Eurozone economic sentiment index fell sharply in March

According to the report from European Commission, in March 2020, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) fell dramatically in both the euro area (-8.9 points down to 94.5) and the EU (-8.2 down to 94.8 points). Also the Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI) plummeted (by 10.9 points to 94.1 in the euro area and by 9.7 points to 94.8 in the EU).

In the euro area, the strongest monthly decline in the ESI on record (since 1985) resulted from slumping confidence among consumers and in all the business sectors. The collapse was particularly strong in services and retail trade. Amongst the largest euro-area economies, the ESI plummeted in Italy (-17.6) and Germany (-9.8), and fell significantly also in France (-4.9), the Netherlands (-4.0), and Spain (-3.4). Importantly, in many countries the vast majority of survey responses were collected before strict containment measures were enacted to combat the spread of the Corona virus.

Industry confidence decreased significantly (-4.6), reflecting managers' crashing production expectations. The record decrease in services confidence (-13.3) was fuelled by managers' tumbling demand expectations, but also assessments of the past business situation and past demand deteriorated strongly. Behind the strongest decline on record in consumer confidence (-5.0) was an exceptionally strong fall in expectations concerning the general economic situation. The stark decrease in retail trade confidence (-8.1) was due to an unprecedented fall in retailers' assessment of the expected business situation. The comparably minor decrease in construction confidence (-2.7) resulted from managers' more pessimistic employment expectations and a somewhat lower assessment of the level of order books. Finally, financial services confidence (not included in the ESI) slumped (-15.0). Again, the fall was steepest in the assessment of demand expectations, but significant declines were also registered in the assessment of the past business situation and past demand.