Quotes for energy resources WTI US Crude Oil Spot (WTI)

• WTI price holds steady near $69.75 in Friday’s early Asian session. 
• Continued soft demand in China drags the WTI price lower.
• A delay in OPEC+ supply increase and encouraging reports from weekly US crude oil inventories might cap WTI’s downside. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude Oil benchmark, is trading around $69.75 on Friday. WTI price edges lower to a fresh 2024 low amid worries about demand in the US and China. However, the delay in OPEC+ oil output increase and a rise in large crude oil inventory draw might help limit WTI’s losses. 

The concerns about the Chinese sluggish economy and oil demand undermine the WTI prices as China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil. The weaker-than-expected Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI released on the weekend and the softer Caixin Manufacturing PMI on Wednesday contributed to the WTI’s downside. 

However, the downside of the black gold might be limited due to positive news from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) and the rise in large crude inventory draws.

OPEC+ has agreed to delay planned output increases for October and November, per Reuters on Thursday. ''Libyan production is expected to resume after the settlement of disputes in the country, which also weighed on crude oil prices. However, the OPEC+ decision could support crude oil prices at lower levels. The dollar index also plunged amid strength in the Japanese Yen and may support crude oil prices at lower levels,'' said Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd.

US crude oil inventories fell more than expected last week. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending August 30 declined by 6.873 million barrels, compared to a decrease of 0.846 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decline by just 0.9 million barrels.

• WTI attracts some buyers on Thursday, albeit it lacks follow-through.
• Demand concerns overshadow hopes for OPEC+ output hike delay.
• The technical setup still seems tilted firmly in favor of bearish traders.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices trade with a mild positive bias, just above the $69.00/barrel mark during the early European session on Thursday, albeit lack bullish conviction. The commodity remains well within the striking distance of the YTD low, around the $68.45 region touched the previous day and seems vulnerable to prolonging its downtrend witnessed over the past two months or so. 

Reports that OPEC+ is discussing delaying its oil output increase scheduled to start in October turn out to be a key factor lending some support to Crude Oil prices. Apart from this, a subdued US Dollar (USD) demand further benefits the USD-denominated commodity. That said, persistent demand worries in China – the world's largest oil importer – and renewed fears about an economic downturn in the US act as a headwind for the commodity. This, along with a bearish technical setup, warrants some caution before confirming that the black liquid has formed a near-term bottom. 

Crude Oil prices have been trending lower along a downward-sloping channel since early Jul. Adding to this, the commodity this week broke down through the $71.50 horizontal support. Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in negative territory and are still away from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the commodity is to the downside and any meaningful recovery attempt is likely to get sold into, making it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for a further appreciating move. 

From current levels, the $69.80 region, closely followed by the $70.00 psychological mark, might act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the overnight swing high, just below the $71.00 round figure. The subsequent move up could confront a stiff barrier and remain capped near the aforementioned support breakpoint, now turned resistance, near the $71.50 horizontal zone. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if cleared decisively should trigger a short-covering rally, which should allow Crude Oil prices to surpass the $72.50 intermediate resistance and aim to reclaim the $73.00 mark.

On the flip side, the YTD low, around the $68.45 region, could protect the immediate downside ahead of the $68.00 mark and the descending channel support, currently pegged near the $67.70-$67.65 area. A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and drag Crude Oil prices to sub-$67.00 levels, or June 2023 swing low.

WTI daily chart

• WTI price falls to fresh YTD lows of $68.85 in Thursday’s early Asian session. 
• OPEC+ could delay the planned oil output increase.
• Concerns of weak demand from China weigh on the WTI price. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude Oil benchmark, is trading around $68.85 on Thursday. WTI price remains under selling pressure and hits the lowest level since December 13, 2023, due to a negative outlook about oil demand in the coming months. 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, or OPEC+, was discussing delaying an oil output increase scheduled to start in October as Libyan production is expected to rise. “With demand growth uncertain and significant supply outages looking unlikely, all eyes are again on OPEC+,” said Svetlana Tretyakova, senior analyst at Rystad Energy. 

