BoJ Hawkish Move Prompts the Fed

The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) has gained 0.5% to 103.93 points this week, signaling continued strength amid expectations of extended monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which is set to meet this Wednesday.

The EURUSD pair declined by 0.4% to 1.08450 as the Greenback strengthened. This movement comes in response to the recent inflation data for February in the United States, which showed an unexpected increase to 3.2% YoY, up from 3.1% YoY in January. Additionally, the producer price index surged to 1.6% YoY, surpassing expectations and indicating a persistent inflationary pressure.

Investors were surprised by this uptick in inflation, leading to a sharp drop in bets on interest rate cuts by the Fed. Expectations for rate cuts in May fell to 11.0%, while bets for cuts in June decreased to 50.7%, down from 60.0% the previous week. The Fed has maintained that it needs certainty that inflation will be under control before considering rate cuts, but rising oil prices may complicate this outlook.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its interest rates to 0.00% from -0.10%, marking the first increase in 17 years. Additionally, the BoJ abandoned government debt yield curve control, signaling a shift towards a less accommodative monetary policy. This move aligns with a global trend of central banks moving towards tighter policy.

Given these developments, the U.S. Dollar is expected to continue strengthening. However, a firm downside trend for the EURUSD pair would require a dive below 1.08000. Until then, betting on Dollar strengthening may be premature.