CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 31-10-2014

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31.10.2014

19:00

Dow 17,346.08 +150.66 +0.88%, Nasdaq 4,619.59 +53.45 +1.17%, S&P 500 2,012.17 +17.52 +0.88%

17:00

European stocks closed in plus: FTSE 100 6,546.47 +82.92 +1.28%, CAC 40 4,233.09 +91.85 +2.22%, DAX 9,326.87 +212.03 +2.33%

17:00

European stocks close: stocks closed higher, Bank of Japan’s boost of stimulus measures still supported markets

Stock indices closed higher. Bank of Japan's boost of stimulus measures still supported markets. The Bank (BoJ) decided on Friday to increase its monetary base target to an annual increase of ¥80 trillion, up from ¥60-70 trillion, and to boost exchange-traded fund purchases to ¥3 trillion. This decision was not expected by analysts.

Eurozone's consumer price index climbed at an annual rate of 0.4% in October, in line with expectations, up from a 0.3% rise in September.

Eurozone's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 11.5% in September, in line with expectations.

German adjusted retail sales fell 3.2% in September, missing expectations for a 1.0% decline, after a 1.5% gain in August. August's figure was revised down from a 2.5% increase.

Consumer spending in France dropped 0.8% in September, missing forecasts of a 0.5% decrease, after a 0.9% decline in August. August's figure was revised down from a 0.7% rise.

BNP Paribas SA shares climbed 4.1%after posting the better-than-estimated third-quarter profit.

Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc shares rose 5.8% after the better-than-estimated third-quarter profit.

Indexes on the close:

Name Price Change Change %

FTSE 100 6,546.47 +82.92 +1.28%

DAX 9,326.87 +212.03 +2.33%

CAC 40 4,233.09 +91.85 +2.22%

16:40

Brent crude headed for a sixth weekly loss

Brent crude headed for a sixth weekly loss, the longest losing streak since 2002, as OPEC boosted production to a 14-month high amid a global surplus. West Texas Intermediate was on track for its biggest monthly decline in more than two years.

Futures fell as much as 1.9 percent in London, bringing October's drop to about 11 percent. Both Brent and WTI are poised for their biggest monthly declines since 2012. U.S. crude production climbed to the highest level in at least three decades last week. Traders are split on whether Saudi Arabia will deepen the crude price cuts that propelled oil into a bear market this month.

"Fears of a supply glut and slow economic conditions continue to weigh on the market," said Gene McGillian, a senior analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. "The bears are in control and the market continues to come under pressure."

Brent for December settlement slid $1.37, or 1.6 percent, to $84.87 a barrel at 11 a.m. New York time on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The volume of all futures was 21 percent below the 100-day average. Prices have lost 1.5 percent this week.

WTI for December delivery declined $1.30, or 1.6 percent, to $79.82 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Volume was 11 percent below the 100-day average. Prices are down 12 percent this month and 1.5 percent this week. Brent traded at a premium of $4.98 to WTI on ICE, compared with $5.12 at the end of last week.

16:34

Foreign exchange market. American session: the Canadian dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar after the weak Canadian gross domestic product

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies after the mixed U.S. economic data. The final Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index jumped to 86.9 in October from 86.4 in September, exceeding expectations for a rise to 86.4.

The Chicago purchasing managers' index increased to 66.2 in October from 60.5 in September, beating expectations for a decline to 59.5.

Personal income in the U.S. rose 0.2% in September, missing expectations for a 0.3% increase, after a 0.3% gain in August.

Personal spending in the U.S. declined 0.2% in September, missing expectations for a 0.1% rise, after a 0.5% gain in August.

The euro traded slightly higher against the U.S. dollar. Eurozone's consumer price index climbed at an annual rate of 0.4% in October, in line with expectations, up from a 0.3% rise in September.

Eurozone's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 11.5% in September, in line with expectations.

German adjusted retail sales fell 3.2% in September, missing expectations for a 1.0% decline, after a 1.5% gain in August. August's figure was revised down from a 2.5% increase.

Consumer spending in France dropped 0.8% in September, missing forecasts of a 0.5% decrease, after a 0.9% decline in August. August's figure was revised down from a 0.7% rise.