The recent weaker Chinese economic data has prompted concerns about the economic outlook of the world's biggest crude importer. Chinese NBS manufacturing activity fell to a six-month low in August, while the Caixin Manufacturing PMI released on Wednesday came in worse than expected. 

The US crude inventories fell significantly last week. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending August 30 declined by 7.8 million barrels, compared to a decrease of 3.4 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decline by just 0.9 million barrels.

Looking ahead, traders will keep an eye on the US ISM Services PMI and weekly EIA Crude Oil stockpiles report, which are due later on Thursday. On Friday, US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for August will take center stage. 

Signs of CTA selling exhaustion in crude oil markets have emerged, and CTAs are now likely to buy in every scenario. 

Downside risks are still growing

“Algorithmic trend followers are now unlikely to add to the pain in crude markets, following a modest selling program that totaled -6% of the algos' max size over the last session which marked peak selling activity for the time being. In fact, CTAs are now likely to buy WTI and Brent crude in every single scenario over the next week, even in a big downtape.”

“While this bodes well for an imminent-term bounce, our return decomposition framework points to deeper troubles than simple positioning dynamics alone. Energy supply risk premia is plummeting as concerns emerge over OPEC+ plans to increase production and optimism rises over a deal that could see Libyan production return to market.”

“At the same time, commodity demand sentiment has also resumed its slump with concerns around Chinese demand and potential run cuts on top of traders' minds. Pressure is growing on OPEC+ to delay their plans to unwind their curtailments in an attempt to halt the slump in supply risk premia. For the time being, downside risks are still growing, and traders won't be able to blame CTA flows if prices continue to weaken.”

• WTI price loses ground due to indications that a political dispute in Libya, may be coming to an end.
• Libya's two legislative bodies agreed to jointly appoint a central bank governor, easing the conflict over Oil revenue.
• Oil prices fell as the Institute for Supply Management showed that US manufacturing remained sluggish.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around $69.40 per barrel during the Asian session on Wednesday. The drop in crude Oil prices is driven by the potential resolution of a political dispute that has halted Libyan exports and concerns over slowing global demand growth.

Reuters reported that Libya's two legislative bodies agreed on Tuesday to jointly appoint a central bank governor, potentially easing the conflict over control of the country's Oil revenue that sparked the recent dispute. The potential agreement to restore the Oil supply could result in more than 500,000 barrels per day returning to the market.

Market sentiment was further dampened by data from the Institute for Supply Management, which showed that US manufacturing remained sluggish, despite a slight improvement in August from an eight-month low in July. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI inched up to 47.2 in August from 46.8 in July, falling short of market expectations of 47.5. This marks the 21st contraction in US factory activity over the past 22 months.

The world's biggest crude importer China showed that manufacturing activity fell to a six-month low in August, with factory gate prices dropping significantly. This has prompted Chinese policymakers to push forward with plans to increase stimulus for households.

Additionally, Oil prices are under pressure from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+) plans to increase production in the coming quarter. OPEC+ is poised to move forward with a planned increase in Oil output starting in October. Eight OPEC+ members are set to raise production by 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) next month.

• WTI Oil has fallen to the $70 level as rumors OPEC is preparing to ramp up production lead traders to press sell. 
• A slowdown in Chinese demand and weak Manufacturing figures further weigh. 
• Mixed US inventory data, Libyan outages and possible Federal Reserve cuts are further factors.  

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude Oil benchmark, is declining sharply into the $70.50s, down over 4.0% on Tuesday, as rumors of OPEC+ production cuts and concerns around slowing China demand weigh on the black gold.    

Six sources from inside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies recently told Reuters the organization is planning to increase production from October. 

“Eight OPEC+ members are scheduled to boost output by 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October as part of a plan to begin unwinding their most recent supply cuts of 2.2 million bpd while keeping other cuts in place until the end of 2025,” said Reuters. 

