Новини ринків

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

00:00 New Zealand Bank holiday

00:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index December 103.9 105.5

05:00 Japan Coincident Index December 109.2

07:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) December -0.1% +0.4%

07:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) December -0.5%

08:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves January 495.1

08:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y December -1.2% +0.4%

09:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods December -8.8 -9.0

13:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) December -13.8% +4.5%

13:30 Canada Employment January -4.3 +5.1

13:30 Canada Unemployment rate January 6.6% 6.7%

13:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings January -0.2% +0.3%

13:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls January 252 231

13:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate January 5.6% 5.6%

17:45 U.S. FOMC Member Dennis Lockhart Speaks

20:00 U.S. Consumer Credit December 14.1 15.1

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies after the mostly weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending January 31 in the U.S. increased by 11,000 to 278,000. The previous week's figure was revised down to 267,000 from 265.000. Analysts had expected a decline to 277.000.

The U.S. trade deficit widened to $46.56 billion in December from a deficit of $39.75 billion in November. That was the lowest level since November 2012. November's figure was revised down from a deficit of $39.0 billion.

Analysts had expected a trade deficit of $38.0 billion.

The decline of a deficit was driven by falling oil prices, a stronger greenback and a strengthening U.S. economy.

Productivity in the U.S. non-farm businesses fell at a 1.8% annual rate in the fourth quarter, missing expectations for a 0.9% increase, after a 3.7% gain in the third quarter. The second quarter's figure was revised up from a 2.3% rise.

Unit labour costs increased 2.7% in the fourth quarter, exceeding expectations for a 1.1% rise, after a 2.3 decline in the third quarter. The third quarter's figure was revised down from a 1.0% fall.

The euro traded higher against the U.S. dollar as concerns over Greece's further bailout policy eased. The new Greece government plans to renegotiate the terms of its bailout.

Earlier, the European Central Bank said that it would not accept Greek government bonds.

German seasonal adjusted factory orders rose 4.2% in December, exceeding expectations for a 1.4% increase, after a 2.4% drop in November.

The British pound traded higher against the U.S. dollar after the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate decision. The BoE kept its interest rates unchanged at 0.5% and its asset purchase program unchanged at £375 billion. This decision was widely expected.

Analysts expect that the BoE will start to raise interest rate later in early 2016.

The Canadian dollar traded higher against the U.S. dollar after the better-than-expected Canadian trade data. Canada's trade deficit widened to C$649 million in December from a deficit of C$335 million in November. November's figure was revised up from a deficit of C$644 million. Analysts had expected a trade deficit of C$1.0 billion.

The decline was driven by falling oil prices.

The Swiss franc traded higher against the U.S. dollar. The SECO consumer climate index for Switzerland increased to -6 in the fourth quarter from -11 in the previous quarter, beating expectations for a decrease to -13.

The New Zealand dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar. In the overnight trading session, the kiwi traded higher against the greenback in the absence of any major economic reports from New Zealand.

The Australian dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. In the overnight trading session, the Aussie traded higher against the greenback despite the weaker-than-expected retail sales data from Australia. Retail sales in Australia rose 0.2% in December, missing expectations for a 0.3% increase, after a 0.1% gain in November.

Australia's new home sales fell 1.9% in December, after a 2.2% gain in November.

The Japanese yen traded lower against the U.S. dollar. In the overnight trading session, the yen traded higher against the greenback in the absence of any major economic reports from Japan.

The U.S. Labor Department released non-farm productivity figures on Thursday. Productivity in the U.S. non-farm businesses fell at a 1.8% annual rate in the fourth quarter, missing expectations for a 0.9% increase, after a 3.7% gain in the third quarter. The second quarter's figure was revised up from a 2.3% rise.

Unit labour costs increased 2.7% in the fourth quarter, exceeding expectations for a 1.1% rise, after a 2.3 decline in the third quarter. The third quarter's figure was revised down from a 1.0% fall.

