August 1. Special attention to the investors are the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting at which a decision will be made public by the level of the base interest rate.

Negative trading background has provided economic data on unemployment in Germany in July 2012 So, according to the Federal Employment Agency of Germany, the number of unemployed in Germany, seasonally adjusted, in July 2012 increased by 7 thousand from the previous month.

At the moment:

FTSE 100 5,688.67 -4.96 -0.09%

DAX 6,814.67 +40.61 +0.60%

CAC 3,326.30 +5.59 +0.17%

Net profit of BP in the I half 2012 fell by 2.9 times compared to the same period last year, in connection with the shares were down 3.37%.

EUR/USD $1.2150, $1.2200, $1.2235, $1.2380, $1.2400

USD/JPY Y78.25

GBP/USD $1.5660, $1.5460

AUD/USD $1.0470

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index headed for a second monthly gain, on speculation the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank may signal their readiness to stimulate growth amid signs of a global economic slowdown, boosting the earnings outlook for exporters.

Nikkei 225 8,695.06 +59.62 +0.69%

S&P/ASX 200 4,269.2 +23.49 +0.55%

Shanghai Composite 2,103.67 -6.24 -0.30%

Canon Inc., the world’s biggest camera maker, advanced 5.8 percent in Tokyo on a share buyback plan, pacing gains among information technology shares.

Hokuriku Electric Power Co. soared 14 percent, leading Japanese utilities higher after raising its sales forecast.

Campbell Brothers Ltd., a provider of laboratory services for the mining industry, slumped 10 percent in Sydney after saying volatility and uncertainty in the global economy may have a negative earnings impact.

01:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m June +0.7% +2.8%

Yesterday, during the American session, the euro has stabilized in a narrow range after reaching a two-day minimum. After the speech, Draghi last week, the players remain cautious, as the ECB may disappoint investors hoping for a more active anti-crisis measures. Market participants are preparing for possibly making a key week, central banks with respect to monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic.

Earlier, the euro fell slightly after reaching on Friday the 3-week high against the U.S. dollar, despite the promise of a joint German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti to do everything to protect the euro area, given by them on Saturday and despite the decline in yields of Spanish government bonds.

Also negative for the single currency have data showing that economic sentiment in the euro zone have deteriorated more than expected in July due to declining confidence in all sectors. Reducing fixed for the fourth consecutive month. The survey data from the European Commission showed that the index of economic sentiment fell to 87.9 in July from 89.9 a month earlier. The index of economic confidence in the industry continued its downward trend that began in March. Industrial confidence fell to -15 in July from -12.8 the previous month.

The pound fell after the Bank of England data showed that the number of approved applications for mortgages fell in June, reflecting economic weakness in the month due to the extra holidays and a very wet weather. Consumer lending on credit cards has increased, but the mortgage lending for house purchase fell to its lowest level over the past year and a half. Recall that last week, official data showed that the economic indicators in the second quarter of 2012 recorded the biggest fall since the beginning of 2009.

Asian stocks headed for the biggest three-day gain in seven weeks, as financial firms advanced amid optimism European policy makers will support the euro and after companies including Konica Minolta Holdings Inc. reported earnings.

Nikkei 225 8,635.44 +68.80 +0.80%

S&P/ASX 200 4,245.7 +35.93 +0.85%

Shanghai Composite 2,112.67 -16.09 -0.76%

Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Australia’s biggest lender by market value, gained 1.8 percent in Sydney after the cost to protect Asian bonds against default declined.

Konica Minolta, an imaging-equipment maker that gets 28 percent of its sales in Europe, jumped 5.8 percent in Tokyo after operating profit almost doubled from a year earlier.

Iluka Resources Ltd. surged 9.2 percent in Sydney after Morgan Stanley raised the mining company’s investment rating.

European stocks rose to their highest level since April amid optimism the European Central Bank will win support from policy makers for a plan to ease the euro area’s debt crisis.

ECB President Mario Draghi proposes using the euro area’s temporary rescue fund to buy government bonds on the primary market, while the central bank purchases securities on the secondary market to ensure the transmission of its record-low interest rates, two central bank officials said on July 27 on condition of anonymity.

European stocks rose for an eighth consecutive week last week as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande joined Draghi in promising to do everything to protect the euro.

Air France surged 19 percent to 4.62 euros, its biggest gain in two decades, after posting a narrower second-quarter loss as a restructuring program helped to reduce operating costs. Europe’s second-largest airline by sales reported an operating loss of 66 million euros compared with 145 million euros a year earlier. That beat the average estimate for a 163 million-euro operating loss of three analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Revenue rose 4.5 percent to 6.5 billion euros.

International Consolidated Airlines Group SA, the parent company of British Airways Plc, rose 7.2 percent to 162 pence. Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Europe’s biggest airline by sales, gained 3.2 percent to 10.41 euros.

National benchmark indexes climbed in western-European market except Iceland. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index and France’s CAC 40 Index jumped 1.2 percent, while Germany’s DAX Index gained 1.3 percent.

Change % Change Last

Gold 1,626 +3 +0.17%

Oil 89.51 -0.62 -0.69%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,635.44 +68.80 +0.80%

S&P/ASX 200 4,245.7 +35.93 +0.85%

Shanghai Composite 2,112.67 -16.09 -0.76%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2254 -0,53%

GBP/USD $1,5702 -0,29%

USD/CHF Chf0,9799 +0,52%

USD/JPY Y78,16 -0,38%

EUR/JPY Y95,78 -0,90%

GBP/JPY Y123,54 + 0,66%

AUD/USD $1,0491 +0,10%

NZD/USD $0,8077 -0,17%

USD/CAD C$1,0020 -0,10%

01:00 New Zealand NBNZ Business Confidence June 12.6 15.1

01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m June +0.5% +0.4% +0.3%

01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y June +4.0% +4.4%

01:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m June +27.3% -15.0% -2.5%

01:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y June +9.3% +10.2%

01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY June -0.8% +0.1% -0.6%

05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y June +9.3% +9.5%

06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted June -0.3% +0.6%

06:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y June -1.1% +0.4%

06:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator June 1.05

06:45 France Consumer spending June +0.4% +0.2%

06:45 France Consumer spending, y/y June +0.6%

07:55 Germany Unemployment Change July 7 8

07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. July 6.8% 6.8%

09:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate June 11.1% 11.2%

12:30 Canada GDP (m/m) May +0.3% +0.2%

12:30 Canada Raw Material Price Index June -1.0% +1.7%

12:30 Canada Industrial product prices, m/m June 0.0% +0.6%

12:30 U.S. Personal Income, m/m June +0.2% +0.5%

12:30 U.S. Personal spending June 0.0% +0.1%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m June +0.1% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y June +1.8% +1.8%

12:30 U.S. Employment Cost Index Quarter II +0.4% +0.6%

13:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y May -1.9% -1.5%

13:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index July 52.9 52.6

14:00 U.S. Consumer confidence July 62.0 61.5

19:00 U.S. Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks -

23:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y July +1.1%