Новини ринків

Fitch Ratings has published a report which notes the collapse of a threat to the eurozone, especially in case of Greece, its composition, which may cause the spread of infection in peripheral countries such E-17, such as Italy, Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus.

According to Fitch, the probability of this outcome is low, but risks still exist. If Greece will be forced to withdraw from membership in the euro area, or do so voluntarily, it will provoke an immediate downgrade of Italy, Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus.

On the other hand, the agency does not consider it likely option split the region into north and south. Nevertheless, it casts doubt on the feasibility of a single fiscal policy in the euro area.

European stocks declined, extending their weekly drop, as a government report showed U.S. employers added fewer jobs than forecast in April.

U.S. payrolls climbed by 115,000 last month, the smallest gain in six months, after a revised 154,000 increase in March that was more than initially estimated, Labor Department figures showed today. The jobless rate fell to a three-year low of 8.1 percent as people left the labor force.

In Europe, four elections this weekend have the potential to reshape the region’s political map and show how the response to the financial crisis remains hostage to the whims of voters on both sides of the region’s economic divide.

Euro-region services and manufacturing output contracted more than initially estimated in April, adding to signs the economy is struggling to regain strength. A composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in both industries dropped to 46.7 from 49.1 in March, London-based Markit Economics said today. That’s less than an estimate of 47.4 published on April 23. Readings below 50 indicates contraction.

U.K. house prices dropped the most in 1 1/2 years in April as a stamp-duty exemption for first-time buyers ended and the economy fell into its first double-dip recession since the 1970s, according to Halifax. Prices declined 2.4 percent from March, the mortgage unit of Lloyds Banking Group Plc said.

Hays slid 8.4 percent to 83.35 pence in London, the biggest drop since 2008, and Randstad lost 5.2 percent to 24.28 euros in Amsterdam. Michael Page International Plc retreated 5.4 percent to 385 pence.

Wacker Chemie tumbled 6.1 percent to 59.80 euros, the largest decline in two months. First-quarter net income dropped to 40 million euros from 168 million euros a year ago. The company said it sees its 2012 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization “markedly” below its 2011 level.

Taylor Wimpey, the U.K.’s second-largest homebuilder by volume, dropped 7.7 percent to 47.69 pence, the steepest fall since August. Barratt Developments Plc , the biggest, sank 7.5 percent to 124.3 pence.

BHP Billiton, the world’s biggest mining company, decreased 3.9 percent to 1,918 pence and Rio Tinto fell 4.4 percent to 3,214.5 pence as a gauge of basic-resources companies was the worst performer among the 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600 today. Xstrata Plc slid 3.1 percent to 1,131.5 pence.

Belgacom SA, Belgium’s largest telephone company, advanced 1.3 percent to 21.76 euros after first-quarter profit of 199 million euros beat the average 194 million-euro analyst estimate.

The yen gained versus all of its major counterparts as investors sought safety after U.S. payrolls increased less than forecast in April and before elections in Europe that may result in leadership changes. France and Greece hold elections this weekend, with French voters casting ballots in the final round of the country’s presidential race and Greeks set to decide on a new parliament.

The euro fell for a fifth day versus the dollar, the longest stretch since September, as France and Greece prepared for elections May 6, spurring bets their commitment to austerity may flag. While the U.S. jobless rate fell to a three-year low, employers added the fewest jobs in six months, fueling concern the U.S. economic recovery is faltering and damping demand for assets linked to growth, such as Australia’s dollar. Nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, after a revised increase of 154,000 in March that was more than initially estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate was for a 160,000 rise. The unemployment rate fell 8.1 percent, from 8.2 percent. A euro-area composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in services and manufacturing dropped to 46.7 from 49.1 in March, London-based Markit Economics said. That’s below an initial estimate of 47.4 on April 23. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Oil fell below $100 a barrel for the first time since February as U.S. employers added fewer workers than forecast, stoking concern that demand won’t be enough to cap inventories at their highest level in 21 years.

