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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: raw news — 15-07-2014.
Cost of oil futures dropped significantly, reaching at this three-month low, as weak demand and rising Libyan production offset concerns about rising tensions in the country.
Today, Acting Minister of Libya's oil, said that oil production in Libya has risen to 588,000 barrels per day, an increase of approximately 25 percent over the weekend, despite the resumption of fighting between the militias in the capital.
We add that the fighting in Iraq, the second largest producer of OPEC, has not yet spread to the south of the country where three-quarters of its concentrated production capacities.
According to some analysts, the supply of oil on the market enough, but it is likely that it would be excessive by the OPEC countries. World oil demand in 2015 will coincide with the growing supply from the U.S. and Canada. The main demand will be formed by the newly industrialized and developing countries.
"In the oil market now is a correction after the jump in prices in the wake of the Iraq crisis - said BNP Paribas analyst Harry Chilingiryan. - WTI is cheaper because, despite the very high workload refineries in the United States, their oil reserves are still high. "
Market participants expect a weekly report on the U.S. to measure the pace of oil demand from the largest consumer in the world. The American Petroleum Institute will release its report later today, while a government report to be presented Wednesday. Analysts predict that gasoline inventories increased by 900 thousand barrels last week - up to a maximum in March. Oil reserves are expected to have decreased by 2.5 million barrels - up to 380.1 million barrels, while distillate - increased by 2 million barrels.
Also had little impact on U.S. data that showed U.S. retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in June compared with the previous month, showing the weakest growth since January. This was stated by the Ministry of Commerce on Tuesday. Consumers stepped up spending on clothing, general merchandise and health foods, but cut spending on big ticket items such as furniture and cars. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.4%. Economists had forecast a 0.6% increase in total retail sales and an increase in sales excluding autos in June by 0.5%
Cost of the August futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to $ 99.31 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).
August futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture fell $ 2.06 to $ 104.74 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.
Gold prices fell markedly, being at the same time near the lowest level in nearly four weeks, due to statements made by the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen before the U.S. Congress. During his speech, Yellen said that the Fed should continue implementation of accommodative monetary policy. "Although the economic situation continues to improve, the recovery is not yet complete," - she said. In particular, Yellen noted weakness of the U.S. labor market. She also once again emphasized that the economic forecasts involve substantial uncertainty, and the Fed's decision on interest rates will depend on the macroeconomic data. According to the head of the Fed, the U.S. Central Bank may raise interest rates sooner than the market expects. Much will depend on the pace of recovery. "If the situation on the labor market will improve faster than the Fed suggests that lead to more rapid progress toward our dual objectives, the target of increasing the rate on federal credit facilities may occur earlier and go faster than currently expected," - Yellen said.
Meanwhile, traders note that increasing the risk of further decline, especially given the price fall below $ 1,305. Concerned that even after the price reduction at $ 30 physical demand has not grown substantially, it can also increase the pressure on prices. We add that the quotes in the Chinese market, the world's largest consumer of gold, below the world price, which is a sign of weak demand in the physical market.
The attention of investors is also drawn to the unstable situation in the Middle East and Ukraine. Problems leading financial institutions in Portugal have temporary support of precious metals, which acts traditional safe haven.
Little impact on today's trading also had U.S. data that showed retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in June compared with the previous month, showing the weakest growth since January. This was stated by the Ministry of Commerce on Tuesday. Consumers stepped up spending on clothing, general merchandise and health foods, but cut spending on big ticket items such as furniture and cars. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.4%. Economists had forecast a 0.6% increase in total retail sales and an increase in sales excluding autos 0.5%.
Meanwhile, it was reported that the world's largest reserves secured gold exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust on Monday rose by 8.68 tonnes to 808.73 tonnes.
The cost of the August gold futures on the COMEX today dropped to $ 1294.00 per ounce.
(raw materials / closing price /% change)
Light Crude 101.01 +0.10%
Gold 1,308.10 +0.11%
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