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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: raw news — 19-08-2016.
Oil futures fell moderately today, from the 8-week high. A stronger dollar also weighed on prices - today it has grown by 0.5 percent against a basket of currencies.
"We argue that the improved fundamentals are not the key reason for the recent price rebound", - Morgan Stanley said in a note -. The demand for crude oil is anemic, gasoline demand has slowed down around the world, and China's crude oil imports is likely to slow in the second half of this year. "
This week's data on petroleum inventories in the United States, as well as speculation that the leading oil-producing countries can take steps to stabilize prices, have supported the prices. Recall that the meeting of OPEC member states will be held at the end of September 2016, and a number of countries have already expressed interest in the resumption of negotiations on the limitation of production. Former chairman of OPEC Chakib Khelil suggested that the world's largest oil exporters may still agree to freeze production as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and Russia extract the highest possible volume of oil or close to it.
However, analysts note that the current price rally may lead to the preservation of oversupply as manufacturers can increase production volume. Later today, the focus will be the publication of the Baker Hughes data on the number of US rigs. The previous report showed that the number of operating drilling rigs is growing.
The cost of the October futures for US light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to 48.80 dollars per barrel.
October futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell to 50.47 dollars a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.
Gold price dropped as "hawkish" comments from Fed officials have increased the possibility of a rate hike this year. Pressure also had a widespread strengthening of the American currency.
Yesterday the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Williams joined the group of officials who support a rate hike in the coming months. Meanwhile, the president of the New York Fed Dudley has twice indicated this week the possibility of a rate hike. According to the futures market, the probability of a Fed hike in September is 18% and in December 43.1% versus 39.5% yesterday.
The US currency rose 0.5 percent against a basket of major currencies. Recall, a stronger dollar makes commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. Analysts predict that gold will remain in the range of $ 1320- $ 1370.
The gold reserves in the largest ETF SPDR Gold Trust fell on Thursday 1.3 tonnes, continuing the trend , and reaching a level of 956.50 tons. "The main factors influencing the price of gold, as before, is a strengthening of the US dollar and a further outflow of investors from ETFs that specialize in physical gold," - said Commerzbank.
The cost of the October futures on the COMEX fell to $ 1345.70 per ounce.
This morning, New York crude oil futures for WTI fell by -0.04% to $ 48.20 and Brent oil futures were down -0.47% to $ 50.65 per barrel. Thus, the black gold has slightly decreased in value, correcting the recent rise amid expectations of the largest manufacturers to restore the balance of supply and demand. At the OPEC president saidi last week that the cartel plans to hold an informal meeting on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum in September. Later, Saudi Arabia and Russia have also expressed their willingness to participate in a coordinated action to support the market. At the same time, some traders are skeptical of the success of this meeting, in particular, the possibility of freezing the cartel's production.
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