CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 31-12-2014

U.S. stock-index futures were little changed on the last trading day of a year that capped the biggest bull market since the 1990s. Entering today's session, the S&P 500 is up 12.6%, the Nasdaq Composite is up 14.4% and the Dow Jones industrial Average is up 8.5%.

Global markets:

Shanghai Composite 3,233.96 +68.15 +2.15%

FTSE 6,566.09 +19.09 +0.29%

CAC 4,272.75 +27.21 +0.64%

Stock markets in Japan and Germany were closed today.

Crude oil $52.67 (-2.61%)

Gold $1198.80 (-0.14%)

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

EUR/USD: $1.2100(E871mn), $1.2200(E795mn), $1.2278(E702mn), $1.2300(E2.6bn)

USD/JPY: Y119.00($792mn), Y119.50($1.0bn), Y120.00($2.2bn)

USD/CHF: Chf0.9800($320mn), Chf0.9850($500mn)

AUD/USD: $0.8175(A$587mn), $0.8240(A$776mn)

Upgrades:

Downgrades:

Other:

Honeywell (HON) target raised from $105 to $115 Jefferies

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2300, $1.2270-75, $1.2220, $1.2200

Ордера на покупку $1.2125, $1.2100, $1.2000

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5785, $1.5700, $1.5680, $1.5660

Bids $1.5550, $1.5500, $1.5480, $1.5465/50, $1.5430-20

AUD/USD

Offers $0.8300, $0.8250

Bids $0.8120, $0.8060-50, $0.8000, $0.7950

EUR/JPY

Offers Y148.00, Y147.50, Y146.25, Y146.00

Bids Y144.75, Y144.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y122.00, Y121.50, Y121.20, Y120.90, Y120.20

Bids Y118.85, Y118.25

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.7950/55, stg0.7900, stg0.7880/85, stg0.7850

Bids stg0.7700

European indices added gains in a shortened session as volumes thin out near the end of the year. The DAX 30 is closed for the whole day. Trading on the London Stock Exchange will end at 12:30 GMT, Paris will close 30 minutes later. Today markets await data from the U.S. on Initial Jobless Claims, the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index, Pending Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories.

In today's session the FTSE 100 index added +0.20% quoted at 6,559.87 points set for a yearly loss of -2.7% due to its high exposure to the energy and commodities sectors. France's CAC 40 rose +0.66% trading at 4,273.67. Yesterday the DAX 30 closed at 9,805.55 points, a loss of 1.22% ending the year with a gain of 2.65%.

Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate slumped today with Crude heading for the biggest annual decline since 2008 fuelled by a weakening global demand and a supply glut. Brent Crude fell 49% this year as the U.S. expanded output with its shale drillers and OPEC, responsible for 40% of the world's oil production, decided to maintain its output quota at 30 million barrels a day at a Nov. 27 meeting in Vienna in a fight for market share. According to Qatar's Energy Minister Mohammed Al Sada global markets are oversupplied by 2 million barrels a day.

Today prices came under further pressure as a survey showed China's factory sector shrank for the first time in seven months in December. China is the world second-largest consumer of oil.

Market participants are looking ahead to data on U.S. Crude oil Inventories later in the day at 15:30 GMT.

Brent Crude slumped -2.66%, currently trading at USD56.36 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate lost -1.64% currently quoted at USD53.23.

Gold is trading almost flat today slightly under the level of USD1,200. After yesterday's gains of +1.5% the price of precious metal is on the edge of a losing or winning year but is poised to end 2014 almost flat. Gold prices have been supported by the political turmoil in Greece, declining stock markets and a weaker U.S. dollar yesterday but a strong recovery in the U.S. economy and expectations of higher U.S. interest rates will contniue to weigh in the long run. Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, however, remain weak. Yesterday holdings fell 0.21% to 710.81 tonnes, a six-year low.

Trading volumes are expected to be low this week which could lead to volatile and erratic markets. The precious metal is currently quoted at USD1,198.80, -001,% a troy ounce.

GOLD currently trading at USD1,198.80

REUTERS

Dollar top performer among major currencies in 2014

(Reuters) - The dollar was on track to end 2014 with a gain of 12 percent against a basket of major currencies, and anticipated U.S. interest rate hikes may strengthen its appeal in the new year.

This year's gain will be the dollar's largest since 2005, when it climbed nearly 13 percent.

The divergence between the U.S. Federal Reserve's path toward rate hikes and stimulative monetary policies in the euro zone and Japan has helped the dollar index hit an eight-year high this year, and is likely to remain a key theme in 2015.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/31/us-markets-forex-idUSKBN0K903320141231

BLOOMBERG

ECB's Praet Warning of Oil Effects Signals Higher Chance of QE

European Central Bank Chief Economist Peter Praet warned in an interview with Boersen-Zeitung that lower oil prices increasingly risk de-anchoring inflation expectations, indicating that quantitative easing is becoming more likely.

Euro-area inflation will drop below zero "for a longer period" in 2015 amid a slide in the cost of crude, and the Governing Council "cannot simply look through" that, Praet said in comments published yesterday by the German newspaper. Inflation expectations are currently "extremely fragile" and the danger of second-round effects is "higher than usual," he was cited as saying.

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-30/praet-warning-of-second-round-effects-raises-qe-chances-for-ecb.html

BLOOMBERG

Oil Set for Biggest Slump Since 2008 as OPEC Battles U.S. Shale

Oil headed for the biggest annual decline since the 2008 global financial crisis as U.S. producers and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ceded no ground in their battle for market share amid a supply glut.