The British pound traded higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from the U.K.

The Canadian dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar after the weak Canadian gross domestic product. The Canadian gross domestic product fell 0.1% in August, after the flat reading in July.

3.5% in the third quarter, beating expectations for a 3.1% gain, after a 4.6% rise in the second quarter.

The New Zealand dollar fell against the U.S. dollar. In the overnight trading session, the kiwi traded mixed against the greenback after the weak building permits data from New Zealand. The number of building permits in New Zealand dropped a seasonally adjusted 12.2% in September, after the flat reading in August.

The kiwi was supported by news that the Chinese government is lifting the temporary suspension for export of Fonterra powder products.

The Australian dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. In the overnight trading session, the Aussie declined against the greenback after the release of Australian producer price index and private sector credit. Australia's producer price index (PPI) rose 0.2% in the third quarter, after a 0.1% decline in the second quarter.

On a yearly basis, Australia's PPI increased 1.2% in the third quarter, missing expectations for a 2.6% rise, after a 2.3% gain in the second quarter.

Private sector credit in Australia climbed 0.5% in September, beating expectations for a 0.4% rise, after a 0.4% increase in August.

On a yearly basis, private sector credit in Australia rose 5.4% in September, after a 5.1% gain in August.

The Japanese yen dropped against the U.S. dollar after the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. The Bank (BoJ) decided to increase its monetary base target to an annual increase of ¥80 trillion, up from ¥60-70 trillion, and to boost exchange-traded fund purchases to ¥3 trillion. This decision was not expected by analysts.

News that the Japanese government approved plans by the Government Pension Investment Fund to raise the holding of foreign stocks to 25% from 12% also weighed on the yen.

Japan's national consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.2% in September, exceeding expectations for a 3.0% gain, after a 3.3 increase in August.

Japan's national CPI excluding fresh food increased 3.0% in September, in line with expectations, after a 3.1% rise in August.

Tokyo's CPI climbed 2.5% in October, after a 2.9% rise in September.

Tokyo's CPI excluding fresh food gained 2.5% in October, in line with expectations, after a 2.6% increase in September.

Household spending in Japan dropped at annual rate of 5.6% in September, missing forecasts of a 4.0% decrease, after a 4.7% fall in August.

Japan's unemployment rate rose to 3.6% in September from 3.5% in August, in line with expectations.

16:20

Gold fell to 4-year low

Gold fell to lows since 2010 due to the good economic data from the US and the strengthening of the dollar, as lower metal prices contributed fixation losses investors.

Gold prices fell dramatically after the strengthening of the dollar to nearly four-week high against a basket of major currencies. The dollar was supported by strong data on US gross national product, as well as by the central bank of Japan, who suddenly decided to expand its massive monetary stimulus, triggering a decline in the yen.

Gold has fallen in price by 4.7 per cent this week, and it is the biggest weekly decline since June of 2013.

"We believe that the gold price will fall, given the US economic recovery and expectations of higher interest rates - said Chen Min, an analyst at the market of precious metals in Jinrui Futures from Shenzhen. - In the long term, gold is likely to make its way closer to the level of $ 1.000 per an ounce. "

Stocks of the world's largest fund ETF SPDR Gold Trust on Thursday declined by 0.16 percent to 741.2 tons, six-year low.

The cost of December gold futures on the COMEX today dropped to 1160.50 dollars per ounce.

15:15

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda: further stimulus measures are necessary “to ensure the early achievement of our price target”

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said at a press conference on Friday that the central bank expanded its quantitative and qualitative easing "to ensure the early achievement of our price target". He added that "now is a critical moment for Japan to emerge from deflation".

Kuroda said that Japan's economy continues to recover, but falling oil prices, slowing global growth and weak household spending after the tax hike had a negative impact on price growth.

15:01

USDJPY declines after the better-than-expected U.S. economic data

The final Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index jumped to 86.9 in October from 86.4 in September, exceeding expectations for a rise to 86.4.

The Chicago purchasing managers' index increased to 66.2 in October from 60.5 in September, beating expectations for a decline to 59.5.