The production increases come as OPEC+ struggles to compete with US shale producers. By increasing the output of its members it hopes to push down the price of Oil until it is at or below the cost of production of shale, thereby eroding shale companies’ profit margins. 

WTI Oil weakens on slowdown in China demand 

WTI Oil is further pressured by a slowdown in demand from China, the largest Oil consumer in the world. The Chinese economy is growing more slowly and recent data showed Chinese manufacturing activity in August hit a six-month low as measured by the official Manufacturing PMI. Although a separate private survey – the Caixin Manufacturing PMI – showed an increase in activity, markets were spooked. 

Chinese stocks have seen deep sell-offs recently, with the Shanghai Composite Index losing 11.88% since May 2024, falling from 3181 to 2803 over the period. 

According to analysts, China’s economy is undergoing a structural shift which will make it less dependent on Oil in the future, a further headwind for WTI. These structural changes include “fuel-switching to Electric Vehicles (EV) and from Oil to Liquified Natural Gas (LNG),” said Daan Struyven, Head of Research at Goldman Sachs in a recent interview. 

Oil inventories and Libyan outages to support  

Another factor in the decline in WTI Oil may also be mixed inventory figures reflecting a fluctuation in US demand. The Energy Information Agency (EIA) figures for the week of August 23 showed Oil inventories did not fall as steeply as had been expected and contrasted the API data released on the day before, which showed a deeper-than-expected inventory draw. That said, Oil demand has been high in the US over the summer with eight out of the last nine inventory releases showing a decline in inventories, according to Bloomberg News. 

Oil production in Libya was halted on Monday amid the ongoing conflicts between various factions in the country. Exports were halted at major Libyan ports according to Reuters, as a standoff between rival political factions over control of the central bank and Oil revenue disrupted supply. 

Last week one of the factions, the Libyan National Army (LNA) closed down the Sarir Oil field in protest at the Libyan government’s sacking of the Governor of the Central Bank of Libya (CBL), Sadiq al-Kabir. Production at the El Feel Oil field was also halted from Monday. 

Yet, Libyan Oil supply disruption has provided little support for WTI prices. 

“The current disturbances in Libya's oil production could provide room for added supply from OPEC+. But these fluctuations have become quite normal over the last few years, meaning any outages will probably be short-lived; with the news flow indicating signals for a restart of production have already been given," said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodity analyst at SEB.

Impact of Federal Reserve

WTI Oil could be impacted by the decisions of the Federal Reserve (Fed) as they contemplate cutting interest rates in the US amid a slowdown in inflation. 

Markets are currently debating whether the Fed will need to make a 50 basis point (bps) cut to interest rates in September or just a standard 25 bps cut. The latter is fully expected whilst market-based probabilities for the former sit currently at around 30%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. A larger cut in interest rates would be bullish for WTI Oil as it would decrease the opportunity cost of holding the non interest-paying asset. 

Whether or not the Fed makes a larger 50 bps cut or not could depend on US labor market data out this week. At a pivotal speech in Jackson Hole, the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the downside risks to employment were now greater than upside risks to inflation. 

If labor market data out this week, in the form of JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Employment Change, Jobless Claims, ISM Services Employment Index, and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday, come out weaker than expected, backing up Powell’s concerns, it will probably lead the Fed to make a bigger half a percent cut, causing a tumble in the US Dollar (USD) and a recovery in WTI Oil.

• WTI attracts some sellers near $73.30 in Tuesday’s early Asian session. 
• China's manufacturing activity slowed in August, weighing on the WTI price. 
• Halted Libyan exports and higher Fed rate cut expectations might cap the WTI’s downside. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $73.30 on Tuesday. Slowing manufacturing activity in China in August exerts some selling pressure on the WTI price. However, supply concerns surrounding Libya's oil output might cap its downside. 

