The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) surged by 0.5% to
reach 104.84 this week, marking its highest reading since February 14. In
contrast, the EURUSD experienced a decline of 0.5%, falling to 1.07240. This
unexpected rise in the Dollar followed a report of slowing inflation published
the previous Friday.
Despite expectations of a weaker Dollar, the
WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund (USDU) reported net capital
outflows of $3.9 million after maintaining a near-zero balance for two
consecutive weeks. This indicates that bets on a weaker Dollar have begun to
emerge. However, U.S. 10-year Treasuries yields surged on Monday to 4.33% from
4.20% following the release of strong PMI data. The ISM Manufacturing PMI
exceeded the 50.0 threshold for the first time in 16 months, with an actual
reading of 50.3 points surpassing the forecast of 48.5 points. Additionally,
the Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed) GDPNow forecasted a Q1 2024 GDP growth of
2.8% QoQ, well above the previous estimate of 2.3%.
These positive developments led to a decline
in bets on a Fed interest rate cut in June, which fell to 56.3% from 66.0%.
However, the volatility in the currency market is increasing, and the Dollar's
momentum may falter soon. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has indicated its readiness
to intervene in the market to counter downward pressure on the Yen, as it did
on October 3 and December 7, 2023, which significantly altered market sentiment
at the time. Similarly, China's central bank is prepared to intervene, as
demonstrated on March 25 when the Yuan strengthened notably. The pressure on
the Chinese currency is resurfacing, and manipulation of the Yuan's exchange
rate may be discussed during U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's upcoming
visit to China.
In the meantime, the upcoming release of
Nonfarm Payrolls data from ADP and the service sector PMI on Wednesday is
anticipated to have a moderately negative effect on the Greenback. Similarly,
the U.S. labor market report for March, scheduled for release on Friday, is
expected to negatively impact the Dollar. With potential actions from the Bank
of Japan and China's central bank, the EURUSD may see a return to 1.08500.
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