Futures declined as much as 4.6 percent after Labor Department figures showed payrolls climbed 115,000, the smallest gain in six months. The median estimate of economists called for a 160,000 advance. Elections in France, Greece, Italy and Germany this weekend may determine how the region’s governments respond to Europe’s financial crisis.

The jobless rate fell to a three-year low of 8.1 percent, and earnings stagnated. The participation rate, which indicates the share of working-age people in the labor force, fell to 63.6 percent, the lowest level since December 1981, from 63.8 percent.

Crude oil for June delivery dropped to $97.51, the lowest level since Feb. 10. Prices are down 6.3 percent this week, heading for the biggest weekly decline since September.

Brent oil for June settlement fell $3.85, or 3.3 percent, to $112.23 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract reached $111.76, the lowest level since Feb. 2. The European benchmark contract’s premium to New York futures widened to $13.90 from $13.54 yesterday.

U.S. stocks declined a third day, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index toward its worst week in 2012, as data showing employers added fewer jobs than forecast intensified concern about the pace of economic recovery.

Equities slumped as payrolls climbed 115,000, the smallest gain in six months and below the estimate for a 160,000 advance. The jobless rate unexpectedly fell to a three-year low of 8.1 percent as people left the labor force. Concern about Europe’s debt crisis also helped send stocks slower as services and manufacturing output in the euro region shrank and France, Germany and Greece prepared for elections this weekend.

Nine out of 10 groups in the S&P 500 fell today as energy, technology and financial shares slumped at least 1.6 percent. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index of companies most-tied to the economy lost 1.8 percent. Chevron sank 2.2 percent to $103.68. Bank of America slid 3.3 percent to $7.74. Intel fell 2 percent to $27.98.

LinkedIn surged 7.4 percent to $117.50. The company, whose shares have more than doubled since its initial public offering in May 2011, said membership increased to 161 million from 150 million in the fourth quarter.

• • The rate of unemployment is too high

  • In 2013-14 years inflation will be slightly below 2%

  • Economic growth in 2012/13 years. expected at 2.5% and 2.75% respectively

  • The country's economy faces significant risks, including those from the eurozone and the U.S. budget

  • The state of the banking system reflects a mixed economic picture in the U.S.

With US data out of the way, chatter turns to French and Greek elections, or a long holiday weekend if you are in the UK, all three damping enthusiasm.

In early trading Friday, the price of gold declined against the dollar to strengthen on the eve of the publication of data on unemployment in the U.S., as well as on the background of weak demand for physical precious metals.

On Friday, the bidders expected publication of unemployment data in the U.S. in April. Published data have been mixed: on one hand the number of new jobs that were created in non-agricultural sectors of the U.S. economy, was 115 thousand, with an average forecast of 158 thousand, but with a different figure for the previous two months were revised upward by a total of 53 thousand. In addition, the unemployment rate in April fell to the level of 8.1% compared with an expected value for March and 8.2%.

At the same time, investors remained concerned about weak demand for physical gold market. Thus, the depreciation of Indian rupee made gold more expensive for the people of India, the world's largest consumer of the precious metal. In addition, according to some traders, Indian jewelers are planning a new round of strikes, which can also lead to a drop in the value of gold.

The cost of the June gold futures on the COMEX fell today to $ 1626.8 an ounce, then rose to $ 1648.0 an ounce and is currently trading at $ 1638.2 an ounce.

Reported bids scattered down to $1.0150 ahead of the next option barrier with stops set on a break.

Resistance 3:1412 (May 1 high)

Resistance 2:1402 (May 3 high)

Resistance 1:1390 (area of session high and МА (200) for Н1)

Current price: 1371,20

Support 1:1371 (session low)

Support 2:1360 (Apr 24 low)

Support 3:1354/2 (area of lows of April)

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3025, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3150, $1.3200, $1.3275, $1.3280, $1.3300

USD/JPY Y79.70, Y80.00, Y80.35, Y80.50, Y80.70, Y81.00 

GBP/USD $1.6150, $1.6100 

EUR/JPY Y105.00

AUD/USD  $1.0250, $1.0300, $1.0350

US Stock futures fell after labor data. Equity futures dropped as payrolls climbed 115,000, the smallest gain in six months, after a revised 154,000 rise in March that was more than initially estimated. The median estimate of economists called for a 158,000 advance. The jobless rate fell to a three-year low of 8.1% and earnings stagnated.