The sluggish economy and slowing oil demand in China raise the fear of the economic health of the world’s largest importer of oil, which weighs on the WTI price. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China’s manufacturing sector experienced a downturn in August, marking its six-month low. China’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.1 in August, compared to 49.54 in the previous reading. The reading missed the market consensus of 49.5 in the reported month.  

Libya's oil production was halted on Monday across the country amid the ongoing conflicts between various factions since the removal of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. The fear of oil supply disruption might provide some support for WTI prices.

Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodity analyst at SEB, noted, “The current disturbances in Libya's oil production could provide room for added supply from OPEC+. But these fluctuations have become quite normal over the last few years, meaning any outages will probably be short-lived; with the news flow indicating signals for a restart of production have already been given.” 

Oil traders will take more cues from the release of US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August, which is due on Tuesday. Later this week, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will take center stage. This event could provide some insight into the size and pace of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate cut this year. Lower interest rates generally support the WTI price as it reduces the cost of borrowing, which can boost economic activity and oil demand.

• WTI price depreciates as Eight OPEC+ members are set to raise production by 180,000 barrels per day next month.
• Crude Oil prices may find support due to supply concerns arising from export disruptions in Libya's Oilfields.
• Oil faces challenges due to weak demand in China and the United States.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls for the second successive session, trading around $72.50 per barrel during Monday’s Asian hours. This decline may be linked to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+) plans to increase production in the coming quarter.

Reuters reported, citing six sources, that OPEC+ is poised to move forward with a planned increase in Oil output starting in October. Eight OPEC+ members are set to raise production by 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) next month as part of a strategy to begin unwinding their most recent reduction of 2.2 million bpd, while maintaining other cuts until the end of 2025.

However, the decline in crude Oil prices may be limited due to supply concerns stemming from export disruptions in Libya's Oilfields caused by a standoff between factions. Nevertheless, the Arabian Gulf Oil Company has resumed production at up to 120,000 barrels per day to meet domestic demand.

Weak demand in China and the United States (US), the world's two largest Oil consumers, could exert downward pressure on WTI prices. An official survey showed that China's manufacturing activity fell to a six-month low in August, with factory gate prices dropping significantly. This has prompted Chinese policymakers to push forward with plans to increase stimulus for households.

In June, Oil consumption slowed to its lowest seasonal levels in the US since the coronavirus pandemic of 2020, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Friday. ANZ analysts noted a potential downside in growth for 2025, influenced by economic challenges in China and the US. They believe OPEC may have to postpone the phase-out of voluntary production cuts if it aims to achieve higher prices.

• WTI price tends to advance due to rising supply concerns in the Middle East.
• Libya's Oil exports were halted at several ports due to a standoff between rival political factions.
• Iraq plans to reduce its Oil output to between 3.85 million and 3.9 million barrels per day beginning next month.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price continues to rise, trading around $75.50 per barrel during Friday's Asian session. This increase is driven by supply concerns in the Middle East. Worries about reduced Libyan Oil supplies and Iraq's plans to curb production are contributing to these supply fears, which in turn are bolstering Oil prices.

On Thursday, over half of Libya's Oil production, roughly 700,000 barrels per day (bpd), was offline, and exports were suspended at several ports due to a standoff between rival political factions. According to Rapidan Energy Group, as reported by Reuters, Libya's production losses could escalate to between 900,000 and 1 million bpd and potentially persist for several weeks.

In addition, Iraqi Oil supplies are anticipated to decline as the country has exceeded its quota set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies. According to a source with direct knowledge, Iraq plans to cut its Oil output to between 3.85 million and 3.9 million barrels per day (bpd) starting next month, as reported by Reuters on Thursday.

Nevertheless, the rise in WTI prices might be limited by weakened global demand for crude Oil. Persistent concerns about China's economy, the world's largest Oil importer, continue to dampen Oil demand. On the other hand, the US economy has shown modest growth, which has positively impacted investor confidence. In the second quarter, the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 3.0%, surpassing both the forecasted and previous growth rate of 2.8%.

