Gold prices surged by 2.7% to reach $2293 per
troy ounce this week, marking a new all-time high at $2305, where a formidable
resistance level resides, suggesting a challenging breakthrough.
The precious metal has exhibited remarkable performance,
with a 12.5% increase since the onset of March. This rapid ascent echoes the
trajectory seen during the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in February 2022 when
gold prices soared by 15.0% to $2070 within six weeks.
Despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine,
investors seem to have acclimated to geopolitical tensions, including the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which saw heightened risks following Israel's
attack on Iran's consulate building in Syria, momentarily pushing Brent crude
prices above $90.00 per barrel.
However, investors appear to be reverting to
the traditional belief that gold prices exhibit a negative correlation with
U.S. borrowing rates and the strength of the U.S. Dollar. With U.S. 10-year
Treasuries yields climbing to 4.42%—the highest level since November 27,
2023—and the greenback showing slight appreciation, investors are expressing
skepticism about the current valuation of gold.
Thus, they
are withdrawing from gold assets. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has reported net
capital outflows of $3.1 billion since the start of 2024 compared to losses of
$1.9 billion for the entire 2023. Despite this developments gold prices added
12.0% in 2023 and another 12.0% in 2024. Considering the scale of capital outflows
prices should gain around 7.0-8.0% since the start of this year.
The SPDR
Gold Trust (GLD) has reported another $362.8 million net capital outflows last
week with more than $82.0 million outflows during this week. According to this
data, investors are still abandon gold despite geopolitical tensions and
speculations about central bank continuously buying gold in their reserves.
Technical indicators suggest a potential
short-term decline in gold prices, particularly after encountering resistance
in the $2290-2310 range. A correction towards $2200 per ounce is anticipated in
the near term.
The fundamental landscape further supports
this downside scenario, as mixed PMI data in the United States for March is
coupled with positive ADP Nonfarm Payrolls figures, which surpassed forecasts.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's Q1 2024 GDP estimate of
2.8% QoQ exceeds previous projections. A potential beat in the official March
Nonfarm Payrolls forecast of 212,000 could trigger a notable downturn in gold
prices.
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