Futures slid as much as 1.4 percent in New York, bringing losses for 2014 to 46 percent. U.S. guidelines allowing overseas sales of ultralight oil without government approval may boost the country's export capacity and "throw a monkey wrench" into Saudi Arabia's plan to curb American output, according to Citigroup Inc. U.S. crude inventories are forecast to rise to the highest level for this time of the year in three decades.

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-31/oil-set-for-biggest-slump-since-2008-as-opec-battles-u-s-shale.html

EUR/USD: $1.2100(E871mn), $1.2200(E795mn), $1.2278(E702mn), $1.2300(E2.6bn)

USD/JPY: Y119.00($792mn), Y119.50($1.0bn), Y120.00($2.2bn)

USD/CHF: Chf0.9800($320mn), Chf0.9850($500mn)

AUD/USD: $0.8175(A$587mn), $0.8240(A$776mn)

European indices add gains in a shortened session although declining oil prices and political uncertainty in Greece weighed on the markets yesterday. The DAX 30 is closed for the whole day. Trading on the London Stock Exchange will end at 12:30 GMT, Paris will close 30 minutes later. Today markets await data from the U.S. on Initial Jobless Claims, the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index, Pending Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories.

The FTSE 100 index is currently trading +0.32% quoted at 6,567.65 points, France's CAC 40 added +0.40%, currently trading at 4,262.51 points in thin holiday trading conditions. Yesterday the DAX 30 closed at 9,805.55 points, a loss of 1.22% ending the year with a gain of 2.65%.

U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday with the DOW JONES falling below the 18,000 milestone as the political turmoil in Greece and falling oil prices weighed. The DOW JONES lost -0.31% closing at 17,983.07. The S&P 500 declined by -0.49% with a final quote of 2,080.35. U.S. data showed Consumer Confidence rebounding below estimates. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index was better-than expected with a reading of +4.5% for october but below the +4.8% in September. Today markets await Initial Jobless Claims, the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index, Pending Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained +0.44% closing at 23,605.04 points. China's Shanghai Composite rallied to a close at 3,233.96 points, a plus of +2.15% for the day and a gain of 52.9% for 2014. China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI rose from 49.5 to 49.6 beating estimates by 0.1 but still indicating a decrease in activity with a reading below 50.

Japan's Nikkei slipped -1.57% closing at 17,450.77 finishing the year with a plus of 7.12% fuelled by the BoJ assest purchases and a weakening Japanese yen.

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual

00:00 Japan Bank holiday

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m November +0.6% +0.5% +0.5%

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y November +5.7% +5.9%

01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally) December 49.5 49.5 49.6

09:00 Germany Bank Holiday

The greenback traded stronger against its major peers in the Asian session after a better-than expected S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and Consumer Confidence with a reading of 92.6 -below forecast but still 3.9 points higher than in the previous month. Today markets await Initial Jobless Claims, the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index, Pending Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories.

The Australian dollar is almost flat against the U.S. dollar. Data on Private Sector Credit for November on a monthly basis was in line with expectations with a reading of +0.5%. Year on year it rose by +5.9% compared with +5.7% in October. China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI rose from 49.5 to 49.6 beating estimates by 0.1. China is Australia's most important trade partner.

New Zealand's dollar is slightly negative after three days of gains against the greenback.

The Japanese yen lost against the U.S dollar heading for a third annual decline. After yesterday's strong performance caused by year-end profit-taking after the dollar's recent rally the yen weakened today. Finanacial markets are shut today in Japan.

Volume was thin ahead of New Year Holiday.

EUR/USD: the euro traded almost flat against the greenback

USD/JPY: the U.S. dollar traded stronger against the yen

GPB/USD: The British pound lost against the U.S. dollar

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims December 280 287

14:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index December 60.8 60.2

15:00 U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) November -1.1% +0.6%

15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories December +7.3

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2290 (1262)

$1.2233 (417)

$1.2198 (240)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.2155

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2122 (2572)

$1.2079 (3364)

$1.2049 (4161)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 9 is 57352 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (6363);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 9 is 62056 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2000 (6924);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.08 versus 1.06 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 30

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.5801 (2065)

$1.5702 (2549)

$1.5605 (1386)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.5560

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.5495 (2246)

$1.5397 (1202)

$1.5299 (1310)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 9 is 25580 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5850 (4020);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 9 is 20525 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5500 (2246);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.80 versus 0.82 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 30

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Light Crude 53.60 -0.96%

Gold 1,202.30 +0.16%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei 225 17,450.77 -279.07 -1.57%

Shanghai Composite 3,165.81 -2.20 -0.07%

Topix 1,407.51 -17.16 -1.20%

FTSE 100 6,547 -86.51 -1.30%

CAC 40 4,245.54 -72.39 -1.68%

Xetra DAX 9,805.55 -121.58 -1.22%

S&P 500 2,080.35 -10.22 -0.49%

NASDAQ Composite 4,777.44 -29.47 -0.61%

Dow Jones 17,983.07 -55.16 -0.31%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2158 +0,05%

GBP/USD $1,5560 +0,29%

USD/CHF Chf0,9886 -0,11%

USD/JPY Y119,46 -1,00%

EUR/JPY Y145,24 -0,96%

GBP/JPY Y185,89 -0,71%

AUD/USD $0,8182 +0,64%

NZD/USD $0,7828 +0,55%

USD/CAD C$1,1609 -0,22%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

00:00 Japan Bank holiday

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m November +0.6% +0.5%

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y November +5.7%

01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally) December 49.5 49.5

09:00 Germany Bank Holiday

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims December 280 287

14:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index December 60.8 60.2

15:00 U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) November -1.1% +0.6%

15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories December +7.3