WTI prices may find support from the growing likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve starting in September. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic, known for his hawkish stance on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), suggested it might be "time to move" on rate cuts. This indication comes in response to further cooling inflation and a higher-than-expected unemployment rate.

• WTI price loses ground near $75.15 in Thursday’s early Asian session. 
• Soft demand in China weighs on the WTI price. 
• The threat of supply disruptions in Libya and Middle East geopolitical risks might cap the downside. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $75.15 on Thursday. The WTI price edges lower as investors are concerned about slower economic growth in China. However, oil supply risks in the Middle East and Libya might help limit the WTI’s losses. 

The sluggish economy and slowing oil demand in China raise the fear of the economic health of the world’s largest importer of oil, which weighs on the WTI price. "Demand in China remains weak, and the expected second-half rebound has yet to show credible signs of commencing," Amarpreet Singh, an analyst at Barclays, said in a note.

US crude oil stocks fell less than expected last week. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending August 23 dropped by 0.846 million barrels to 425.2 million barrels, compared to a fall of 4.649 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decline by 3.0 million barrels.

On the other hand, the potential oil supply disruptions in Libya might cap the downside for the WTI price in the near term. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that the Libyan disruptions should tighten the oil market, considering real barrels are removed, but here investors want to see a drop in Libyan crude exports first. Crude oil prices climbed on Monday amid increased rivalry between competing governments in Libya, which has Africa’s biggest crude oil reserves.

• WTI falls to the $74.00 level as lower demand from China, the world’s largest Oil consumer weighs. 
• The weakness comes despite a Libyan political faction shutting down all the country’s Oil production. 
• OPEC+ is expected to increase production which could bring down the equilibrium rate of WTI.  

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Crude Oil benchmark, is trading down by almost one and a half percent to just above $74.00 on Wednesday. WTI is falling as concerns about Chinese demand and risks of a broader economic slowdown offset supply losses from Libya and wider geopolitical risks from the region.

A slowdown in the Chinese economy, the largest importer of Crude Oil in the world, is reducing demand whilst structural changes and the replacement of gasoline-fueled cars with electric vehicles, as well as a general shift towards a greater reliance on green energy, is further taking its toll. 

“The big surprise this year on the demand side has been the softness of Chinese demand growth. The slowdown in China demand, which is mostly structural, is an important factor in Oil markets over the next few years. Some of it is a macro story – GDP is rising at a slower pace – the other reasons are more Oil-specific and micro, and include fuel-switching to EVs and from Oil to LNG,” says Daan Struyven, Head of Research at Goldman Sachs. 

WTI price declines on Wednesday despite the news from Libya that the Sarir Oil field has almost completely halted output, according to Reuters. The move was orchestrated by the Libyan National Army (LNA) who are protesting about the Libyan government’s sacking of the Governor of the Central Bank of Libya (CBL), Sadiq al-Kabir. The LNA controls the country's east and south where most of the oil fields lie. The LNA declared on Monday that all production and exports would be halted. 

Speculation that OPEC+ will begin raising production in order to bring down the price of Oil so as it make it less profitable for competitors in the form of US shale producers, is further weighing on WTI. 

“OPEC has been quite effective in balancing the market and keeping Oil prices in a range,” said Struyven, in an interview with Bloomberg News, however “this is set to change, if OPEC+ increases production.”

The result of such changes in OPEC+’s strategy will be that Oil prices could fall to a lower equilibrium rate where the new floor for prices becomes the equilibrium rate for shale producers. However, the decline is likely to be gradual given countervailing bullish factors, says the Goldman Sachs researcher.  

US monetary policy could be a further factor for Oil price. If the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decides to go ahead with cutting interest rates in 20204-5, as now seems highly likely, WTI could gain a back wind because it would lower the opportunity cost of holding Oil vis-a-vis interest-paying assets. 