Global Stock:

Hang Seng 21,086 -163.53 -0.77%

Shanghai Composite 2,452.01 +11.93 +0.49%

FTSE  5,704.06 -62.49 -1.08%

CAC  3,196.98 -26.38 -0.82%

DAX 6,621.52 -72.92 -1.09%

Crude oil $100.63 (-1.86%).

Gold $1635.40 (+0.04%).

Data:

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index April +2.2% +1.2% -2.4%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y April -0.6% -0.8% -0.5%

07:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y March +0.8% +1.2% +4.2%

07:50 France Services PMI (finally) April 50.1 46.4 45.2

07:55 Germany Services PMI (finally) April 52.1 52.6 52.2

08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (finally) April 49.2 47.9 46.9

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) March -0.1% +0.1% +0.3%

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) March -2.1% -1.1% -0.2%

EUR/USD
Offers $1.3200, $1.3180
Bids $1.3120, $1.3100/095, $1.3080, $1.3070, $1.3050, $1.3020

GBP/USD
Offers $1.6320, $1.6300/05, $1.6275/85, $1.6240/50, $1.6220, $1.6200/05
Bids $1.6150, $1.6120/00, $1.6085/80, $1.6060/50

AUD/USD
Offers $1.0380, $1.0350/60, $1.0335/40, $1.0320/25, $1.0295/00, $1.0265/70
Bids $1.0235, $1.0225, $1.0200, $1.0160

EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8200, stg0.8180/85, stg0.8160/65, stg0.8150
Bids stg0.8100, stg0.8070/65, stg0.8050

USD/JPY
Offers Y81.20/25, Y81.00, Y80.75/80, Y80.60/70, Y80.50/55, Y80.25/30
Bids Y80.10/00, Y79.80, Y79.70, Y79.60

EUR/JPY
Offers Y106.35/40, Y106.20, Y105.95/00, Y105.75/80, Y105.45/50
Bids Y105.20/00, Y104.65/60, Y104.50

Resistance 3: Y81.45 (Apr 27 high)
Resistance 2: Y80.90 (resistance line from Mar 21)
Resistance 1: Y80.60/50 (area of May 2-3 highs, МА (200) for Н1)
Current price: Y80.21
Support 1: Y80.10 (May 2-3 low)
Support 2: Y79.60/50 (May 1 low, high of November’2011)
Support 3: Y79.15 (61,8 % FIBO Y76.00-Y84.20)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9210 (Apr 18 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9190 (resistance line from Mar 15)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9170 (Apr 23 and May 3 high)
Current price: Chf0.9147
Support 1: Chf0.9100 (area of Apr 30 and May 1 highs,  МА (200) for Н1)
Support 2: Chf0.9050 (May 2 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9050 (area of Apr 26-30 and May 1 lows)

Resistance 3 : $1.3200 (МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 2 : $1.3180 (May 3 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.3160 (session high)
Current price: $1.3128
Support 1 : $1.3100 (area of May 2-3 and Apr 23 lows, МА (100) for D1))
Support 2 : $1.3060 (Apr 18 low)
Support 3 : $1.3000 (low of April and March)

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3025, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3150, $1.3200, $1.3275, $1.3280, $1.3300 

USD/JPY Y79.70, Y80.00, Y80.35, Y80.50, Y80.70, Y81.00

GBP/USD $1.6150, $1.6100

EUR/JPY Y105.00

AUD/USD  $1.0250, $1.0300, $1.0350

Asian stocks fell for a second day, with a regional benchmark index heading for its biggest drop in two weeks, as Australia’s central bank cut its economic growth forecast and U.S. service industries rose less than forecast, sparking concern the global recovery may be faltering.

Nikkei 225 Closed

Hang Seng 21,068.17 -181.36 -0.85%

S&P/ASX 200 4,396.04 -32.92 -0.74%

Shanghai Composite 2,452.01 +11.93 +0.49%

Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s No. 1 mobile-phone maker by sales, fell 2.9 percent in Seoul.

Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-biggest mining company, lost 1.1 percent in Sydney as metal prices dropped.

Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. lost 1.4 percent after Hong Kong’s biggest developer announced former Chairman Walter Kwok’s arrest.

Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust slid 3.8 percent in Singapore after the industrial landlord sold shares at a discount.

00:00 Japan Bank holiday -

01:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement Quarter II

The euro was set for the biggest weekly decline in a month amid concern leadership changes at elections in France and Greece this weekend could derail the region’s austerity efforts. France and Greece are both scheduled to hold elections on May 6, with French voters casting ballots in the final round of the country’s presidential race and Greeks set to decide on a new parliament.  The 17-nation currency was 0.3 percent from an almost two- year low versus the British pound before a private report that may confirm the euro region’s output of services and manufacturing shrank for a third month. A euro-area composite index for services and manufacturing industries was at 47.4 in April, below the 50 level that indicates contraction, according to economist estimates before London-based Markit Economics releases its final reading of the gauge today.

The Dollar Index was poised for a weekly gain before U.S. data forecast to show employment increased last month in the world’s biggest economy. U.S. employers probably added 160,000 jobs last month after a 120,000 increase in March, according to the median estimate of economists before the Labor Department releases its monthly jobs report today.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair holds in a range $1.3140-$1.3160.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair holds in a range $1.6180-$1.6195.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair holds in range Y80.15-Y80.25.

This morning it is the turn of the European services PMIs to dominate the European data calendar. Italy at 0743GMT, then the final figures from France at 0748GMT, Germany at 0753GMT and the main EMU data at 0758GMT. Finally for Europe, at 1145GMT, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble delivers a speech at Ruhr University, in Bochum. UK data is mainly second-tier on Friday, starting at 0600GMT with the BDO High Street Sales Tracker. The main afternoon event is at 1230GMT when non-farm payrolls are forecast to rise 165,000 in April after the relatively modest 120,000 rise in March. The unemployment rate is forecast to stay at 8.2%. Hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.2%, while the average workweek is forecast hold steady at 34.5 hours. In Canada, the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index is due at 1400GMT. The, at 1425GMT, San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks to the California Bankers Association 121st Annual Convention. Late US data sees the 1900GMT release of Treasury STRIPS data.

Yesterday the euro strengthened versus the yen after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers didn’t discuss cutting interest rates at their meeting this week. The 17-nation currency fluctuated against the dollar after Draghi said at a press conference in Barcelona there has been “significant progress” on the fiscal front. The ECB kept its main refinancing rate at a record low 1 percent, as predicted. While the ECB still expects a gradual economic recovery this year, “downside risks” prevail and the outlook has become “more uncertain,” Draghi said.

The euro fell earlier as Spanish borrowing costs increased at a note sale. Spain auctioned 765 million euros of notes due in January 2017 at an average yield of 4.75 percent, versus 3.57 percent at a previous sale of five-year securities on Feb. 2. It auctioned three-year debt at an average rate of 4.037 percent, compared with 2.617 percent on March 1.

The yen pared losses against the dollar and euro after the Institute for Supply Management’s index of non-manufacturing industries, which account for almost 90 percent of the U.S. economy, decreased to 53.5 in April from 56 a month earlier. The Tempe, Arizona-based group’s measure was projected to decline to 55.3. Readings above 50 signal expansion. The Japanese currency fell earlier against most major counterparts after the Labor Department said initial claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. declined by 27,000 to a one- month low of 365,000 in the week ended April 28.

New Zealand’s currency, known as the kiwi, dropped against all of its 16 most-traded counterparts after unemployment exceeded the most pessimistic forecast. The jobless rate climbed to 6.7 percent in the first quarter from a revised 6.4 percent in the previous three months, Statistics New Zealand said.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair holds nearby $1.3150.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair holds nearby $1.6180.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair traded with increase.

