WEEKLY REVIEW: next Fed’s interest rate hike ahead?

The main event of this week was the release of the U.S. labour market data for March on Friday. The data was mixed but showed that the U.S. labour market continued to improve. Wage growth was better than expected in March. That could add to the inflation pressure.

The U.S. manufacturing sector seems to recover, according to Markit Economics' and the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing purchasing managers' indexes.

It is unlikely that the Fed will raise its interest rate in April as the recent U.S. economic data would not be enough to justify an interest rate hike this month. But if the U.S. economy continues to improve, the Fed will likely raise its interest rate in June as some Fed officials mentioned this week.

The Fed Chairwoman Jante Yellen said in a speech this week that the Fed should be cautious in raising its interest rate but added that an interest rate hike was possible in each monetary policy meeting.

Other Fed officials also noted that the Fed should be cautious in raising its interest rate.

Oil prices remained in focus. Market participants are awaiting the meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC countries, which is scheduled to be in Doha on April 17. News reported on Friday that Saudi Arabia might not agree to freeze its oil output. Saudi Arabia's deputy crown prince Mohammed bin Salman said in an interview with Bloomberg that the country would only freeze its oil output if Iran and other major oil producers will participate in such deal. It remains exciting until the meeting.

Low oil prices and a weak global economic growth are likely to weigh on the U.S. economy.

It is likely that the currency pair EURUSD will rise toward the resistance level at $1.1500, if there are be negative news from the U.S. or there are be negative news from China and there are no negative economic data from the Eurozone.

If the U.S. economic data is better than expected and in case of the negative economic data from the Eurozone, the currency pair EURUSD may test the support level at $1.1300 or $1.1200.