Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: raw news — 04-04-2016.

Oil futures fell modestly today, approaching to month low, as investors have less faith in the possibility of concluding the coordinated production limitation of oil-producing countries of the agreement.

Second Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said that Saudi Arabia has agreed to freeze the level of oil production only on the condition that Iran and other major manufacturers join the agreement. Such statements cast doubt on the success of the forthcoming meeting of the largest oil producers and caused negative on the market against the backdrop of Iran's refusal to freeze its current level of production.

Although current fundamentals are unlikely to support the price of oil above $ 45 a barrel, analysts assume that prices may fluctuate in the range of $ 30- $ 40 per barrel. Meanwhile, the data of the Commission on Trade in futures trading, showed that for the first time in the last six weeks of hedge funds last week cut their bullish bets on oil. On March 29, speculators trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, held a short position in the 75,598,000 barrels of crude oil WTI (+11,167 Mill. Barrels for the week). In addition, the rates were closed to the growth of oil prices in the amount of 3647 contracts (thousand barrels each). As a result, the net long position fell to 221,016 contracts.

"There is nothing surprising in a wave of profit-taking and some closing of long positions Some people even say that they could change the position to move to lower prices -. Said the chief energy economist ABN AMRO Hans van Cleef -. It is part of the normal cycle I think that such dynamics may continue this week. We could see $ 36 or $ 37. Prices are falling because of speculation that Saudi Arabia will not join the deal to freeze production. " Some analysts believe that the production record highs near freezing would reduce the surplus, given that demand is expected to continue to grow this year.

A small market was supported by comments of the Acting Minister of Kuwait Oil Anas Al-Saleh. Speaking to reporters, al-Saleh said that he hoped the coordination between OPEC and other oil-producing states, which, in his opinion, will help to stabilize oil prices.

WTI for delivery in May fell to $36.51 a barrel. Brent for May fell to $38.18 a barrel.

Gold is slightly cheaper today, which was due to increased risk appetite after the release of strong US economic data. However, a further decline in prices is still hampered by uncertainty about the Fed raising rates outlook.

In the first quarter the price of gold rose more than 16% compared with the previous quarter, which was the biggest quarterly increase in 30 years.

Recall, on Friday, the Labor Department reported that the US economy continued to add jobs at a solid pace, which is a sign of the stability of the domestic labor market. The seasonally adjusted number of people employed in non-agricultural sector increased in March by 215 thousand., After rising by 245 thousand. In February (revised from 242 thousand.) In the meantime, the unemployment rate rose to 5.0% from 4.9%. Economists had expected employment to increase by 205 thousand., While the unemployment rate will remain at around 4.9%. On average for the last three months the number of jobs increases by 209 thousand. Per month.

"The Fed is still concerned about the global economic growth in view of this, the rate of increase will be gradual, interest rates -. Said experts ETF Securities -. The last meeting of the FOMC Minutes, which will be released on Wednesday, may provide a more complete picture of how the Fed plans to include rate hike. " Recall, higher interest rates have a downward pressure on the price of gold, which brings its holders to interest income and that is difficult to compete with the assets, bringing that income against the background of increasing interest rates. Futures on interest rates Fed point to a 5% probability of a rate hike in April and 26% probability in June.

The data of the Commission on Trade in futures trading showed that the positioning of investors in gold is largely bullish. For the week to March 29, hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish rate to its highest level since the end of 2012. In addition, it was reported that on Friday the gold reserves in the largest gold ETF-SPDR Gold Trust fund fell 0.15 percent, to 818.09 tonnes but remained near 2-year high.

As regards the technical prospects for gold, MKS Group analysts point out that in the short term support will be the range of $ 1215- $ 1210.

April futures price of gold on COMEX fell today to $ 1218.7 an ounce.

The oil driller Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of active U.S. oil rigs fell by 10 rigs to 362 last week. It was the lowest level since November 2009.

The number of gas rigs slid by 4 to 88.

Combined oil and gas rigs decreased by 14 to 450.