These figures indicate that the U.S. economy slowed down in the final months of 2014.

The U.S. Commerce Department released the trade data on Thursday. The U.S. trade deficit widened to $46.56 billion in December from a deficit of $39.75 billion in November. That was the lowest level since November 2012.

November's figure was revised down from a deficit of $39.0 billion.

Analysts had expected a trade deficit of $38.0 billion.

The decline of a deficit was driven by falling oil prices, a stronger greenback and a strengthening U.S. economy.

Exports decreased 0.8% in December, while imports rose 2.2%.

Statistics Canada released the trade data on Thursday. Canada's trade deficit widened to C$649 million in December from a deficit of C$335 million in November. November's figure was revised up from a deficit of C$644 million. Analysts had expected a trade deficit of C$1.0 billion.

The decline was driven by falling oil prices.

Exports rose 1.5% in December. Exports of energy products declined 10.3%, while shipments of metal and non-metallic mineral products surged 13.1%.

Imports climbed 2.3% in December, the fastest pace since May 2014.

The Bank of England (BoE) released its interest rate decision on Thursday. The BoE kept its interest rates unchanged at 0.5% and its asset purchase program unchanged at £375 billion. This decision was widely expected.

Analysts expect that the BoE will start to raise interest rate later in early 2016. Low inflation weighed on the BoE's interest rate decision. The consumer price inflation dropped to an annual rate of 0.5% in December from 1.0% in November, the lowest level since May 2000.

The recent released UK's manufacturing, services and construction sectors' economic reports showed a robust growth in these sectors in January, following a decline in December.

Investors are awaiting the minutes of the monetary policy committee (MPC). The minutes of the meeting will be released on February 18.

All members voted in January to keep the central bank's monetary policy unchanged, according to MPC's meeting minutes. During the five previous months, two members, Ian McCafferty and Martin Weale, voted to raise interest rates to 0.75% from 0.5%.

EUR/USD: $1.1300(E1.0bn), $1.1350-60(E737mn), $1.1450(E656mn), $1.1500(E2.6bn), $1.1595-1.1600(E1.8bn)

USD/JPY: Y116.00($368mn), Y117.00($1.0bn), Y117.75($752mn), Y119.00($941mn)

GBP/USD: $1.5145-50(Gbp430mn), $1.5250(Gbp200mn), $1.5275(Gbp275mn)

AUD/USD: $0.7750((A$389mn), $0.7775(A$318mn), $0.7850(A$407mn)

USD/CAD: C$1.2490($410mn), C$1.2570($440mn), C$1.2630($440mn)

EUR/USD

Offers $1.1700, $1.1670/80, $1.1600, $1.1540/35, $1.1500

Bids $1.1300, $1.1260, $1.1220, $1.1200

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5300, $1.5265

Bids $1.5100, $1.5080, $1.4990/00, $1.4955

AUD/USD

Offers $0.8025, $0.8000, $0.7900, $0.7850

Bids $0.7700, $0.7625, $0.7600, $0.7500

EUR/JPY

Offers Y137.70, Y137.30, Y136.00, Y135.75, Y130.00

Bids Y132.35, Y132.00, Y130.15

USD/JPY

Offers Y119.00, Y118.50, Y118.00

Bids Y116.90, Y116.50, Y115.85

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.7715, stg0.7700, stg0.7590, stg0.7500

Bids stg0.7440, stg0.7400

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

00:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m December +2.2% -1.9%

00:30 Australia Retail Sales, M/M December +0.1% +0.3% +0.2%

00:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y December +4.5% +3.3%

06:45 Switzerland SECO Consumer Climate Quarter IV -11 -13 -6

07:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) December -0.4% +3.4%

07:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) December -2.4% +1.4% +4.2%

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index January +0.9% +0.2% +2.0%

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y January +7.8% +7.8% +8.5%

12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%

12:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility 375 375 375

12:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies ahead of the U.S. economic data. The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. is expected to increase by 12,000 to 277,000.