The US Crude inventories declined last week, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute (API). Crude Oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending August 23 fell by 3.4 million barrels. This compared to an increase in stockpiles of 0.347 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimate had been for stocks to decline by 3.0 million barrels. 

On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its figures on US crude inventories. They are expected to show a similar fall, in line with the downtrend witnessed during the summer. Out of the last nine US inventory releases, eight showed declines. This reflects increased demand which is a supportive background factor for Oil.  

• WTI price trades in negative territory in Wednesday’s early European session, down 0.35% on the day. 
• Slower economic growth in the US and China could diminish demand for WTI. 
• The potential shutdown of Libya's oil production and Middle East geopolitical tensions might cap the downside for crude oil prices. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $75.10 on Wednesday. The WTI price edges lower as investors are concerned about slower economic growth in the United States and China.

Data released by the Conference Board on Wednesday revealed that the US Consumer Confidence Index improved to 103.3 in August from an upwardly revised 101.9 in July. Nonetheless, consumers are more worried about the labor market after the Unemployment Rate reached a nearly three-year high of 4.3% last month.

Furthermore, fears of the economic health and future oil demand in China weigh on the crude oil price, as China is the world’s largest importer of oil. Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman, noted demand in China has softened as the country switches from gasoline-powered cars to electric vehicles. 

The US crude inventories declined last week. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending August 23 fell by 3.4 million barrels, compared to an increase of 0.347 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decline by 3.0 million barrels.

The downside for the WTI price might be limited amid the potential shutdown of Libya's oil production and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It's worth noting that Libya produces around 1.2 million barrels per day, with more than 1 million bpd exported to the global market. The developments surrounding Libya's output cuts have triggered further supply concerns and lifted the WTI price. 

• WTI trades in positive territory for the third consecutive day near $76.75 in Tuesday’s early Asian session. 
• Libya's shutdown of production and exports fuelled fresh supply concerns, boosting the WTI price. 
• The sluggish Chinese economy and oil demand concerns might cap the black gold’s upside. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $76.75 on Tuesday. The WTI price extends its recovery on the back of a production halt in Libya, adding to supply fears fuelled by reports of escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Libya’s eastern government in Benghazi said Monday that crude oil production and exports would shut down amid a dispute with the internationally recognized western government in Tripoli over who should lead the central bank, per Bloomberg. 

Libya produces around 1.2 million barrels per day, with more than 1 million bpd exported to the global market, said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst for the Americas at Kpler. The developments surrounding Libya's output cuts have triggered further supply concerns and boosted WTI prices. 

"The biggest risk for the oil market is probably a further drop in Libyan oil production due to political tensions in the country, with a risk that production could fall from current levels of 1 million barrels per day to zero," noted Giovanni Staunovo, UBS analyst.

Furthermore, firmer expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in its upcoming September meeting lift the WTI price. On Monday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that she believes it’s appropriate for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates. Lower interest rates generally support the WTI price as it reduces the cost of borrowing, which can boost economic activity, and oil demand.

However, the upside for black gold might be limited. China’s oil imports in July were down 12% from June and 3% from July 2023, raising fears of the country's economic health and future oil demand as China is the world’s largest importer of oil. 

• WTI price extends the rally to near $76.15 in Monday’s Asian session, gaining 0.45% on the day. 
• Fed’s dovish stance and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East further boost the WTI price. 
• The weaker demand outlook in China could weigh on the black gold. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $76.15 on Monday. WTI price edges higher on the back of firmer expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in its upcoming September meeting. 

WTI gains ground after the dovish comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated the US central bank was preparing to cut interest rates. Fed’s Powell gave a clear signal on Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium that it’s time to start cutting the target range for the federal funds rate at the next meeting on September 17-18. Lower interest rates generally support the WTI price as it reduces the cost of borrowing, which can boost economic activity and oil demand.