13:55

U.S.: Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, October 86.9 (forecast 86.4)

13:45

U.S.: Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index , October 66.2 (forecast 59.5)

13:40

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD: $1.2600-05(E2.3bn), $1.2615(E1.1bn), $1.2700(E2.5bn), $1.2800(E1.5bn)

USD/JPY: Y107.65($2.8bn), Y108.50($1.2bn), Y109.50($550mn)

EUR/JPY: Y138.50(E615mn), Y138.85(E230mn)

GBP/USD: $1.6000(stg713mn), $1.6100(stg700mn)

EUR/GBP: stg0.7940-50(E1.0bn)

USD/CHF: Chf0.9445-60($440mn), Chf0.9560-65($500mn)

AUD/USD: $0.8745(A$2.5bn), $0.8775, $0.8850(A$649mn), $0.8900(A$300mn)

AUD/JPY: Y95.25(A$602mn), Y96.00(A$510mn)

NZD/USD: $0.7750(NZ$550mn), $0.7900(NZ$1.2bn)..(AUD/NZD Friday NZ$1.1300 A$1bn)

USD/CAD: C$1.1015($2.2bn)

13:37

U.S. Stocks open: Dow 17,311.65 +116.23 +0.68%, Nasdaq 4,631.82 +65.68 +1.44%, S&P 2,013.76 +19.11 +0.96%

13:29

Before the bell: S&P futures +1.03%, Nasdaq futures +1.48%

U.S. stock futures declined, as data showing faster-than-estimated growth last quarter fueled speculation the economy is be strong enough for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than estimated.

Global markets:

Nikkei 16,413.76 +755.56 +4.83%

Hang Seng 23,998.06 +296.02 +1.25%

Shanghai Composite 2,420.18 +29.10 +1.22%

FTSE 6,532.56 +69.01 +1.07%

CAC 4,234.09 +92.85 +2.24%

DAX 9,298.45 +183.61 +2.01%

Crude oil $79.95 (-1.43%)

Gold $1164.70 (-2.80%)

13:11

Foreign exchange market. European session: the U.S. dollar traded mixed to higher against the most major currencies ahead of the Chicago purchasing managers' index and final Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

00:05 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence October -1 -2

00:30 Australia Producer price index, q / q Quarter III -0.1% +0.2%

00:30 Australia Producer price index, y/y Quarter III +2.3% +2.6% +1.2%

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m September +0.4% +0.4% +0.5%

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y September +5.1% +5.4%

03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

03:00 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target 270 270 275

03:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y September -12.5% -17.1% -14.3%

06:00 Japan BOJ Outlook Report

06:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference

07:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted September +1.5% Revised From +2.5% -1.0% -3.2%

07:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y September -0.7% Revised From +0.1% +1.2% +2.3%

07:45 France Consumer spending September -0.9% Revised From +0.7% -0.5% -0.8%

07:45 France Consumer spending, y/y September +1.4% +0.2%

10:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate September 11.5% 11.5% 11.5%

10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Preliminary) October +0.3% +0.4% 0.4%

12:30 Canada GDP (m/m) August 0.0% -0.1%

12:30 U.S. Employment Cost Index Quarter III +0.7% +0.5% +0.7%

12:30 U.S. Personal Income, m/m September +0.3% +0.3% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. Personal spending September +0.5% +0.1% -0.2%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m September +0.1% +0.1% +0.1%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y September +1.5% +1.5%

The U.S. dollar traded mixed to higher against the most major currencies ahead of the Chicago purchasing managers' index and final Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The Chicago purchasing managers' index is expected to decline to 59.5 in October from 60.5 in September.

The final Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to rise to 86.4 in October.

Personal income in the U.S. rose 0.2% in September, missing expectations for a 0.3% increase, after a 0.3% gain in August.

Personal spending in the U.S. declined 0.2% in September, missing expectations for a 0.1% rise, after a 0.5% gain in August.

The greenback remained supported by yesterday's U.S. gross domestic product. The U.S. preliminary gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.5% in the third quarter, beating expectations for a 3.1% gain, after a 4.6% rise in the second quarter.

The euro traded lower against the U.S. dollar. Eurozone's consumer price index climbed at an annual rate of 0.4% in October, in line with expectations, up from a 0.3% rise in September.