The U.S. trade deficit is expected to narrow to $38.0 billion in December from $39.0 billion in November.

The euro traded higher against the U.S. dollar as concerns over Greece's further bailout policy eased. The new Greece government plans to renegotiate the terms of its bailout.

Earlier, the European Central Bank said that it would not accept Greek government bonds.

German seasonal adjusted factory orders rose 4.2% in December, exceeding expectations for a 1.4% increase, after a 2.4% drop in November.

The British pound rose against the U.S. dollar after the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate decision. The BoE kept its interest rates unchanged at 0.5% and its asset purchase program unchanged at £375 billion. This decision was widely expected.

Analysts expect that the BoE will start to raise interest rate later in early 2016.

The Canadian dollar traded higher against the U.S. dollar ahead of Canadian trade data. The Canadian trade deficit is expected to widen to C$1.0 billion in December from C$0.64 billion in November.

The Swiss franc traded lower against the U.S. dollar. The SECO consumer climate index for Switzerland increased to -6 in the fourth quarter from -11 in the previous quarter, beating expectations for a decrease to -13.

EUR/USD: the currency pair increased to $1.1456

GBP/USD: the currency pair rose to $1.5258

USD/JPY: the currency pair decreased to Y117.44

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

13:30 Canada Trade balance, billions December -0.64 -1.00

13:30 U.S. International Trade, bln December -39.0 -38.0

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims January 265 277

13:30 U.S. Nonfarm Productivity, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter IV -2.3% +0.9%

13:30 U.S. Unit Labor Costs, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter IV -1.0% +1.1%

EUR/USD: $1.1300(E1.0bn), $1.1350-60(E737mn), $1.1450(E656mn), $1.1500(E2.6bn), $1.1595-1.1600(E1.8bn)

USD/JPY: Y116.00($368mn), Y117.00($1.0bn), Y117.75($752mn), Y119.00($941mn)

GBP/USD: $1.5145-50(Gbp430mn), $1.5250(Gbp200mn), $1.5275(Gbp275mn)

AUD/USD: $0.7750((A$389mn), $0.7775(A$318mn), $0.7850(A$407mn)

USD/CAD: C$1.2490($410mn), C$1.2570($440mn), C$1.2630($440mn)

BLOOMBERG

Greece Sticks to Anti-Austerity Demands Following ECB Loan Cut

(Bloomberg) -- Greece held fast to demands to roll back austerity as the European Central Bank turned up the heat before Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis meets one of his main antagonists, German counterpart Wolfgang Schaeuble.

The encounter at 12:30 p.m. in Berlin comes hours after Greece lost a critical funding artery when the ECB restricted loans to its financial system. That raised pressure on the 10-day-old government to yield to German-led austerity demands to stay in the euro zone.

The government "remains unwavering in the goals of its social salvation program, approved by the vote of the Greek people," according to a Finance-Ministry statement issued overnight. It's aim is "coming up with a European policy that will definitively put an end to the now self-perpetuating crisis of the Greek social economy."

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-04/greece-loses-ecb-funds-raising-pressure-on-tsipras-to-yield

REUTERS

China stocks fall as central bank easing fails to impress; more stimulus expected

(Reuters) - Chinese stocks erased earlier gains and closed 1 percent lower on Thursday, after an injection of more money into the system by the central bank failed to impress investors who are worried about an ongoing crackdown on high-leverage trading.

The yuan and money rates dipped after the People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut banks' reserve requirement ratios by 50 basis points, a widely expected stimulus move to support the world's second-biggest economy.