This morning it is the turn of the European services PMIs to dominate the European data calendar. Italy at 0743GMT, then the final figures from France at 0748GMT, Germany at 0753GMT and the main EMU data at 0758GMT. Finally for Europe, at 1145GMT, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble delivers a speech at Ruhr University, in Bochum. UK data is mainly second-tier on Friday, starting at 0600GMT with the BDO High Street Sales Tracker. The main afternoon event is at 1230GMT when non-farm payrolls are forecast to rise 165,000 in April after the relatively modest 120,000 rise in March. The unemployment rate is forecast to stay at 8.2%. Hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.2%, while the average workweek is forecast hold steady at 34.5 hours. In Canada, the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index is due at 1400GMT. The, at 1425GMT, San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks to the California Bankers Association 121st Annual Convention. Late US data sees the 1900GMT release of Treasury STRIPS data.

Asian stocks fell, with a regional index heading for its first drop in eight days, as growth in China’s services industries slowed and employment reports from Europe to the U.S. and New Zealand fueled concern the global economy is faltering.

Nikkei 225 Closed

Hang Seng 21,225.33 -83.75 -0.39%

S&P/ASX 200 4,428.96 -6.95 -0.16%

Shanghai Composite 2,440.08 +1.64 +0.07%

Esprit Holdings Ltd., a clothier that counts Europe as its biggest market, slid 2.4 percent.

LG Display Co., the world’s No. 2 maker of liquid-crystal displays, sank 5.4 percent in Seoul after reports prosecutors investigating if it illegally obtained a rival’s technology searched its headquarters.

China Construction Bank Corp. and Bank of China Ltd. fell more than 3 percent in Hong Kong after Temasek Holdings Pte. sold shares in the Chinese lenders at a discount.

Resistance 3: Y81.80 (Apr 20 high)

Resistance 2: Y81.45 (Apr 27 high)

Resistance 1: Y80.55/60 (area of May 2-3 highs)

The current price: Y80.16

Support 1: Y80.05 (May 2 low)

Support 2: Y79.65 (May 1 low)

Support 3: Y79.35 (Feb 20 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9195 (Apr 19 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9170 (May 3 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9155 (May 2 high)

The current price: Chf0.9133

Support 1: Chf0.9115 (May 3 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9100 (May 1 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9070 (May 2 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.6300 (Apr 30 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6245 (May 1 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.6215 (May 3 high)

The current price: $1.6186

Support 1 : $1.6150/60 (Apr 27 high, May 2 low)

Support 2 : $1.6080 (Apr 25 low)

Support 3 : $1.6035 (Apr 20 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3240 (May 2 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.3205 (May 1 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.3180 (May 3 high)

The current price: $1.3155

Support 1 : $1.3120 (May 2 low)

Support 2 : $1.3095 (May 3 low)

Support 3 : $1.3070 (Apr 19 low)

Change % Change Last

Gold 1,636 -18 -1.06%

Oil 102.64 -2.58 -2.46%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 Closed

Hang Seng 21,225.33 -83.75 -0.39%

S&P/ASX 200 4,428.96 -6.95 -0.16%

Shanghai Composite 2,440.08 +1.64 +0.07%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3152 -0,01%

GBP/USD $1,6178 -0,11%

USD/CHF Chf0,9134 +0,01%

USD/JPY Y80,19 +0,10%

EUR/JPY Y105,46 +0,08%

GBP/JPY Y129,72 -0,02%

AUD/USD $1,0264 -0,57%

NZD/USD $0,8002 -1,04%

USD/CAD C$0,9884 +0,17%

00:00 Japan Bank holiday -

01:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement Quarter II

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index April +2.2% +1.2%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y April -0.6% _0.8%

07:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y March +0.8% +1.2%

07:50 France Services PMI (finally) April 50.1 46.4

07:55 Germany Services PMI (finally) April 52.1 52.6

08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (finally) April 49.2 47.9

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) March -0.1% +0.1%

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) March -2.1% -1.1%

12:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls April 120 160

12:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate April 8.2% 8.2%

12:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings April +0.2% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. Average workweek April 34.5 34.5

14:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index April 63.5 64.2

15:25 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks