Brent crude prices
have seen a modest 0.7% increase, reaching $86.35 per barrel. Despite attempts to test the resistance zone at $87.00-92.00 per barrel
earlier in the week, similar to mid-March, they fell short. This pattern
suggests a potential period of heightened volatility ahead, signaling caution
for oil markets.
This anticipated period of volatility could
persist until mid-May, potentially leading to a precarious downside scenario
with prices possibly plunging to $50 per barrel. While such a drastic decline
may seem unrealistic at present, it could swiftly become a possibility if
prices dip below the $80 per barrel mark. In an effort to counteract such
risks, OPEC+ has extended oil production cuts by 2.0 million barrels per day
until June, though the effectiveness of this measure remains uncertain.
Despite the looming uncertainty, there are
factors that could provide support to oil prices. Recent reports indicate an
improving economic landscape in China, with growing manufacturing activity and
consumer spending. Additionally, China's labor market appears to be
experiencing a prolonged period of tightening, while the real estate sector is
showing signs of improvement, albeit from a negative standpoint. These
developments, coupled with OPEC+ efforts, may help sustain oil prices at
elevated levels above the $81.00-83.00 per barrel range for Brent crude.
JPMorgan analysts suggest oil prices could surpass
$100 per barrel underscoring the potential impact of further oil export cuts
from Russia. However, for this scenario to materialize, it's imperative that
prices maintain levels above $80.00 per barrel by mid-May. Investor sentiment
reflects consideration of such possibilities, with the United States Oil Fund
(USO) reporting $70.2 million of net capital outflows last week, which is above
average. This week investors withdrew another $16 million. Perhaps they believe
that the support at $81.00-83.00 per barrel is solid enough. But that doesn’t
meant investors should continue to stay in long positions during bearish
pressure.
Despite an uptick in U.S. oil inventories,
which rose by 3.16 million barrels against expectations of a 700 million barrel
decline, the market awaits more substantial catalysts to drive meaningful
movements.
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