Eurozone's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 11.5% in September, in line with expectations.

German adjusted retail sales fell 3.2% in September, missing expectations for a 1.0% decline, after a 1.5% gain in August. August's figure was revised down from a 2.5% increase.

Consumer spending in France dropped 0.8% in September, missing forecasts of a 0.5% decrease, after a 0.9% decline in August. August's figure was revised down from a 0.7% rise.

The British pound traded mixed against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from the U.K.

The Canadian dollar dropped against the U.S. dollar after the weak Canadian gross domestic product. The Canadian gross domestic product fell 0.1% in August, after the flat reading in July.

EUR/USD: the currency pair dropped to $1.2519

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair rose to Y111.99

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

13:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index October 60.5 59.5

13:55 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Finally) October 84.6 86.4

13:07

DOW components before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

Procter & Gamble Co	PG	87.05	+0.13%	23.2K
International Business Machines Co...	IBM	165.41	+0.64%	6.6K
Johnson & Johnson	JNJ	107.75	+0.66%	8.2K
Pfizer Inc	PFE	30.05	+0.70%	162.3K
Wal-Mart Stores Inc	WMT	76.99	+0.71%	2.7K
Verizon Communications Inc	VZ	50.26	+0.72%	7.8K
Boeing Co	BA	124.80	+0.79%	3.1K
McDonald's Corp	MCD	94.13	+0.80%	7.8K
AT&T Inc	T	34.79	+0.81%	8.3K
Travelers Companies Inc	TRV	100.85	+0.85%	0.6K
General Electric Co	GE	25.89	+0.86%	88.0K
Merck & Co Inc	MRK	57.82	+0.89%	0.9K
Home Depot Inc	HD	98.49	+0.99%	3.3K
Exxon Mobil Corp	XOM	95.40	+1.01%	81.1K
Goldman Sachs	GS	188.90	+1.03%	3.8K
JPMorgan Chase and Co	JPM	60.00	+1.03%	11.0K
The Coca-Cola Co	KO	41.84	+1.06%	12.4K
Nike	NKE	94.00	+1.08%	1.0K
Microsoft Corp	MSFT	46.56	+1.11%	60.8K
3M Co	MMM	153.82	+1.13%	0.2K
Walt Disney Co	DIS	91.25	+1.14%	32.4K
E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co	DD	68.47	+1.20%	1.3K
Caterpillar Inc	CAT	101.50	+1.34%	3.1K
American Express Co	AXP	89.99	+1.41%	7.0K
Cisco Systems Inc	CSCO	24.42	+1.41%	11.5K
Chevron Corp	CVX	118.90	+1.45%	0.7K
United Technologies Corp	UTX	108.00	+1.56%	0.3K
Intel Corp	INTC	33.30	+2.21%	86.1K
Visa	V	236.65	0.00%	17.0K

12:45

Orders

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2770, $1.2720, $1.2700, $1.2665

Bids $1.2540, $1.2500

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6185, $1.6100, $1.6085, $1.6035

Bids $1.5940, $1.5900, $1.5875

AUD/USD

Offers $0.8925, $0.8910, $0.8860

Bids $0.8755, $0.8720, $0.8700, $0.8685, $0.8650

EUR/JPY

Offers Y141.25, Y141.00, Y140.00

Bids Y139.05, Y138.00, Y136.90

USD/JPY

Offers Y113.00, Y112.00

Bids Y110.00, Y109.00, Y108.80

EUR/GBP

Offers $0.7910, $0.7900, $0.7880

Bids stg0.7835, stg0.7800,

12:32

Bank of Japan boosted its stimulus measures

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) released its interest rate decision on Friday. The BoJ kept its interest unchanged, but decided to increase its monetary base target to an annual increase of ¥80 trillion, up from ¥60-70 trillion, and to boost exchange-traded fund purchases to ¥3 trillion. This decision was not expected by analysts.

Five BoJ board members voted in favour to boost stimulus measures, while four voted against the further stimulus measures.

The central bank said that "Japan's economy continues to recover moderately as a trend and its expected to keep growing above its potential". The BoJ added that "weak domestic demand after the sales tax hike and sharp falls in oil prices are weighing on prices".