The fears that wider conflict in the Middle East could disrupt regional oil supplies have lifted the WTI price in the previous sessions. Reuters reported that Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets and drones at Israel early on Sunday, as Israel's military said it carried out a wave of pre-emptive strikes across southern Lebanon to thwart a large-scale rocket and drone attack by Hezbollah. 

On the other hand, a sluggish economy and slowing oil demand in China might drag the black gold lower as China is the world’s top oil importer. China's oil demand increased by 200,000 barrels per day in the first half of 2024 compared to the previous year, which was three times below the average rise of 600,000 bpd from 2016 to 2019, noted Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman Sachs.

• WTI is seen consolidating in a narrow range on Friday amid mixed fundamental cues.
• Concerns about slowing demand and easing geopolitical tensions act as a headwind.
• Dovish Fed expectations continue to undermine the USD and could lend some support.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices struggle to capitalize on the previous day's bounce from the vicinity of a two-week low – levels just below mid-$71.00s – and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Friday. The commodity currently trades around the $72.75 region, nearly unchanged for the day, and remains on track to register steep weekly losses amid concerns over slowing demand. 

A downward revision of the number of jobs added by US employers this year through March resurfaced fears about a potential recession in the world's top oil-consuming nation. This comes on top of persistent worries about an economic slowdown in China – the world's top oil importer – and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the black liquid. Apart from this, hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza contribute to capping the upside for Crude Oil prices. 

In fact, US officials stated that an agreement between Israel and Hamas was close. This, in turn, eases concerns about a wider conflict in the Middle East and supply disruptions from the key Oil producing region. That said, government data released on Wednesday showed an outsize drawdown in US Crude inventories. This, along with expectations that an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve will boost economic activity, could limit the downside for Crude Oil prices. 

Market players seem convinced that the US central bank will begin its policy-easing cycle and announce a 25 basis points rate cut at the September meeting. This, in turn, fails to assist the US Dollar (USD) to capitalize on the overnight goodish recovery from the YTD low and should further offer some support to USD-denominated commodities, including Crude Oil prices. This, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for an extension of a nearly two-week-old downtrend.

• WTI price trades in negative territory for the fifth consecutive day in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
• WTI price declines as worries of a wider Middle East conflict fade, but rising bets on a Fed rate cut might limit its losses. 
• Crude inventories fell by 4.65 million barrels to 426.03 million last week, according to the EIA. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $71.70 on Thursday. WTI price edges lower on the back of easing fears of a wider Middle East war. However, firmer expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September after the FOMC Minutes might cap its downside. 

WTI prices have edged lower as Iran has refrained so far from attacking Israel in response to the killing of a senior Hamas leader in Tehran in late July. The United States hoped that a cease-fire in Gaza would prevent a wider war in the region. "Oil prices are falling, extending losses from the previous week amid ongoing concern over demand in China and amid progress in Middle Eastern ceasefire talks," said City Index analyst Fiona Cincotta.

On the other hand, a decline in US oil inventories and the minutes from the US Fed indicating a likely September rate cut might lift the black gold. The US crude inventories hit a seven-month low last week. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending August 21 fell by 4.65 million barrels to 426.03 million, compared to an increase of 1.36 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decline by 2.8 million barrels.

According to the Fed minutes of the July 30-31 meeting, “the vast majority” of participants indicated that it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting if the data continued to meet expectations. 

Oil traders will monitor the preliminary US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for August for fresh impetus. The attention will shift to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, which might offer some hints about interest rate plans in the future. 

• WTI struggles to gain traction and languishes near a two-week trough touched on Tuesday.
• A surprise rise in US crude inventories and easing Middle East tensions weigh on Oil prices.
• China’s economic woes keep bulls on the sidelines and act as a headwind for the commodity.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices trade with a mild negative bias below the $73.00 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday and remain within the striking distance of a two-week low touched the previous day. 

Concerns about supply disruptions from the Middle East eased after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had accepted a proposal to tackle disagreements blocking a ceasefire deal in Gaza. Apart from this, a surprise rise in US crude inventories continues undermining Crude Oil prices. 