"The cut was largely priced in to the stock market (already), but it has reconfirmed an important message to investors that China's monetary cycle has firmly shifted to the loosening camp," Jing Ning, Portfolio Manager at Fidelity Worldwide Investment, wrote in a note to clients.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/05/us-china-markets-idUSKBN0L90R920150205

REUTERS

Oil drops more than $1 after crashing on inventory concerns

(Reuters) - Oil prices fell more than $1 on Thursday, extending big losses in the previous session as record high inventories in the United States coupled with concerns over global demand had cut short a four-day rally.

Oil markets remain highly volatile, with U.S. crude losing 9 percent on Wednesday in one of its biggest routs. In the previous four sessions, prices had rallied almost 19 percent from their lowest in nearly six years.

Brent crude for March delivery had dropped $1.02 to $53.14 a barrel by 0633 GMT (1.33 a.m. EST), after touching $55 a barrel earlier in the day. The contract had settled $3.21 or 5.5 percent lower the previous day.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/05/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0L907420150205

Today data on German Factory orders for December came in at +4.2%, largely higher than the expected 1.5% with a reading of -2.4% in the previous month.

The Halifax House Price Index for January rose by +2.0%, beating forecasts of a slight increase of +0.2%. In the three months to January the index rose by +8.5%, higher than the +7.8% predicted by economists.

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual

00:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m December +2.2% -1.9%

00:30 Australia Retail Sales, M/M December +0.1% +0.3%+0.2%

00:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y December +4.5% +3.3%

06:45 Switzerland SECO Consumer Climate Quarter IV -11 -13 -6

07:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) December -0.4% +3.4%

07:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) December -2.4% +1.4% +4.2%

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies after yesterday's gains only adding small gains against the euro as the ECB unexpectedly announced that it will not accept Greek sovereign bonds in return for funding, forcing the Greek central bank to provide billions of emergency liquidity for banks in the weeks to come.

Yesterday the Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index for the U.S. climbed to 56.7 in January from 56.5 in December, exceeding expectations for a rise to 56.6. The Private sector in the U.S. added 213,000 jobs in January, according the ADP report on Wednesday. December's figure was revised up to 253,000 jobs from a previous reading of 241,000 jobs.

The Australian dollar further recovered today after slumping more than 1% on Monday to a six-year low. Data on HIA New Home Sales came in at -1.9% for December compared to a previous reading of +2.2%. Retail Sales on a monthly basis rose less than expected by +0.2% compared to forecasts of +0.3%. In the previous month Sales rose +0.1%. Year on year Retail Sales grew at a slower pace at +3.3%, declining from +4.5% in November.

Yesterday the Peoples Bank of China decided to cut bank reserve requirements from 20% to 19.5% to encourage lending and fight off economic slwodown.

New Zealand's dollar continued to add gains against the greenback in Asian trade. The RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler said on Wednesday that interest rates will remain on hold "for some time".

The Japanese yen traded slightly higher against the greenback on Thursday with no major data reported.

EUR/USD: the euro traded almost flat against the greenback losing slightly

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index January +0.9% +0.2%

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y January +7.8% +7.8%

12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%

12:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility 375 375

12:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement

13:30 Canada Trade balance, billions December -0.64 -1.00

13:30 U.S. International Trade, bln December -39.0 -38.0

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims January 265 277

13:30 U.S. Nonfarm Productivity, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter IV -2.3% +0.9%

13:30 U.S. Unit Labor Costs, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter IV -1.0% +1.1%

22:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index January 44.4

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1562 (2503)

$1.1489 (3527)

$1.1435 (1802)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1347

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1298 (3063)

$1.1249 (2420)

$1.1200 (3961)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 6 is 89809 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2100 (6528);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 6 is 78056 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1700 (6642);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.87 versus 0.88 from the previous trading day according to data from February, 4

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.5500 (617)

$1.5401 (568)

$1.5302 (746)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.5202

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.5098 (1740)

$1.4999 (1550)

$1.4900 (2035)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 6 is 18139 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5150 (1323);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 6 is 18241 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4900 (2035);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.00 versus 1.00 from the previous trading day according to data from February, 4

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.