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- NZD: RBNZ to cut 50bps at March 25 meeting followed by a 25bp cut In May - TD
NZD: RBNZ to cut 50bps at March 25 meeting followed by a 25bp cut In May - TD
eFXdata reports that TD Research discusses its expectations for the RBNZ policy trajectory.
"Compared with Australia, the NZ growth outlook is more positive unemployment at decade lows, wages growth at decade highs, a strong housing market supporting consumption, inflation near target, fiscal stimulus along with a weaker NZD serving as a buffer. However, the Bank cannot ignore global developments. Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby may have said monetary policy is not the right tool to address the impact of the coronavirus. But by the time the RBNZ meets on 25th Mar, the Fed is expected to have eased at a minimum 75bps and delivered as much as 100bps and the BoC appears prepared to match Fed moves," TD notes.
"With developments moving so quickly, we don't think the RBNZ can afford to be seen as being behind the curve. Accordingly, we now expect the RBNZ to cut 50bps at its 25th Mar meeting (an inter-meeting move is unlikely given developments so far but cannot be ruled out if the newsflow deteriorates) with another 25bps cut at its May meeting," TD adds.
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