According to American Petroleum Institute figures released on Tuesday, US crude oil stocks rose by 347,000 barrels in the week ended August 16, which pointed to oversupply in the world's biggest consumer of oil. This comes on top of worries about a slowdown in China – the world's top Oil importer – and further acts as a headwind for the commodity. 

Meanwhile, investors remain concerned about the ongoing clashes between Israel and Hamas, despite the ongoing ceasefire negotiations. Furthermore, Hamas said that the US-backed bridging proposal conveyed at the end of the talks in Doha on Friday was a reversal of what the parties had agreed on in early July, keeping investors on edge.

Apart from this, the prevalent US Dollar (USD) selling bias, fueled by the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin its rate-cutting cycle in September, could lend some support to Crude Oil prices and help limit further losses. Traders now look to the official inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) later today. 

The focus, however, remains on geopolitical developments and the release of the July FOMC meeting minutes. The latter, along with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, should offer cues about the US central bank's policy path. This, in turn, will drive the USD and provide a fresh impetus to Crude Oil prices.

• WTI remains under some selling pressure amid hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza.
• China’s economic woes contribute to the decline to a nearly two-week low.
• Fed rate cut bets undermine the USD, which could help limit further losses. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices drift lower for the third straight day on Tuesday – also marking the fifth day of a decline in the previous six – and drop to a nearly two-week low during the Asian session. The commodity currently trades just below mid-$73.00s, down 0.40% for the day, amid hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had accepted a bridging proposal to tackle disagreements blocking a ceasefire deal and also urged Hamas to do the same. This helped ease worries about a broader conflict in the Middle East and supply disruptions from the key Oil producing region, which, in turn, is seen weighing on the black liquid. 

Furthermore, an economic slowdown in China – the world's largest importer of Oil – is expected to curb fuel demand and exert additional pressure on the commodity. In fact, Chinese refineries sharply cut crude processing rates last month in response to weak fuel demand. That said, the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions could lend some support to Crude Oil prices and help limit losses. 

Apart from this, the prevalent selling bias surrounding the US Dollar (USD), which dropped to a fresh multi-month low amid bets for an imminent start of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cutting cycle, should lend some support to the commodity. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive directional bets ahead of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Friday.

• WTI price depreciated as last week’s data showed China's economy lost momentum in July.
• The prices of crude Oil may appreciate due to rising Middle-East tensions following Hamas’s rejection of a ceasefire deal.
• The downside of the Oil could be restrained due to rising bets of a Fed rate cut in September.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price hovers around $75.30 per barrel during the Asian session on Monday. Crude Oil prices receive downward pressure due to concerns over weaker demand in top Oil importer China.

Last week, data from China showed Industrial Production increased by 5.1% year-on-year in July, falling short of the 5.2% expected and easing from the 5.3% growth seen in the previous month. This marks the third consecutive month of moderation in industrial output.

The prices of crude Oil may appreciate due to rising concerns over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East following Hamas’s rejection of a ceasefire deal on Sunday. Hamas has issued a statement rejecting the terms for a hostage release-ceasefire deal discussed in Doha on Thursday and Friday. The group accuses Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of introducing new obstacles into the negotiations, according to Reuters citing a local news agency Times of Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to host US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday. Following their meeting, Blinken will travel to Cairo, where negotiations on a deal are continuing. The US has announced plans to host a second meeting later in the week and aims to finalize the agreement by the end of the week.

The downside of the Oil could be restrained due to the rising odds of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) starting in September increases. Last week's US economic data showed Retail Sales exceeding expectations, while both the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicated that inflation is easing. Lower borrowing cost may positively impact the US economic activities.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly emphasized Sunday that the US central bank should take a gradual approach to reducing borrowing costs, according to the Financial Times. Additionally, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee warned that central bank officials should be cautious about keeping a restrictive policy in place longer than necessary.